Almost as predictable as the setting of the sun, California wine is subject to cyclical patterns that sometimes can drive restaurateurs crazy.

In 2001, California was so flush with wine it was being called a lake. By early 2003, a $2 wine raised its head in retail shops and consumers, many of them hit by a declining economy, began trading down. And restaurants, still feeling the squeeze put on by the 9-11 disaster, saw their inventories as stagnant money-losers.

But then, the basic essentials of economics, as expected, kicked into place. Vineyards were abandoned, plantings of new acreage declined, and before long we began hearing about a wine shortage, similar to the shortages we faced in 1997 and 1998.

And what are we to think about the sort of wines that people are ordering with their meals? At one point, chardonnay led the world, with merlot racing to the front so fast that restaurants had to stock a lot more of these wines than they ever imagined.

By 2003, sauvignon blanc and syrah began to pull alongside the leaders, with white Rhone varietals coming along on the outside.

So is merlot really on the decline? Have the high prices for Napa cult cabernets deadened the market for finequality red wine?

TRENDS: SOPHISTICATED OR SIMPLE?

Charting trends in the industry is a nightmare for even the best of marketing managers. Wineries employ high-priced MBAs to handle this vital chore, but it's not unlike predicting the weather: sometimes the most sophisticated of formulas ends up being out-done by the simple act of moistening a finger and holding it up to the breeze.

Restaurants have about as difficult a job of predicting how to deal with this crisis as any they face, partially because stocking a vast amount of wine that moves slowly is an economic nightmare and can pose some insurmountable problems later on.

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Here's a brief look at what restaurants faced in 2004 with California wines, along with a kind of mini-prediction about what strategies may be operating by 2005. Place your bets, the roulette wheel is spinning.

Pinot Gris: This wine, hot by-the-glass pours in 2002 and 2003, Italian Pinot Grigio (notably the famed Santa Marguerita) came under scrutiny by savvy consumers in 2004, mainly as prices got out of hand. It's one thing to be on the cutting edge, in 2001, by ordering a glass of Santa Marguerita by name. It's quite another when the wine rose in price so high that a glass cost double digits. Consumers soon learned that pinot gris from California, Oregon, or Washington could offer similar (if not greater) pleasures.

PINOT GRIS: CHARDONNAY ALTERNATIVE?

As a by-the-glass wine, pinot gris still figures prominently, notably as a chardonnay alternative. This was verified not long ago when E&J Gallo rolled out literally hundreds of thousands of cases of pinot gris under the Rancho Zabaco and MacMurray labels. Others of excellence include Morgan, Handley, J, Benessere, and from Oregon King Estate in the Eola Hills and Willamette Valley.

Chardonnay: To be sure, the name brands (Kendall-Jackson, Sonoma-Cutrer, Grgich Hills, Cakebread and a dozen others) must be maintained, but a growing list of secondary names are offering reasonably priced wines that compete at slightly lower price points.

The newcomers are not those with a California appellation, however. Savvy wine-oriented restaurants are looking for wines with the appellations of Santa Barbara County, Russian River Valley, and Carneros as they refine their offerings, even if the brand name on the bottle isn't as recognizable as one of the more prestigious names.

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Chardonnay remains a tough category to buy, and brands still answer many of the questions. That means Au Bon Climat, Chateau St. Jean, Shafer, and Silverado still have a following. Others that are making a true mark on the industry with quality at a fair price include Gundlach-Bundschu, Handley, Navarro, and Trefethen.

HOT SAUVIGNON

Sauvignon Blanc: This is a hot category lately, with many restaurants showing better profitability with this grape than with Chardonnay.

The "New Zealand style" of this wine is popular with many consumers, and among the best in California in that style are from Geyser Peak, St. Supery, and from a new entrant, Sauvignon Republic. But there are literally dozens of other excellent versions such as Chimney Rock, Kenwood, Rancho Zabaco Reserve, and Chateau St. Jean.

Syrah: A word of caution is prudent in this up-and-coming varietal, since so many top wines are about the same in terms of flavor and aroma. Price is one issue. The average wholesale case price of a "quality" syrah these days is $200 to $300, yet a number of almost-there brands can be obtained at $150 to $200 and the quality is almost that of (or in some cases exceeds) better-known brands.

Best bets in reasonably priced syrahs are from either Lodi (slightly lower end) or from California's central coast, notably Monterey County. In the higher echelons, Napa versions are pretty expensive, but nearly as high in quality and often higher are better brands from Columbia Valley in Washington State.

Among the best of the category over the last year are Eberele, Rosenblum, Sebastopol, Morgan, and Kunde.

DECLINING MERLOT

Merlot: The trend for this varietal is declining, and the numbers that just a few years ago were essential (a dozen merlots on every wine list) no longer are applicable. A key here is that brands are more vitally important than they once were, and keeping a small number of "hot" brands seems prudent.

That said, price is an issue as well. It's a great idea to have, for instance, a bottle as important as Shafer Merlot, but it would have to sell on most wine lists for $85. Consumer confidence is such that few merlots would sell expeditiously for that sort of price. A better bet would be Freemark Abbey, which could be listed for $45 to $50 and have nearly equal impact.

Other top merlots include Pine Ridge, Whitehall Lane, Hahn Estates, Groth, Geyser Peak, and MacRostie.

Cabernet Sauvignon: Other than the high-end selections, much of which must be made as a personal statement, the best bets in the mid-price range these days are some of the brands from California that are usually fairly priced, such as Silverado, Hess, Silver Oak, Beaulieu, and Mondavi's regular bottlings. Also, Sonoma producers make some excellent wines in the mid-priced range that are attractive offerings, such as B.R. Cohn, Arrowood, Geyser Peak Reserve, St. Francis, and Chateau Souverain. And don't forget Paso Robles for great value wines, such as Eberle, Justin, and Meridian.

Zinfandel: This is an odd category since few of the "cult" versions ever make it to restaurant lists, and some of them wouldn't sell well anyway, given the prices they would have to carry.

Still, a solid wine list should have quality zinfandels, and other than the single-designation wines from Ridge and Ravenswood, some of the better versions are from the Sierra Foothills along with Gundlach-Bundschu, Gary Farrell, Grgich Hills, Frog's Leap, Carol Shelton, Castoro, Victor Hugo, and St. Francis. One bargain effort is Earthquake from Lodi, an excellent wine that has won a number of gold medals at major fairs.

Pinot Noir: A tough category to buy for, especially since pinot buyers tend to be finicky, and thus stocking only the highest-scoring wines would seem like a mandatory theme. But doing that means getting only one style of wine--big.

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The best versions of pinot noir to accompany food are from Russian River Valley (such as Dutton-Goldfield, Gary Farrell, Pellegrini, Williams-Selyem, and Sebastopol Vineyards); Carneros (Buena Vista, Cuvaison, Gundlach-Bundschu, MacRostie, Artesa); Santa Rita Hills (Koehler, Sanford, Clos Pepe), and Santa Lucia Highlands (Morgan, Arcadian). From Mendocino, try Handley, Navarro, Husch, and Goldeneye.

CREATIVE CHOICES

There are some categories where you can get creative and interesting. However, these wines are best for restaurants with an enthusiastic and knowledgeable staff and a clientele that is open to trying creative choices. This would include some varietal wines that would be a hard sell to those who are shy about ordering adventuresomely and who stick to the tried and true. The following are some suggestions for wines that can turn a humdrum wine list into one that shows creativity and panache and which can also energize some marginal wine drinkers.

Rose: Pink wine is making a big comeback in major cities, especially where it is sold as the wine that can go with either fish or meat. Literally dozens of California wineries are now making a rose wine and they can be perfectly balanced offerings that work with a wide array of different styles of food.