Chicago Sun-Times: Odds are you won't win this jackpot, or the lottery, either

Q. A casino where I play has a cash-your-paycheck video poker machine with a big payout of $1,000,000 for a sequential royal flush. The machine has been there for about four years with no winner. What are the odds of ever hitting the big one, and can the machine be set to miss it?

Joe Q.

A. Question your way, Joe. Which do you think is easier, hitting a sequential royal flush or hitting six of 52 numbers in the Illinois State Lottery? You would be wrong if you think hitting a sequential royal flush is easier.

Let's crunch the numbers: The chances of hitting a 6/52 lottery are 20,358,520 to 1. For an ascending royal flush in any suit, they are 77,968,800 to 1.

If it is suit specific, for instance, it must be in spades, then the chances are 1 in 311,875,200.

As to the latter part of your question, there wouldn't be a need to program a machine to never deal a royal when the chances of its occurrence are infinitesimal. Either way, not only has no one hit a sequential in four years, I am willing to make an eat-your-hat wager no one ever will. Sombreros preferred, hold the tabasco; takers get back to me pronto.

This "gimmick" bonus is nothing more than a marketing scheme to induce cashing your paycheck at their joint, and then, while you're so close, registering for One-Armed Banditry 101.

Q. How often does a casino change its decks in blackjack? I sat at a table for about four hours and watched them change the deck every hour. Does this sound right to you?

Bobby G.

A. Missing from your inquiry was the number of decks on the game, making a precise answer impossible. Besides, deck replacement rules vary from casino to casino. In the casinos that I have worked, we changed single decks every hour, double decks every two hours and decks used in shoe games at the shift change (10 a.m., 6 p.m., 2 a.m.).

Cards in all casinos are swapped out more frequently on single- and double-deck games. The higher substitution rate with fewer decks compensates for the increased wear and tear from additional use and shuffling. I have even changed single decks out as often as every 30 minutes for break-in dealers whose nervous sweating in normal-limit play softened the cardboard for easy butchering.

Q. Isn't the Come bet on a craps table the exact same wager as the pass line bet, both in its rules and its house edge?

Eugene M.

A. The Come bet has the same rules and casino house edge as the Pass Line bet. The contrariety consists in that you can make this wager only after the point on the pass line has been established.

As to its mechanics, it's analogous to a Pass Line wager: once your point has been established, re-rolling the point wins, seven loses, and any other roll does not affect your Pass Line wager. Correspondingly, after you place your Come wager, the next sequence of dice rolls will establish the Come point. You lose if it is craps (2, 3, 12), win if it is a natural (7, 11) and set the point if any of the remaining numbers are rolled (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10). Like a Pass Line bet, the point needs to be repeated before a 7 is rolled to be a winner; if a 7 is rolled first, you lose.

Without taking any odds, both the Pass Line and Come wagers hold a paltry 1.4 percent casino advantage.

Mark Pilarski is a syndicated gaming writer. Send e-mails to: pilarski@markpilarski.com.