Chicago Sun-Times: Law of Averages not the final word on wagers

Q. You always recommend making wagers that have less than a 2 percent house advantage. OK, sound logic, but why is it that a gambler can still win, even on those big slot jackpots when the Law of Averages says they won't?

William R.

A. The Law of Averages does not have time to work during most brief casino visits. That said, you should never put your faith in the heady belief that happy aberrations in gambling odds will happen in games that carry a huge house advantage. The keen player never ignores the mathematical odds working for or against him. But every gambler's timeline (table time) is still relatively short, be it three hours or three days, so anything can happen -- even for the serendipitous winner of the super slot pot. Those fortuitous winners don't go home because the Law of Averages worked in their favor, most likely it was because the Law of Averages didn't.

Q. A slot attendant told me a particular video poker machine has not hit in more than six months. You have stated in the past that the chances of hitting a royal are about 40,000 to 1. My guess is this machine has probably seen more than 40,000 plays over that period. Wouldn't it be logical to assume the machine is now due to hit a royal?

Karen K.

A. I did state that the odds of a royal flush occurring are once per 40,000 plays, but I never said a machine would hit once every 40,000 hands. No matter how long it has been since that machine has paid a jackpot, the random number generator used to shuffle the cards has no memory. So, the probability of a royal flush on each and every hand remains the same -- always 40,000 to 1.

Like all slots, video poker machines do run hot and cold, but there is no way anyone can know when a royal will appear next.

Q. I received some e-mail for a slot system based on cycling. Do you know anything about it? Is it worth the money?

Jan F.

A. The seller hawking this system believes slot machine combinations are programmed to go through a cycle. At the end of each cycle, combinations will repeat themselves in the exact same order. Save your money, Jan. Each combination is random and independent of past ones.

Speaking of combinations, some progressive machines can have 16,777,216 possible outcomes. I recommend bringing a sack lunch to any ninny who plans to record every one of them.

Q. Let's say I am dealt four cards to a royal in video poker. I discard one and hope for the card that will give me a royal flush. My question is: Is the card already behind the card I just discarded, or dealt from the top of a deck?

Dylan F.

A. Jurisdictional gaming regulations do vary from place to place, but most poker operates on a "serial" and not a "parallel" basis.

With a serial basis, cards are shuffled and dealt off the top of the virtual deck. An example of parallel basis is where five cards are dealt face up, and five additional cards are dealt unseen underneath the initial, face-up five.

So, Dylan, if it's serial, which it probably is, that next card is determined at the time of player interaction (draw) from the top of a virtual deck, and not at the time of the deal and card placement behind your five initial cards.

But either way you get those cards, Dylan, by gaming regulations in all legit casinos, they will be randomly drawn.

Q. What is the house advantage, if any, if I use a never-bust system against the dealer in blackjack?

Hank R.

A. Big no-no, Hank. I do not recommend ever using the never-bust strategy, which gives the casino a 5 percent advantage. By using strict basic strategy, which recommends hitting plenty of stiff hands, you cut the house edge to a half of 1 percent. Use it (basic strategy), or lose it (contents of your wallet) with the never-bust system.

A recognized authority on casino gambling, Mark Pilarski writes a nationally syndicated gambling column. E-mail him at pilarski@markpilarski.com

QUOTE OF THE WEEK: "The lowest pool hustler in the business is four times more respectable than some of those humbugs in Washington." --Minnesota Fats