Chicago Sun-Times: Size of risk dictated `Millionaire' pullout

A shuffle through the Gaming mailbag:

Q. I really enjoyed watching you on "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire," but your decision not to go for the $250,000 answer leaves me with a question. When you write about casino games, you try to steer people toward games with small house edges. Didn't you walk away from a game with a big player edge? If you analyzed it as a casino game, what do the numbers say?

Al, Naperville, via e-mail

A. Funny you should ask. That very question was the topic of a lengthy discussion on a video poker bulletin board online.

I'm hesitant to take what was an exciting, fun, emotional event such as winning $125,000 and become overly analytical after the fact. But since you asked, here goes.

I frequently caution players to bet within their bankrolls. A video poker player with $100 for a session can't afford to play dollar machines. A blackjack expert with $100 can't afford to spread bets from $5 to $50, no matter how well he counts cards. On "Millionaire," a player with $125,000 who goes for a $250,000 question drops to $32,000 if incorrect. That means a risk of $93,000- 74.4 percent of that $125,000 bankroll. Without something much better than a 50-50 shot, that's a quick road to gambler's ruin.

The player edge is large. Given enough trials, the average expected outcome would be a win of at least $141,000, with the "at least" noted to account for the possibility of moving on to $500,000 or $1 million questions. That's a player edge of at least 17.2 percent.

Give me a casino game with a 17.2 percent player edge and a 50-50 chance of winning on each hand, and I'll divide that $125,000 bankroll up into betting units of about $5,000 per hand, minimize my risk of going broke on a short losing streak and maximize my chances of winning big in the long run. The edge works in my favor hand after hand after hand.

But "Millionaire" is not a long-run game, it's a one-shot deal, and you can't minimize the risk on one "hand." There is no long run for the probabilities to balance out, so you'd better be fairly certain of the answer before you take the plunge.

Did I run all that through my mind as I was trying to decide whether to continue on the show? No way. That's an after-the-fact analysis for those who have been asking. In the hot seat, my thought process was, "I think I know the likely answer, but I'm not really certain, and I can really use the $93,000."

By the way, another question I've been asked a lot lately is "How much of that will go into your gambling bankroll?"

The answer: very, very little.

Q. At Majestic Star, the group of $1 video poker machines that include a few 9-6 Jacks or Better games also has at least one 20-10- 6-5 Joker's Wild two pair or better game with a 5,000-coin jackpot for five coins played on the natural royal flush. This returns 99.92 percent with optimal strategy-which is very difficult-making it easily the best Joker game in this area.

Howard Stern, via e-mail

A. Stern, a local gaming analyst and video poker aficionado, frequently passes on useful information from area casinos. For those who don't understand video poker lingo, he's talking about a Joker's Wild game in which the pay table starts at two pair-there is no payoff on high pairs. The numbers refer to a 20-for-1 payoff on four of a kind, 10-for-1 on full houses, 6-for-1 on flushes and 5-for-1 on straights.

Majestic Star has made big improvements recently in its dollar video poker. It still could use some work on quarters. Stern notes that the best quarter game in the house remains 9-7 Double Bonus Poker on some Game King multiple-game machines. With expert play, 9- 7 Double Bonus, paying 9-for-1 on full houses and 7-for-1 on flushes, returns 99.1 percent.

BOOK SIGNINGS: I've had a good time meeting readers recently as I've signed copies of my books at the Empress Casinos in Hammond and Joliet, Majestic Star in Gary and Hollywood in Aurora.

My tour of area casinos continues with signings at the Harrah's boats Monday and Tuesday. On Monday, I'll be at Harrah's East Chicago from 5 to 7:30 p.m. Then on Tuesday I'll go to Harrah's Joliet from 4 to 7 p.m. Both operations are introducing my newest book, The Video Poker Answer Book, into their gift shops, but I'll also sign copies of The Casino Answer Book and The Slot Machine Answer Book.

At both Harrah's, I'll start with question-and-answer sessions before I sit down to sign books. I hope to see many of you there.

Sunday in Real Life: Three Card Poker.

E-mail John Grochowski at BetKol@aol.com