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US Department of State Dispatch: US export controls in a changing global environment - address by Am

No series of events in recent years has captured the interests and hopes of the world like those that led to Eastern Europe throwing off the oppressive mantle of communism and beginning the long and difficult voyage toward democracy and market-based economies. Glasnost and perestroika are changing the Soviet, Union, as well. As a result, there has been a significant liberalization of export controls, notably at the COCOM [Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls] High Level Meeting in June 1990 and again at the High Level Meeting of May 23 this year where agreement was reached on a new, shortened core list of truly strategic equipment and technology. The core list is scheduled to go into effect on September 1 of this year.

Yet, the world still faces daunting challenges that preclude the complete elimination of export controls. Soviet repression of the Baltics demonstrates the need for caution in relaxing export controls to the Soviet Union. Moreover, even with recent reductions, Soviet military spending just last fall was higher than when Mr. Gorbachev came to power. The Soviet ICBM [international ballistic missile] force is being upgraded, including continued deployment of the SS-24 silo-and railbased ICBM, the SS-25 road-mobile ICBM, and a new 10-warhead version of the SS-18 (with greater yield and accuracy). Bear H and Blackjack bombers are being deployed with longer range cruise missiles, and qualitative improvements are being made to the Delta-IV and Typhoon ballistic missile submarines, respectively carrying 16 and 20 nuclear missiles. On the strategic defensive side, the Soviets have upgraded their dual-layered Moscow ABM [anti-ballistic missile] system and maintain an anti-satellite capability. Research on even more advanced systems such as lasers underscores strong Soviet interest in military uses of space.

Even more troubling is that the Soviet military modernization is occurring during a period of great political unpredictability. No one is certain whether the political and economic reform initiated by Gorbachev will continue or be successful; nor can we know how long Gorbachev will retain control or the type of regime that might follow. In these circumstances export controls clearly constitute an essential form of insurance against something going wrong.

Our concerns are not confined to the Soviet Union. China's policy on missile and nuclear proliferation also calls for caution and continuing attention. Also, events in the Persian Gulf underscore the need for effective national and multilateral controls on goods and technologies that can contribute to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

In response to growing concerns over proliferation of such weapons, the Administration launched the Enhanced Proliferation Control Initiative (EPCI) aimed at improving our ability to control dual-use goods and technologies useful for the production of chemical and biological weapons and missiles. Significant progress was made at the May meeting of the 20-century Australia Group, which is involved in controlling equipment and materials used in the production of chemical and biological weapons and in developing a list of dua;-use equipment that should be controlled. The Australia Group list is patterned largely after the President's enhanced proliferation control initiative. Once again, US leadership has galvanized action within the world community.

Similarly, the US initiative to gain multilateral agreement to control dual-use goods and technology used in nuclear weapons productin has gained increased acceptance. Continuing discussions with key suppliers of such equipment has revealed a growing consensus on the need to establish a multilateral framework to prevent exports that might aid proliferant countries in developing nuclear weapons capabilities.

Partly in response to events in the Persian Gulf, several new countries have joined the Missile Technology Control Regime. The image of civilians donning

gas masks in anticipatin of a chemical weapons attack via ballistic missiles during the Persian Gulf War brought home with the renewed forcefulness the need to preven the acquisition of such missile systems by unstable regimes.

In November 1990, President Bush called for efforts to improve the multilateral application of export controls on high performance computers. Based on that initiative, the United States and Japan on June 6 concluded consultations on super-computer export controls. The main goal of the US-Japan consultations was to maintain controls on exports of supercomputers to destinations of concern while reducing the licensing burdens on exports to reliable destinations. For exports to countries that pose a national security or proliferation concern, such as countries that have not signed the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, strict safeguards against misuse are required. Depending on the destination and circumstances of a particular export, some applications may be denied. In addition, a definition of supercomputers was established as "any computer with a CTP (composite theoretical performance) equal to or greater than 195 million theoretical operations per second (MTOPS)."

The policy dilemma facing the Administration is to find a balance between excessive controls that would impede legitimate export trade and those controls which the US and other major world suppliers find necessary to support common security objectives. Inherent in striking this balance is the need to adjust our export control system to the new realities in formerly communist countries and to devise effective multilateral controls to address the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

Nowhere is this balancing act more delicate than in COCOM, and nowhere has US leadership been move visible. As a result of decisions taken at the COCOM High Level Meeting on May 23, we have lived up to the President's promise to develop a new core list of truly critical goods and technologies. One key to the success of the core list process was the full participation of US industry in the development of US core list proposals.

Some may question why greater liberalization was not achieved in certain areas, for example, computers, and machine tools. The answer is complex, but I can assure you that the US core list proposals were subjected to the most intense and broadest technical review of any COCOM proposals in recent memory by all concerned US agencies, including the Joint Chiefs of Staff at the Pentagon. At the suggestion of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the US adopted a new measure of military criticality--the degree to which acquisition of a good or technology by the Soviets would result in the closing of a critical technological gap. A good example is the night-vision device which, as we learned from the Persian Gulf war, played a critical role in the coalition victory.

As part of our core list review, we thoroughly reviewed foreign availability of everything from avionics to laser systems. Wherever we found wide availability outside COCOM, we readily agreed to decontrol such commodities. Further, where we found Soviet capabilities equal to or better than previous control levels, we also sought decontrol. But, where dual-use goods or technologies are unique to COCOM suppliers, and are of gap-closing strategic significance, we pressed the allies to retain controls.

General features of the new core list include greater specificity in the description of controlled items, alignment of control parameters with current industry technical standards, decontrol of readily available "off-the-shelf" items, and improved harmonization with the customs tariffs system.

In the case of computers, we determined that there was no real foreign availability outside COCOM for computesr above a CTP of 23. Similarly, we found no foreign availability for machine tools with accuracies greater than 6 microns. As a result, the COCOM control limit was placed just below those levels. I note that the control parameter for computers was changed from PDR (processing data rate) to CTP because CTP is a more accurate measure of a computer's capability.

Agreement on the core list will result in substantial relaxation of controls on computers and related equipment. Nearly all personal computers and minicomputers will be decontrolled, along with their normal complement of related peripherals. We will remove from control nearly all peripheral equipment, other than high-speed disk drives, very high-performance graphics, and signal processing equipment.

Continued from page 1.

Controls over standard integrated circuits have also been greatly reduced. All DRAM memory chips are decontrolled as are most standard 32-bit microprocessors used in personal computers. Controls on integrated circuit manufacturing equipment and silicon materials are likewise liberalized. Finally, all civil television recorders which meet certain international standards are decontrolled.

As a final note regarding our COCOM controls, I would like to address the issue of telecommunications systems and technology. We technical and policy experts have worked long and hard to find ways that will allow US companies, as well as our allies, to install modern phone systems in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. We risk serious compromise of our security interests, however, if we export to the USSR for internal use top-of-the-line telecommunications equipment and technologies. Until the situation in the Soviet Union settles into a more predictable and promising pattern, we simply must hold the line on approvals to ship high-speed microwave and fiber-optics systems that could dramatically enhance Soviet strategic capabilities.

There is also good news on telecommunications. Controls have been relaxed to permit digital switching and allow the Soviets to build public digital voice and data networks with features and functionality equivalent to those installed in the West right now. The Soviets will be able to acquire such services as facsimile, cellular telephone, electronic mail, and voice mail with all the features currently enjoyed by users in the West.

With regard to international links, COCOM agreed to allow 156 megabit/64 qam (quadrature amplitude modulation) microwave systems to be exported at national discretion to any country for use in connection with international gateways. In the same vein, agreement was reached to permit the export under the favorable consideration procedure (which means presumption of approval) of fiber-optic lines to any country up to its international border at 565 megabits (mbps)/1550 nanometers laser wave length for international traffic.

Taken together, these changes will allow vast improvement in communications between the USSR and the West, thus fostering growth in business as well as personal ties, and also permit the Soviet Union to acquire a telecommunications system comparable to Western standards of the early-to-middle-1980s.

For all destinations but the Soviet Union and North Korea, the core list will also allow the export, again under the favorable consideration procedure, of microwave links at 156 mbps/64 qam for internal use (that is, not restricted to international traffic) and, at national discretion, fiber-optic links at 45 mbps/1370 nanometers.

Finally, in a major liberalization for Poland, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia, COCOM countries agreed that all telecommunications equipment except encryption devices can be exported at national discretion.

We believe that these liberalizations are consistent with our shared interests, while allowing for significant commercial activities.

The COCOM partners also discussed the question of removing Poland, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia from the list of proscribed destinations. We determined that decisive progress in this vein would depend upon these countries enforcing controls as effectively as do member countries, both on goods imported from member countries and on indigenously produced goods. In addition, each country must have a sound legal basis for implementing its export control system in order for it to be removed from the proscribed destination list. For the time being, Poland, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia will be subject to a "special procedure" that establishes a presumption of approval for all but the most sensitive equipment to those three countries. The message that we are sending is that the US and its COCOM allies are committed to aiding these three countries in their efforts to modernize their economies through transformation to a market-based system.

Relaxation of export controls cannot be achieved without a concomitant effort to improve levels of enforcement. These are the higher fences that must be built around fewer goods. At the High Level Meeting it was agreed that the Common Standard Level of Effective Protection would enter into force by January 1, 1992. The common standard establishes the criteria for an effective enforcement regime for controlling goods and technologies against diversion to unauthorized uses and destinations. Application of the common standard will permit further progress in easing East-West licensing by allowing additional items to be included in the intra-COCOM license-free-trade zone.

Rapid technological advances that make equipment obsolete in only a few years and the emergence of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction as a key issue were important factors in our thinking relative to redefining the COCOM core list. But President Bush and senior advisers in the Administration also recognized that export controls have a critical bearing on our economic study. If supplier countries do not apply and enforce controls in an even manner, than those controls not only are ineffective but also adversely affect our balance of trade and economic competitiveness. Such a potential threat to our economic security is just as much a national security matter as more traditional concerns about strategic arms balance, regional conflicts, or weapons development.

The National Academy of Sciences' recently released study "Finding Common Ground" concluded that export controls should not be discarded in the glow of the moment but neither should we return to the rigidity of the past. The initiatives taken by the Administration in the areas of non-proliferation and COCOM have, I believe, met that challenge. While perhaps not meeting the expectations of all interested parties, the changes announced at the recent COCOM High Level Meeting are a major step forward in finding the balance between increased trade and maintaining a strong national security posture. We want to adjust our export control system to the new realities in formerly communist countries and changes in the Soviet Union. At the same time, we want to do so in a way, and at a pace, that continues to safeguard our national security against both old and new dangers.

Where do we go next? Now that the core list exercise is completed, I believe industry needs to know what kind of export control system to expect. I cannot give you a detailed guide, but I can shaer some insight into the Administration's thinking.

The core list does not establish a red line. We will continue to approve the export of items on the core list if they are demonstrably for civilian end use and are suited therefor. We and our COCOM allies in 1990 approved almost 1,600 licenses, worth about $1.7 billion for civilian end-users in the Soviet Union. For example, we approved the export of high-speed computers for Soviet nuclear power plant safety as well as the sale of the most modern commercial aircraft available on the market today. Further, the President made a commitment to the Soviets, as well as to industry, that we would consider favorably shipments of goods and technology but would upgrade the Soviet energy production sector, particularly oil and gas exploration and development. Over the past year, we have approved approximately 95% of all general exceptions cases, and even greater percentages have been approved for Poland, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia. Under the new "special procedure," there will be a presumption of approval for most exports to those three countries. Clearly, the ability to export does not rest entirely on the question of whether or not an item is controlled.

The Soviet market is not the only potential new arena for business. Poland, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia, in particular, are moving toward full integration into the Western economic system. Surprising as it may seem, it is the US that has taken the lead in pressing for major liberalization of the controls on exports to these countries.

COCOM remains an effective and important instrument of national security because we have been able to adapt it to changing circumstances. We will continue to do so, for we recognize we can do no less and retain support from our allis and from industry. In completing the core list, we have created a new international industrial list that controls only the most critical goods and technologies needed to maintain the existing technological lead between Western and Soviet-based military systems, a lead which was cleary visible during Operation Desert Storm. The Department of Commerce estimates that the new list represents a 65% reduction in the number of controlled goods over the pre-June 1990 control list. We estimate that there will be a 70% reductioni in license applications for computer exports alone.


Continued from page 2.

The future is full of both promise and risk. Changes in Eastern Europe and, we hope, in the Soviet Union hold the promise for further liberalization of export controls and additional business opportunities for US firms. We remain committed to striking a balance between national security and removal of barries to trade. We intend to rely on the history of COCOM and on the cooperation of industry, our allies, and partners in finding that balance.

COPYRIGHT 1991 U.S. Government Printing Office
COPYRIGHT 2004 Gale Group


Copyright©2005 All rights reserved.
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