Sunday Herald, The: The Clyde : A liquid assetSiren voices are warning of a collapse in

HUDDLED under an umbrella on the Clyde's silver pontoon, Charlie Gordon isn't put off by the dull skies or the driving rain. Not long into his new role as the city of Glasgow's Clyde regeneration spokesman, the former council leader looks beyond the mist to the boarded-up buildings of Tradeston and imagines waterfront bars and cafes. He visualises pavilions dotted along the river rented out to restaurant franchises. He sees boats whizzing passengers back and forth across the water from Tradeston to the International Financial Services District (IFSD); from Pacific Quay to the Scottish Exhibition and Conference Centre (SECC); to Glasgow Harbour and back again. He sees a six-mile long stretch of river within the city limits heaving with people living, working and playing.

His critics will undoubtedly respond with incredulity, pointing to the acres of empty or derelict banks. The unco-operative weather alone is enough to guarantee that the Clyde will never be a Sydney Harbour.

But according to Gordon, we are "more than halfway" through achieving Glasgow's pounds-4 billion river dream. More than 30,500 people will live along the river's edge between Glasgow Green and Braehead by 2007, with thousands more expected to follow in later years. Another 30,000 will work there by 2010.

"Finance is in place and planning permission is in place for a development, the fact that bricks haven't been laid is a secondary issue, " says Gordon. "I have sometimes been disappointed by a lack of recognition of the scale of what has been achieved this far because we've been looking at other city waterfronts and I'm not aware of a European or North American city where this extent of waterfront regeneration is happening simultaneously."

In fairness, property tycoons from Ireland, Manchester, London and Scotland have now secured positions along the Clyde. After years of planning and preparing, building is kicking off in earnest and the most striking feature in the coming months could very well be the sheer number of cranes punctuating the skyline.

Construction crews have set out their huts to begin work on the pounds-20 million Finnieston Bridge; the skeletons of the forthcoming BBC and Scottish Television headquarters are now visible at Pacific Quay; and property consultant the MacKenzie Partnership could soon be joining the site with its own 30,000sqft building.

Across the river and further west, pounds-25m has been allocated for a programme of roadworks beginning in March that will lower the A814 expressway and create a road system and pedestrian bridge that connects Partick to Glasgow Harbour.

Manchester developer Dandara is preparing the land to build another 770 flats at the same site; while next door, young professionals are finally moving in to the first phase of waterfront apartment blocks after two years of construction.

But will signs of an economic slowdown gathering on the national horizon derail the momentum? And if the dozens of projects in the pipeline actually come to fruition, will Glasgow truly have achieved its intended goal: to return the river to its people?

Gordon admits that the Clyde programme has benefited from "coming at the right point in the economic cycle". A residential property boom has gone a long way to give developers that extra confidence to take a chance on an unproven location.

But house price inflation is now dropping;

high street retailers are suffering. As oil prices creep ever upwards along with manufacturing and business costs, changing macroeconomics beg the question of whether the next phases of development will be able to attract hotel operators, office tenants, retailers and housebuyers all operating on tighter budgets.

Gordon believes now that the ball is rolling, it cannot be stopped. "I know that virtually every site has the funding and the consent already in place. If we are going into a recession, I think the waterfront will weather the storm because we are so far advanced in the business cycle. And where any recession might hit home would be in other parts of the city's economy.

"A lot of the developers on Clyde's waterfront are big beasts. They've got big levels of capitalisation and are well set-up to weather the storm."

Several hundred miles away in Dublin, John Smyth is one of those beasts. He and his brother Noel, both wellknown Irish property players, are confidently pushing on with their pounds-300m vision for three city blocks in Tradeston.

Both John, as an architect, and Noel, in his previous incarnation as chief executive of developer Dunloe Ewart have been heavily involved with regenerating Dublin Docklands and can't wait to get their hands on a new waterfront scheme.

"Fifteen years ago, Dublin Docklands was very reminiscent of the Clyde, particularly in Tradeston, " says John, who is leading the development.

The Smyth brothers were attracted by the "superb" location of their site, which will be connected by a pedestrian and cycle bridge to the IFSD directly across the river.

Once the project gains planning consent, work will begin within three months on the first block of 313 apartments, along with a restaurant, bar, shops and offices. Each block has been designed by different architects - two of them based in Glasgow - to ensure a varied appearance. The residential units will range in price and size to create a diverse neighbourhood that is home to an estimated 3000 people.

He predicts that the entire three-block scheme - totalling 955 flats and including a health and fitness centre, a creche and more shops and restaurants - will be finished within five years regardless of economic conditions.

"I've been involved in architecture for 20 years and development for 10 years in London and Dublin. In a development of this scale, whether the market is dipping this year, next year or the year after is irrelevant, " he explains. "This is a prime location. It will hold its value and its appeal."

But even during the last few buoyant years, the plans for the river have had to morph and reshape to meet the unpredictability of market forces.

Developer Bruce Walker is well aware of how variable the property game can be.

While shoppers maxed out their credit cards over the past two years, boardroom executives were sitting on their hands when it came to deciding on office expansion or relocation in Glasgow.

His office building at 200 Broomielaw in the IFSD has been sitting empty for 18 months, despite its marketed "spectacular views of both sides of the Clyde".

In November 2003, Gordon and Scottish Enterprise Glasgow chief executive Ron Culley and representatives of the Scottish financial services industry travelled to the London Stock Exchange to convince the City of the merits of setting up shop in the branded IFSD. The team put on a good show waxing lyrical about the area's unparalleled pounds-50m telecommunications network from BT and providing testimonials from existing tenants Morgan Stanley, Abbey, Direct Line and Hymans Robertson.

But the world's major money institutions simply weren't biting and with the Scottish Qualifications Authority and Learning and Teaching Scotland naming the Optima building on Robertson Street as its preferred relocation site it has been espoused by some that the IFSD could become a Whitehall rather than a Wall Street.

Walker says the district is unlikely to be either. "As a developer, we're not only talking to financial services companies, we're talking to all sectors, " he says. "It's not going to be Wall Street on the Clyde. These are nice soundbites but the reality is it will be companies from all different sectors."

He believes the area has been plagued for the last two years by a Glasgow-wide office market slump and could be revived with a few big deals. Insurance industry giant Aon recently secured a 15-year lease at the pounds-30m Sentinel building at the heart of the district. With the Royal Bank of Scotland locating a new call centre there, a turnaround could be just around the corner.

"I have no regrets building here. I still believe it's a fantastic area. I think in five years' time people won't recognise the waterfront." Walker goes so far as to say he would love to get his hands on another plot, but there's simply none left to be had.

"There are some concerns about the economy but my feeling is that these signs of a downturn will be short-term and that underlying all that, the economy is sound."

The government's shock decision to allow only one super casino licence in Britain instead of an expected eight also demonstrates how development plans can head off course in an instant. Two of the Clyde's largest regeneration sites - Glasgow Harbour and Queen's Dock 2 - were competing for a chance to spin the roulette wheel. Executives from the Scottish Exhibition and Conference Centre (SECC) planned to sell off land at its site to global casino operator Kerzner International to help pay for the cost of its 12,500-seat arena. Michael Closier, chief executive of the SECC, still holds out hope that the government will change its mind now that it has won the election. "Everyone I've spoken to has said that's an untenable position. The government will have to have more than one casino licence. It's not competitive to have just one and it will end up being challenged at the European Union level, " he explains. The licensing selection committee is expected to begin its task in October so any changes are likely to happen before then.

If the situation doesn't improve before construction begins on infrastructure improvements, Closier will proceed with a car park that can later be fitted into the casino building. While Gordon has mooted that the city might be willing to help out the SECC with its funding shortfall for the arena, Closier concedes that he may have to pare back landscaping ambitions or stagger some of the work. He is unwilling, however, to believe that a few less favourable house price surveys will scupper plans for a 1700-home village also to be built on SECC land by Elphinstone.

"Let's not use short-term indicators and make long-term predictions, " he says.

"We're not relying on (buy-to-let) investors to do what we want. The phasing of the housing between 2007-2013 is to meet the demand we see. We won't have all the houses come out at once. We don't want a glut of housing in the marketplace."

However, "a glut of housing" is exactly how some people would describe what has been built along the banks of the Clyde so far. At the sharp end of much criticism is Glasgow Harbour, 130 acres of brownfield land run by ports operator Clydeport (owned by Peel Holdings).

Dr Rowland Atkinson, director of urban studies at Glasgow University, says there is a real danger that the "mixed-use" developments along the waterfront could become yuppy playgrounds that shut out the rest of society.

"I think of mix in terms of social integration. At Glasgow Harbour, the suggestion initially was there would be a mix of residential and commercial activities.

What I see going on is really bland, pretty unmemorable buildings being thrown up, trying to capitalise on a short-term property bubble by providing residential units only for high-income individuals.

"Local community groups feel it doesn't integrate (with Partick for example); that it's a gentrification of the area. It would have been wonderful, even it it's tokenistic to say 5-per cent of Glasgow Harbour had to be social housing."

Stuart Gulliver, who was chief executive of Scottish Enterprise Glasgow until 2000, also argues that the city could be in real danger of having swathes of apartment blocks along the river and nothing else.

"Once you've got all your mixed bits of development coming in later phases based on the residential development, if that market starts to wane all the notion of retail and offices and entertainment may not happen, " he says.

"It would have been nice to see development being phased so that a certain number of flats and retail and maybe a hotel would have been built rather than saying everything depends on getting as much money out of the flats as possible. If things should start to tangle, they'll be saying we can't do that anymore."

This kind of talk infuriates Glasgow Harbour chief executive Euan Jamieson, who reveals that Clydeport has invested pounds-80m in the area already. "I think that displays a stunning lack of understanding of what's going on, " he says. "The amount of money being spent aimed at bringing Partick and Broomhill down to the Clyde and opening up the river to these communities is self evident."

On top of its roadworks programme, Clydeport is spending pounds- 600,000 to pull down the 60ft railway embankment along South Street that currently blocks the river views of Broomhill residents. There will also be a 2km-long walkway along the edge of the entire development. He says the company will follow through with priming the site for commercial development but admits that it will be several years before a large number of shops and leisure uses are available to the public.

Clydeport is currently trying to increase the 200,000sqft of retail space it has been allocated. Industry sources say parent company Peel Holdings wants to squeeze more money out the site by building a smaller version of its Trafford Centre in Manchester. Covering an area the size of 30 football pitches, the shopping centre is a temple to consumerism combining retail, restaurants, theatres, a swimming pool and performance stages. While Jamieson refuses to confirm these details, the prospect raises the point that developers by their very nature are out to make the biggest profit possible.

To that effect, market demand could be the real incentive for developers to make their projects more inclusive. The recently reworked masterplan for the Pacific Quay Developments site has abandoned its original business park campus and sea of car parking for a more community-inspired approach. Alan Somerville, development director of Grosvenor, a partner in Pacific Quay Developments, says if planning approval is granted the offices will be joined by an affordable boutique-style hotel, and 300 more reasonably-priced apartments overlooking a 10-acre park.

"If you look up the Clyde corridor, it's a plethora of two- bedroom flats. There's a question about the sustainability of that in the medium term. Quite a lot of stuff in the Clyde isn't selling. So much of it has been bought by private investors that are now selling it on. We're going to have a combination of sizes and styles. We actually want people to live there."

Masterplanner Tom McInally, who has been involved in the plans for Glasgow Harbour and is now working on a regeneration scheme in Govan, says that the sheer scale of the Clyde waterfront guarantees that its development will twist and turn along a number of different paths before reaching completion. Compromises will be made; projects will fall through and change. But as long as the city's planners keep a close watch, he says, Glasgow will have Councillor Gordon's vision of a bustling waterfront in 10 years' time.

"It can't be done overnight, " he says. "It's a slow process. It's the rebuilding of an entire urban fabric."

GLASGOW HARBOUR

Timescale: 2001- 2012

End value: pounds-1bn

Partners: Glasgow Harbour Ltd (city council and Peel Holdings), Scottish Enterprise Glasgow, Strathclyde European Partnership Projects underway: Phase 1- 650 flats are nearing completion by various housebuilders; developer Dandara on site to prepare land for Phase 2 - 770 flats;

pounds-25m infrastructure and roadworks Still to Come: Clydeport (Peel Holdings) is currently reworking its commercial and leisure plans. But in the end, the entire project is expected to house 6000 residents and employ 10,000 people

RIVERSIDE MUSEUM

Timescale: 2007-2009

Budget: pounds-50m

Lead partner: Glasgow City Council Architect Zaha Hadid is exhibiting various design proposals for the museum which is also part of Glasgow Harbour

GOVAN GRAVING DOCKS

Timescale: 2005-2010

Value: pounds-150m

Partner: Bishop Loch

Project: 100,000sqft of leisure uses (restaurants and bars etc) employing around 400 people to be built alongside 1050 flats housing about 2400 residents Glasgow City Council has approved the masterplan; main infrastructure works could begin this autumn

QUEEN'S DOCK, SECC

Timescale: 2003-2013

Value: pounds-550m

Partners: Scottish Exhibition Centre Ltd. , Elphinstone, Kerzner International

Project: a 12,500-seat arena (opens 2009); a pounds-162m destination resort casino, hotel and car park; pounds-350m urban sustainable village with 1700 homes, school, creche and shops

PACIFIC QUAY

Timescale: 2015

Value: more than pounds-450-500m

Partners: Scottish Enterprise Glasgow, Pacific Quay Developments, BBC, Glasgow City Council Completed developments include Glasgow Tower, Glasgow Science Centre, Nr1 Pacific Quay, The Four Winds Building and Festival Park with BBC's new HQ, SMG's new HQ in progress at the current time.

Work begins this year on another office building on Pacific Quay Developments's land. That consortium is also seeking outline planning permission for another 400,000 sqft of offices; 300 apartments; a mid-range boutique hotel; redevelopment of 10acre park; and infrastructure improvements

MAVISBANK QUAY

Timescale: 2003-2005

Budget: pounds-7.5m

Developer: Persimmon Homes (West Scotland) Completed: 14-storey residential tower comprising 72 flats on the south bank of the River Clyde

FINNIESTON BRIDGE Completed: 2006 Budget: pounds-20m Partners: Scottish Enterprise Glasgow, Glasgow City Council, BBC Project: Construction has begun on a new road bridge across the Clyde, linking Finnieston Street on the north bank to Govan Road on the southSPRINGFIELD QUAY Timescale: 2004-2006 Value: pounds-40m Developer: Heron City Leisure Group Planning permission has been granted to extend the complex with a casino operated by London Clubs International, restaurants, and multi-storey car park. The casino expects to open in 2006 and will be centrepiece for a wider plan to revamp the complex with themed bars and restaurantsGLASGOW INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL SERVICES DISTRICT

Timescale: 2004-07

Value: pounds-1.6bn (plus pounds-32.5m being spent on public realm works)

Located: Between historical St Vincent Street business area and the Broomielaw district along the north bank Partners: Glasgow City Council, SDI, SFS, SE, Strathclyde European Partnership, BTe locations Projects completed: Radisson SAS, public realm improvements, 200 Broomielaw (Walker Group); Atlantic Quay 6 (Wilson Bowden); Optima Building (Crown Dilmun); Sentinel Building (Kenmore); Central Exchange (Cala Properties);

Aurora building due at end of 2005 (Commercial Estates Management)

LANCEFIELD QUAY

Partners: Glasgow City Council, Miller, Cala and FM Developments

Projects completed: 261 of 321 two and threebedroom duplexes and penthouses on Lancefield Quay, Finnieston Street;

River Heights apartment block with 104 residential units on the corner with Hydepark Street (completed August 2005) 11

BROOMIELAW/TRADESTON PEDESTRIAN BRIDGE

Timescale: 2004-2007

Budget: pounds-35m for bridge and pavilions pounds-8m for Phase I of public works

Partners: Scottish Enterprise Glasgow, City of Glasgow Work begins on elliptical pedestrian/cycle bridge in January 2006; walkway and landscaped areas on north bank reorganised; reconstruction of derelict river wall on southbank and development of underground car park; erection of pavilions for both embankments

TRADESTON

Timescale: 2004-2012

Expected total value: pounds-300m

Developer: Alburn Tradeston (Noel and John Smyth) The redevelopment of three city blocks, including 955 one, two and three- bedroom apartments; waterfront restaurants and bars, offices, creche facilities and health and fitness centre.

Currently waiting planning permission but hope to begin work on first block by the end of 2005

CUSTOM HOUSE QUAY

Timescale: 2004-08

Expected total value: pounds-120m

Developer: Clydeside Properties Situated on the north bank, the site comprises Custom House Quay, Custom House Gardens and Carrick Quay Proposed: A landmark tower on the axis of Buchanan Street plus residential blocks to provide 368 residential units, including a key worker building with a nursery. There will also be a pavilion-style building with possibly an art gallery and cafe; restaurants and commercial space and public space fronting St Andrew's RC Cathedral connected to new Clyde Walkway. The developer is waiting for planning permission