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The momentum of lotteries becomes particularly troubling for opponents because the gambling industry has wrapped itself around much of America's political leadership. House Leader Richard Gephardt's chief fundraiser, David Jones, has enlisted Mirage Resorts owner, Steve Wynn, in an effort to raise $1.5 million in soft money for upcoming congressional campaigns. Wynn has given at least that much to Republicans, but like many other casino tycoons, he knows that a good way to win in politics is to bet on every horse in the race. An aide to Henry Hyde was covertly offered $10 million by Primadonna Resorts (see Memo of the Month) in return for landing them a casino license in Illinois; the plan was only foiled when a man chasing an unrelated conspiracy theory stumbled upon the critical files in a trash can. Senate Minority Whip Harry Reid (D-Nev.) unabashedly admits that he owes his career to gambling interests; Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-Miss) is deeply involved in the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) that, according to the non-profit watchdog Public Citizen, received $1.26 million from the gambling industry in 1997-98. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), the man commanding the jihad against campaign finance reform, has raised at least $1 million for the GOP in the last three years from the gambling industry.
To see how clearly this money can burn up an open political process, consider what happened in March of 1998, when Sen. Dan Coats (R-Ind.) proposed eliminating the federal tax deduction for gambling losses--a tax deduction which counts money lost on the blackjack table as equivalent to money donated to Habitat for Humanity. Within five days, casino interests came up with at least $450,000 to donate to the NRSC and both the Democratic and Republican leadership grabbed their golden hatchets and worked to kill the bill before it could be debated. Sen. Reid promised to gut the bill with amendments. Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) immediately denounced it. Trent Lott tried to work out compromises that could railroad the bill before it came to the floor. According to one Republican aide cited by Public Citizen, "Lott did not want us to get down there on the floor and debate it, because it was very difficult to defend." Not surprisingly, the bill died a sudden death--just like virtually every other attempt to regulate gambling in the public interest. A bill to give the casino industry a special tax exemption for free meals provided to workers made a slightly different journey one month later. Senator Lott slipped it, without debate, into a House-Senate conference version of the IRS Reform Bill.
Selling Sloth
The trouble with lotteries, however, extends well beyond Gtech and the gambling industry lobbying machine. By adopting lotteries, state governments put themselves in the awkward and self-defeating position of having to betray the values that they usually hold dear.
First of all, lottery officials rely on deceptive advertising of the sort that state governments normally try to harness. The whole business of lotteries depends on convincing people that their number might come up--in fact that their number will come up if only they play enough. After all, lottery officials reason, if people don't buy tickets there isn't as much money to fund education. The result is advertising like one television spot in Connecticut that showed a smiling young man: "When I was younger I suppose I could have done more to plan my future. But I didn't. I guess I could have put some money aside. But I didn't. Or I could have made some smart investments. But I didn't. Heck, I could have bought a one-dollar Connecticut Lotto ticket, won a jackpot worth millions, and gotten a nice big check every year for 20 years. And I did! I won!" A voice-over followed as the young man grinned, "Overall chance of winning is one in 30." One in 30, of course, was the chance of winning a small prize and a smile from your convenience store owner, not of striking it rich.
Unlike other sweepstakes and raffles, state lotteries are not required to publish the honest odds of winning. Why don't they? Because the odds are virtually zero. Perhaps the best example of the likelihood of success comes from the North American Association of State and Provincial Lotteries, a pro-lottery lobbying organization seemingly oblivious to its own irony. `Anyone can be struck by lightning any time, any day. You can only win Powerball if you buy a ticket and then only on drawing days ... Here's something to think about. Of the people struck by lighting in 1995, some were golfing, some were picnicking, fishing, boating or hiking--not one was playing lotto at the time."
States that run lotteries also focus their efforts, and in many ways their deception, on the people who are most susceptible to their message--the people who the state normally tries the hardest to support: the poor. One Massachusetts study found that the average resident of relatively unaffluent Chelsea spent $455 a year on the lottery while residents of nearby, prosperous Weston spent only $30. Taking advantage of this bias, an advertising plan for Ohio's SuperLotto read, "Schedule heavier media weight during those times of the month where consumer disposable income peaks.... Government benefits, payroll and Social Security payments are released on the first Tuesday of each calendar month."
States also often try to sell sloth as a way to convince potential customers that a lottery ticket offers a free ride to the high life. A 1996 Massachusetts state lottery ad contrasted two possible paths to millions on parallel sides of a poster. The first option: "Start studying at about seven years old, real hard. Then grow up and get a good job. From then on, get up at dawn every day. Flatter your boss. Crush competition ruthlessly. Climb over backs of co-workers ... Do this every day for 30 years, holidays and weekends included. By the time you are ready to retire, you should have your money." The second option: two lottery tickets.
Worst of all, state lottery officials have incentives to turn moderate lottery players into compulsive gamblers. Five percent of the population buys 50 percent of all lottery tickets and these people need constant fixes. Although state lotteries started out 20 years ago as simple, uninspired raffles (write your name on the back of this piece of paper and one day we will tell you if you have won), lottery officials soon realized that, in America, instant gratification sells. In due course, states started promoting instant games, supergames, and even started running flashing casino-like games. The worst of the lot is high paced poker played on video terminals--frequently referred to as "video crack" because of its addictive powers. "Almost without exception, my video poker patients report not excitement but anesthetized nothingness. It's a twilight-zone experience for them," says Robert Hunter, an expert on compulsive gambling. Video poker is run by the governments of eight different states. "There was one machine that I could confuse the most," said Betty Yakey to The Washington Post. Yakey, a 65-year-old widow, wiped out her grandson's college saving fund (set up by the sale of her family farm) by playing state-sponsored video poker in Louisiana for five or six hours daily. "When I played that machine, I didn't worry about nothing."
Sleeping Watchdogs
Although state lottery ads are not regulated by the FTC or the Better Business Bureau, the press, particularly television, has not stepped in to play a watchdog role. One would be hard-pressed to find a TV station that explains the insane odds against winning when showing lottery drawings on the 7 o'clock news or that reports on state lottery ads with the same vigor with which it peers into political campaign commercials. There have been some exceptions, but the trend veers away from intense scrutiny.
The euphoric side of lotteries does of course fit better into our common television format: One winner jumping and screaming plays better than 20 million poor saps kicking the floor after they lose; a busty woman picking glowing balls out of a hopper has more appeal if there isn't a voice in the background explaining the futility of the charade. But another explanation for this one-sided coverage deserves consideration. State lotteries spend more than half a billion dollars a year on advertising on television, radio, posters, and in any other rewarding medium. The Maryland state lottery, for example, bought well over $1 million worth of ads with major television stations in the first nine months of 1999. As with all media advertising, there is scant direct proof that the purchases influence coverage, but commercial television producers know where every dollar their station or network gets comes from. And like lottery advertisers who can justify their machinations by the greater good created in the long run (manipulative advertising may be bad, but it does help education), the news media have the same argument on hand. If they can't maintain their revenue stream, they won't be able to fund their public services.
Unfortunately, the propaganda is getting through to Americans. According to a July 1999 poll by the Consumers Federation of America and Primericam, 27 percent of Americans believe that winning the lottery is their "best chance to obtain half a million dollars or more in [their] lifetime." This is a grim statistic which would surely change if states were to cancel their lottery ads and instead publicize the wonders of compound interest: $50 invested weekly with a 9 percent return would yield over $1 million in 40 years.
Betting on Schools
In his victorious race for the governorship of South Carolina, David Hodges milked the Georgia lottery issue as well as one could, arguing over and over again that mimicking the HOPE program would be his state's ticket to success. One of his ads showed a convenience store clerk in a Georgia Bulldogs T-Shirt, "Here in Georgia, we appreciate you South Carolinians buying our lottery tickets, over $100 million worth. Those Georgia tickets y'all buy pretty much pay for our world-class preschools."
Hodges is right to want to imitate Georgia's educational success but he is wrong to draw inspiration from the way Georgia funds its HOPE program. Instead, he should draw inspiration from one of his predecessors, Richard Riley.
In 1985, Governor Riley, now Clinton's Secretary of Education, decided that his state needed an educational overhaul. He didn't, however, look to a lottery. He convinced leaders in the business community that more skilled laborers would help South Carolina's commerce. He then convinced teachers' unions to support merit pay by offering them a 16 percent pay increase. Riley then mailed out thousands of copies of his plan to voters across the state and described his plan in hundreds of speeches. He pushed his plan through a reluctant state legislature by twisting arms, asking constituents to phone their representatives and arguing his case until he was hoarse. Although he had initially met with near-universal opposition, Riley's reforms passed and were paid for with a 1 percent increase in state sales tax. A RAND corporation study that year declared that Riley's plan was "the most comprehensive single piece of legislation improving education to come out of any state." SAT scores went up and more and more of the most talented high school students decided to continue their education.
Next fall, South Carolina voters will have the chance to accept or reject a referendum on Gov. Hodges' plan for a lottery to fund educational improvements. There's little doubt that gambling interests will provide the referendum with strong financial support. But even so, there are encouraging signs that voters are starting to turn against gambling and realizing that, as Riley did, it is possible to create good programs without funding them through lotteries. In Alabama, voters recently rejected Don Siegelman's lottery referendum based on the HOPE program only a year after electing him in no small part because of his lottery proposal. Even in South Carolina, the state supreme court and state legislature recently banished video poker, against the wishes of Governor Hodges, with polls indicating that 60 percent of the population was in favor of the decision. Of the 25 state referendums on gambling since 1994, anti-gambling advocates have won 19.
That's good news for South Carolina and it's not terribly surprising: Pro-gambling soundbites work well when there's a lot of other stuff on voters' minds. Anti-gambling arguments work well when there's time to think. This is why governors can often use the issue as a wedge to get elected when there are scores of other issues on voters' minds; but it's also why referendums fail more often than not when they are put under the microscope
South Carolinians will have plenty of time to consider the issue next fall and, if I were a betting man, I'd put my money against the initiative. After all, the HOPE program helps to create winners; but lotteries, no matter how well-intentioned, make losers of us all.
Research assistance provided by Nicole Morgan.
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