Insight on the News: Of Nature's Horror and Political Calamity

Why do some people survive but others don't? A twister touches down and blows lives away but leaves a person here and there untouched on a street full of destruction. Lightning strikes and fells one man but his companion is left unscathed. Why?

In the aftermath of the horrific earthquake Aug. 17 that knocked the hell out of Turkey's western and most-populated cities, including Istanbul, those who survived unhurt are asking that question as they mourn the dead and struggle with the guilt survivors nearly always feel.

Hours after the awful temblor had subsided and left mayhem in its wake, I scrambled to make contact with people whom I know in Turkey, a country I love and have worked in and visited many times. With phone systems down or overloaded, many hours passed before I could establish whether anyone I knew well was among the dead.

The next day, an Istanbul friend of mine e-mailed me about the "pain and anguish in the air." My dear friend, her husband and young daughter had survived (thank God) but later she wrote to me of how haunted she felt. "We are still in a big shock. The fact that we cannot do much for those who are still under the ruins is killing me. The difference between us and them, after that horrible 45 seconds, is the fact that our buildings lasted. It sounds like Russian roulette to me. What is this and why?"

My mind went back to the 1990 earthquake in Iran. Whole villages in the north disappeared in that one and as many as 40,000 may have died. The tableau of suffering was terrible. Again, the survivors there questioned why they survived while others didn't. I also thought of other escapes and close calls related to me over the years. During the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s a veteran war correspondent was standing near the fighting with three other reporters. A mortar landed close by and all three of his colleagues died. He walked away without a scratch but to this day remains disturbed by his good fortune. Did God intervene to save him? If so, a miracle for him but not for them. And why was he so different?

As the weeks go by Turkish survivors of the horror that visited their country, their families and their friends will reach different conclusions about what dictated the "difference between us and them." For some the protective hand of God will explain all -- they'll either discover a faith they never had or the belief they did have before in divine benevolence will deepen.

For others, more mundane explanations will suffice. They will argue an element of fluke was involved and that pure accident determined Russian roulette-style who died and who got through.

And for many others, no doubt, their response will turn on which buildings collapsed and why. Already there are signs that there will be political consequences from this quake. The worst-hit areas, especially in Istanbul, appear to be in poor sections of the city where older and/or shoddily constructed buildings are predominant. These are the districts where Islamist political groups and extreme left-wing organizations traditionally have drawn much of their strength. It isn't hard to predict that the anger the poor may feel at their disproportionate losses well could translate into further support for the powerful Islamist party of Necmettin Erbakan.

How well the government copes in the aftermath of the earthquake -- whether the cleanup is efficient -- could determine the future of political Islam in Turkey. An early and honest inquiry into why some buildings collapsed and others didn't would be advisable. The government and the secular parties need to be seen engaged in trying to ensure that any future natural disasters strike the rich and poor equally. New building codes should be drawn up and reconstruction work should be prioritized toward poor districts.

The Turkish government should learn from history. There are indications it won't. Those weak buildings that claimed the lives of many were built by construction companies linked to the major parties. They knew their buildings were in breach of many a regulation. Also, the government has been woefully slow in establishing a centralized center to coordinate relief efforts.

Natural disasters have changed the course of politics in many a country. The earthquake earlier this decade in Mexico City contributed to the falling away of the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party in the capital -- their electoral support was eroded as the poor perceived they suffered more than the rich both from the quake itself and throughout the cleanup operation.

In the weeks and months to come what happened and why will dominate the thoughts of Turks, both collectively and individually. Good can come. Those in power can show their determination to effect change. Individual survivors can turn horror to use too -- whether they decide they survived because of God's intervention or for more prosaic reasons. They can draw this lesson: Don't waste life -- relearn its importance and what you do with it.