FOR nearly 30 years, Bill Carrick has been in the political trenches, guiding Democratic candidates and initiative campaigns. His name may not be familiar to voters in Los Angeles, but some of his political ads are. His "roulette wheel" spot helped doom the San Fernando Valley, secession movement. Carrick who grew up in South Carolina, headed that state's Democratic Party before moving onto the national stage as political director for Sen. Edward Kennedy. He was national campaign manager for Rep. Richard Gephardt's first run for the presidency in 1988. Since coming to California in 1989, he's counted Sen. Dianne Feinstein, L.A. mayors Richard Riordan and James Hahn, and former L.A. District Attorney Gil Garcetti as clients. He also worked on both of President Clinton's campaigns and returned to run the media campaign for Gephardt's just-ended presidential run. He's now working on ads for Proposition 56, the initiative that wouM lower the threshold for the state Legislature to pass a budget from the current two-thirds to 55 percent.

Question: With Sen. John Kerry's wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, how do you see the race for the Democratic presidential nomination unfolding?

Answer: I think John Kerry is going to be the nominee. It's merely a question now of how quickly he'll reach the required number of delegates. I just can't see how he gets derailed at this point. Howard Dean is too badly damaged and John Edwards hasn't shown enough strength to challenge him. It would take a miracle at this point to knock John Kerry off track.

Q: Not even Edwards, drawing strength in the South?

A: I think Edwards may be able to win one or two states, but that's simply not going to be enough. He's now in a situation where he's got to win South Carolina and must flood the state with resources to do so. That means he has less resources he can devote to other big states, like Arizona and Missouri.

Q: This was your fifth presidential campaign. What's different this time?

A: The most interesting dynamic is that the Democrats are focused on who would be the strongest candidate to go up against Bush. Sizing up the candidates up against the Republican opposition has always been a factor, but it's never been as central to voters' decision-making as it is now. Our focus groups showed that many people may agree philosophically with Howard Dean, for example, but they voted for John Kerry because they think he is morn electable.

Q: What's driving this?

A: No question, there is a continued dislike for President Bush among the Democrats. They want to get back the White House more than getting the person they agree with most there. In most periods in American history, one party has tended to dominate the political landscape. There have been very few periods with this kind of parity between political parties. The two parties and their constituencies are now more alienated from each other. Democrats don't like Bush and the Republicans don't like the Democrats.

Q: Why did Richard Gephardt do so poorly in Iowa?

A: Two things happened. Early on, the Dean people decided to go for broke in Iowa and New Hampshire. But in Iowa, Dick Gephardt stood in the way. So the Dean folks made Gephardt a target of their attacks, and they did this in a reckless way. The Dean folks didn't launch attacks against John Kerry and John Edwards, just against Gephardt. So what you had here was a classic murder-suicide.

Q: Didn't you respond to those attacks?

A: Yes we did briefly. But all that did was exacerbate the sense that Dean and Gephardt were attacking each other. We stopped alter we figured out it wasn't working. But getting back to your original question, something else was at work, too. Gephardt was around a long time; he was a very familiar face in Iowa. And there was a hunger for something new.

Q: What exactly do you do in a campaign?

A: My primary function is to produce and place media fads) for campaigns. In most campaigns, that's pretty, time consuming. But the truth is, in order to figure out what you're doing for advertisements, you have to spend a lot of time on the fundamental strategy and message of the campaign. So I start very early in the campaign, trying to figure out just what will move the voters. Then I have to figure out how best we can communicate with them.

Q: Has it gotten more difficult to figure out what's moving voters?

A: Yes, definitely. First, there's the complexity of the advertising world nowadays: cable, broadcast, radio, Internet. When 1 was growing up, everyone in America had a universal campfire: Sunday night they all watched the Ed Sullivan show together. On the broadcast news, yon either watched Walter Cronkite or Huntley and Brinkley. Now, people's attention is all over the lot. The other piece of it in the political context: voters are more cynical than they've ever been about the political process itself.

Q: How is the Internet reshaping what you do?

A: The Interact allowed us to communicate with lightning speed. Every night 1 was able to look at the numbers from the phone banks. All this makes campaigns much more efficient. Externally, the amount of web site traffic that all the candidates have gotten is enormous. The Democrats, after years trying to figure out how to combat the Republicans' grip on talk radio, seem to have their own medium. But the overwhelming number of people still gets the sense of campaigns from television.

Q: Was there any way you think Gray Davis could have saved his job?

A: Gray was very naive about the recall. He first felt that he could get on the ballot. I had a conversation with him and he was very surprised about this whole recall. Even as late as July he felt the recall would not get on the ballot. But it was clear that Darrell Issa and others were going to put the money up. They were going to pursue this regardless. It was all part of this partisan polarization. Davis simply wasn't prepared. Once it got on the ballot, it became more of an inevitability, particularly when the Republicans offered a more moderate candidate in Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Q: The state's Democrats are still shell-shocked. How do they recover and win back the Statehouse in 2006?

A: The state's problems are still as serious as ever. The key for the Democrats is to be seen as the responsible opposition. The voters have a sense of hopefulness about Gov. Schwarzenegger. They want to see him succeed. So, lot the next year at least, the Democrats must position their opposition based on issues, not for strict political gain. In other words, if the budget cuts are too deep, the Democrats should say that. But it would be crazy for anybody to think they could embark on a politically opportunistic strategy fight now. There will be time enough for that later.

Q: But state Treasurer Phil Angelides is campaigning against Schwarzenegger's bond package.

A: I think Phil runs the risk of being seen as too knee-jerk in his opposition. I know he has some legitimate concerns about the bond debt, but he has to be careful that he isn't seen as a knee-jerk opponent of the governor on everything.

Q: Through the initiative process, Schwarzenegger seems to be using the carrot and the stick with Democrats.

A: I've done a lot of initiatives, both on the yes side and the no side. The process is very difficult. Besides, putting everything on the ballot is a bad idea. Initiatives are often flawed in their composition. And threatening initiatives isn't smart political strategy: You run the risk of it turning into a personal referendum on your performance. He would be much better off trying to work with the Legislature.

Q: Did you always want to be involved in the behind-the-scenes running of campaigns?

A: Early on, when I was in high school and college, I thought I would run for office myself. But I got into the campaign side of things and found that it was incredibly interesting. It's the most fascinating thing 1 ever got involved with. I have enormous respect for people who run for office, but it's not for me.

INTERVIEW

William "Bill" Carrick

Title: Founding partner

Company: Morris & Carrick Inc.

Born: Richland, Wash., 1950

Education: Political science major, University of South Carolina (left school early to work on a campaign)

Career Turning Point: At age 10, going to presidential candidate John F. Kennedy's South Carolina headquarters

Most Admired People: Senators Ted Kennedy and Dianne Feinstein; Rep. Richard Gephardt

Hobbies: Running, viewing sports and movies, reading

Personal: Lives in Hollywood Hills; married 30 years to Beegie Truesdale; no children

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