Chicago Sun-Times: Even the 'best bets' will lose in long run

Last week, I wrote about betting systems that win more often than they lose, but still lose money in the long run. Making a second bet to cover a weakness in another, such as betting any 7 to go along with the field bet in craps, opens another weakness.

You don't need to go to the lengths of combination bets or betting progressions if your goal is simply to win more hands than you lose. There are several bets, notably in baccarat and craps, that accomplish that all by themselves. But they, too, lose money in the long run.

The best of the frequent winners--and one of the best bets in the casino--is the banker bet in baccarat. Banker wins 45.86 percent of the time, player wins 44.62 percent of the time and 9.52 percent of hands end in ties. Banker and player bets push on ties--that is, the wagers are returned to the bettors with no wins or losses--so the banker hand actually wins more often than it loses.

How can the house make money on such a proposition? By charging bettors a 5 percent commission on winning bets on banker. That leads to a house edge of 1.06 percent if all hands are considered, or 1.17 percent on hands played to a decision.

That's one of the best deals in the casino. Basic strategy players in blackjack can narrow the house edge to about .5 percent. Craps players can come within .8 percent or less if they take free odds with their pass or come bets or lay the odds with don't pass or don't come. And certain video poker games have house edges of less than 1 percent with expert play. But average blackjack or video poker players, and craps players who stray from the best bets, face higher house edges. So do those who play roulette, Caribbean Stud, Let It Ride, Three Card Poker, slot machines or just about any other game.

The other main baccarat wager, the player bet, also is one of the best in the house, even though it loses more often than it wins. The house edge on player is 1.24 percent if all wagers are considered, or 1.36 percent of hands played to a decision. The wager on ties, however, is a bet to avoid, with an astronomical house edge of 14.4 percent.

Commissions also are the method the house uses to get the edge on six more bets that win more often than they lose--the six lay bets on the place numbers in craps.

Lay bets are place/buy bets for wrong bettors. If you lay the 6, you're betting the shooter will roll a 7 before the 6.

When you make the lay bet, you pay the house a commission-based on 5 percent of your potential payoff. When you win, you are paid at true odds--5-6 when you lay the 6 or 8, 2-3 when you lay the 5 or 9, or 1-2 when you lay the 4 or 10.

Let's say you lay the 6 for $24. At 5-6 odds, if the shooter rolls a 7, you win $20. So when you make the bet, you pay the house a $1 commission, representing 5 percent of your potential $20 win.

Lay bets are paid off at true odds, so there is no house edge other than the commission. If you made lay bets from here to eternity, and the house did not charge a commission, you would break even. But the commission brings the house edge to 2.44 percent on 4 or 10, 3.23 percent on 5 or 9 and 4 percent on 5 or 6.

The house has those edges even though the player wins more often than not. With two six-sided dice, there are six ways to roll a 7 and only 5 ways to roll a 6, so the player who lays the 6 will win six times for every five losses. Same with 8s. Lay bettors will win six times for every four losses on 5 or 9, and six times for every three losses on 4 or 10.

Take a close look at that comparison on 4 or 10. The player is twice as likely to win as lose when laying the 4 or 10, but when the payoffs and commission are taken into account, the house still has a 2.44 percent edge on the bet.

Not all wagers that involve paying the house a commission on winnings give the player a better than 50-50 shot at winning. In pai- gow poker, players pay a 5-percent commission on winning bets, but also lose more hands than they win.

The house gets a small edge in the game because the dealer, or banker in jurisdictions that permit player-banked games, wins "copy" hands. (In a copy hand, all cards are of equal rank. For example, if both player and dealer have King-5 as the two-card "second high" hand, that's a copy hand.)

Let's say the player wins the five-card "high" hand and the two- card hand is a copy. The overall bet is a push, because the dealer/ banker wins the copy. But if the dealer/banker wins the high hand and the two-card hand is a copy, the dealer/banker wins. That alone would be enough to give the house a tiny edge of about .3 percent. Add the commission, and the overall house edge against the player becomes about 2.8 percent.

That's an edge the casino can live with. Without it, and without the surcharge on winning bets, the house would soon have to take these betting options, well, out of commission.