Labor's quest: find a likable Democrat

AFL-CIO goes beyond issues, seeks candidate who can connect

By STEVEN THOMMA Knight Ridder News Service

Sunday, August 10, 2003

Chicago -- Rep. Richard Gephardt gets along with union bosses, but would working people want him in their living rooms? Would they buddy up to Sen. John Kerry or find him too aloof? And what about former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean. Is he a warm friend or a hothead?

As labor leaders ponder whether the full AFL-CIO should endorse a Democratic presidential candidate this fall and take sides in a primary contest for only the third time in history, they're asking these questions along with the usual ones about the candidates' positions on health care and the economy.

Both of labor's earlier choices -- Walter Mondale in the 1984 election and Al Gore in 2000 -- lost the general election. This time, labor leaders say, simply being on labor's side on issues such as trade won't be enough for a candidate to get their endorsement. This time, they want to be convinced they have a winner. In particular, they want a candidate who's likable.

"A lot of voters will vote for someone that they can relate to," said Andy Stern, the president of the 1.5 million-member Service Employees International Union, the largest in the AFL-CIO coalition. "George Bush passed that test. Al Gore didn't do as well. Bill Clinton passed that test, and Bob Dole didn't do as well."

All nine Democratic candidates courted labor leaders such as Stern at a gathering of AFL-CIO leaders last week in Chicago. Each wants support from the individual unions that make up the AFL-CIO.

Gephardt, a favorite of industrial unions for his long opposition to free trade agreements that they blame for sending jobs overseas, already has won endorsements from 10 AFL-CIO unions out of 65. But what Gephardt really wants is the pre-primary endorsement of the full AFL-CIO, which would bring him a lot more money and volunteers in crucial early primary states. And such an endorsement requires votes representing two-thirds of the AFL-CIO's 13 million members.

Decision due in October

The AFL-CIO announced Wednesday that it would decide in October whether to endorse a candidate before the primaries. That gives Gephardt two more months to muster more support -- and his rivals that much more time to try to block him.

"We have a significant majority of organized labor supporting us," said Gephardt adviser Steve Elmendorf. "But we're not at two-thirds yet."

Whether Gephardt can get there will depend in part on unions such as Stern's service employees group and Gerald McIntee's American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees. They're the largest in the coalition, the least bound to industrial trade policies and among the most politically pragmatic.

Stern has devised a two-step screening process to get beyond questionnaires and polls and explore candidates' likability.

First, he has assigned a young filmmaker, younger than 25, to follow each of the nine candidates around. The purpose is to catch unguarded moments on tape and capture "the soul" of each candidate. The tapes will be shown to 1,500 of the union's most politically active members at a meeting in September.

Next: the 'hang test'

At the September meeting, each candidate also will be asked to meet for an hour with 30 to 50 union members for a casual, private session. Rather than screening the candidates on issues, the union members will subject them to what Stern called "the hang test: can they hang out with real voters."

Based on regular checks with members, Stern said, the top three choices so far are Dean, Gephardt and Kerry. All three meet the threshold for proposing a detailed plan to expand health care with a way to pay for it, he said, and all three are competitive in fund raising and polls.

But each still faces tests about whether he can connect with voters, Stern said.

For Dean, a recent surge in fund raising and polls shows "his grades are improving," Stern said. But Dean still has to assure labor leaders he can connect with average Americans and win a general election matchup with Bush.

Gephardt's proposal for universal health care was a "home run" that helped the veteran lawmaker pass one labor test, Stern said, "which was what does Dick Gephardt really stand for." But Gephardt, too, has to show he can connect with voters in a way that could carry him to victory.

Kerry: Too aloof?

As for Kerry, there's lingering concern that he may be too aloof to turn on working Americans, Stern reported. "He's obviously brave; he's obviously smart," Stern said. "But is he a leader? Can he be our president? Does he believe in things passionately?"

Likening the decision to gambling, Stern called Gephardt and Kerry safe choices. Supporting either would be like betting on red or black in roulette, he said, each with a good chance of winning but neither offering much chance of a big payoff.

Dean, he said, is the biggest gamble of the top three candidates, based on his vocal opposition to the war in Iraq. If the war goes badly, Dean will look good. But if it goes well, his fortunes could fade.

"The war issue is something I don't think anybody knows the answer to," Stern said. "Being for Howard Dean, as somebody said, is like putting all your money on Red 22 in roulette. You could hit big time. This guy is high risk."

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