Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, The: Russia's political roulette routine to many

If in watching President Boris N. Yeltsin's latest game of political shuffleboard, you feel you have seen this movie somewhere before, you are almost right. It was called "Groundhog Day," the 1993 film where Bill Murray plays a man who is condemned to relive the same events over and over again.

So it is here in Moscow where ordinary citizens and political commentators are wearily picking their way through the debris of what some were still calling a government crisis, despite the fact that Yeltsin has changed his government so many times in the last 17 months -- four to be exact -- that the word "crisis" has lost all meaning.

One well-known political analyst, Vyacheslav Nikonov, marveled at the turnout for a news conference last week. "I am surprised at the attention," he said, "since this latest government crisis is the most predictable, understandable and boring of all government crises" -- to date, he might have added.

Russian newspapers have become so blase that many started their first day of reporting on Yeltsin's replacement of one prime minister for another with a resounding, "I told you so," under headlines that ranged from the "The Agony of a Dinosaur" to "Total Eclipse." It is true that many journalists had been predicting the fall of Prime Minister Sergei Stepashin (mind you, as one of several possible scenarios) for days, even weeks, but Communist leader Gennadi Zyuganov took the prize for political prescience by reminding anyone who would listen that he had predicted it last May when Stepashin first took office.

Now, as attention turns to the more serious issue of an ugly little war on Russia's southern border, the politicians are left to take stock of the latest gamble by the man who has once again shown his determination to dominate the Russian political stage, no matter the cost to the country.

As a transitional prime minister serving for a lame-duck president, Vladimir V. Putin's personal qualification for his latest job seems to be the least of anybody's concerns. As for his policies, he has indicated that they will differ little from those of Stepashin, which after three months in office weren't all too clear.

Most analysts and politicians expect Putin to be confirmed by the Parliament's lower house, where deputies are eager to get on with business of running for re-election next December. For this they need to hold onto their seats, free plane tickets, phones and faxes, all of which would be taken away if they repudiate the president's choice three times, forcing him to disband the Parliament.

In that sense, the change at the top of Russia's government promises to make no difference to the political status quo, except in one respect: Yeltsin has said he wants to see his latest prime minister succeed him as president when he is supposed, according to the Russian Constitution, to step down next July. This week, Yeltsin once again promised to do just that.

How Yeltsin expects Putin to get elected is still a mystery. The president himself is deeply unpopular and has no political party at his command. His influence is waning rapidly, as became clear last week when the Kremlin tried, and failed, to stop Moscow Mayor Yuri M. Luzhkov from joining forces with a group of powerful regional governors, thus taking a commanding lead in the bid for the political center.

The new "Fatherland-All Russia" alliance -- which soon may be boosted by former Prime Minister Yevgeni M. Primakov's long-awaited return to politics -- was, by all accounts, the catalyst for the dismissal of Stepashin, who seems to have been judged by Yeltsin to be too weak, too neutral or both to fight the Kremlin's battles and become a viable presidential candidate.

By naming Putin, Yeltsin has signaled that the battle will go on. The weapons of choice will probably be the media -- much of it under the control of the Kremlin and its ally, financier Boris A. Berezovsky -- and the flow of money from the federal treasury. The targets will most likely be Zyuganov's Communists and Luzhkov's new alliance, with or without Primakov at its head.

In resorting to these tactics, several analysts have noted the Kremlin will be refighting the war of 1996, which it won with Yeltsin's remarkable come-from-behind victory over Zyuganov in the second round of presidential elections. But the situation this time is different, starting with a thoroughly disgusted electorate that probably wouldn't buy a used car that came recommended by their outgoing president.

The December Parliamentary elections will set down an important marker for the Yeltsin Kremlin because the Constitution forbids a new Parliament from being disbanded in its first year. That means an end to the government merry-go-round next year, since the Parliament would be unlikely to accept a new Yeltsin-nominated prime minister, should Yeltsin find Putin wanting.

The real test of Yeltsin's gamble comes next year, in the race for the post-Yeltsin presidency. Discounting Zyuganov's chances, Nikonov predicted that "at present, the only credible future presidents of Russia are Primakov, Luzhkov and the man who occupies the post of prime minister."

If the race were held today, Putin would be the dark horse. "True, dark horses sometimes win," said Nikonov. "But usually they lose. That is why either Yeltsin and his family are ready to take a big risk by staking on Putin, or Putin is a temporary figure, or there will be no presidential elections in the country."