THE pricing of online casino 888.com is feeling more and more like a lottery. Its founders, two pairs (as they say on the poker tables) of whiz-kid brothers reckoned their Gibraltar-based cyberspace gambling emporium was worth Pounds 850 million when they first started thinking about floating the business earlier this year.
Now, so long as Thursday's float goes ahead, 888 could come to market in London with a tag of less than Pounds 600 million. Bookies Cantor reported strong selling of the stock on the grey market ahead of the weekend. The City spread-bet bookmakers had been quoting the opening price as high as 178-184 but has pushed that down to 164- 170.
That is right at the bottom of the wide indicative range of between 162p and 212p the company itself announced. The culprit in all these wobbles is not 888 but PartyGaming, its much larger rival. Party-Gaming is the world's biggest online poker room - 888's forte is more roulette and blackjack - and at the start of the month it spooked online gaming investors by suggesting that the peak in cyberpoker growth has passed.
Since then PartyGaming shares have crashed almost 40%, wiping more than Pounds 2 billion off its market capitalisation - but that did not prevent it from entering the FTSE 100 for the first time this month after its summer float.
PartyGaming and 888 are very likely to be at the centre of consolidation in the internet gaming sector, and AIM-listed GamingVC is just the latest takeover contender.
Its shares are on the rise after a roller-coaster ride since floating at the start of the year. Sportingbet, the stellar performer of the sector whose shares have come under pressure after a failed tie-up with Empire Online, is reckoned to be a potential buyer.
But Panmure Gordon analyst Charlie Hall thinks not. He says GamingVC would depress Sportingbet's rapid earnings growth, and says fair value for GamingVC remains at 525p, well below Friday's close.
Tomorrow sees a first-half trading update from O2, the mobile phone company whose shares were bid up to new highs last week on takeover talk. Broker Bear Stearns believes UK revenue growth will be at the bottom end of the mid-single digits the company has already forecast. Its other big market, Germany, is reckoned to be on track to report profit margins of 20%.
Glassmaker Pilkington, which releases a trading update tomorrow, has seen its shares surge recently although that has everything to do with the hostile bid by its great French rival Saint-Gobain for the UK building materials and plasterboard group BPB. Broker Morgan Stanley reckons this year's earnings should rise 4.5% but warns the shares have got ahead of themselves, and talk of an entry into the Chinese market is seductive rather than significant.
This week will also see a lot of examination of the milk industry.
The chopping and changing of the contracts to supply milk to the supermarkets will see Robert Wiseman - which lost Morrisons - and Dairy Crest - which no longer supplies Tesco - report reduced half- year profits, says Investec. "Good news will be in short supply," adds the broker.
Uniq, which is now in the chilled foods business, is due a trading update on Friday but has had a difficult first half, while Arla, which reports next week has just produced a profit warning.
Barratt Developments reports full-year results on Wednesday and despite the challenges in the housebuilding market, Charles Stanley is expecting pre-tax profits to be in line with forecasts up 5.5% at Pounds 388 million.
Among the booming oil independents and explorers, JKX is expected to report strong production in its Ukraine heartland although sentiment is being hurt by central government prevarication. Soco International's shares have been gaining recently, and investors will want to hear updates on its exploration contracts in Vietnam and the Yemen.
Asian markets bounced sharply today as US oil refineries were spared a direct hit from Hurricane Rita.
The Tokyo market, which fell on Thursday and Friday, soared, with the Nikkei 225 closing up 233.27 at 13,392.63. Sony was the biggest faller after it said it will make its first loss for a decade and is axeing 10,000 jobs. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was up 19.84 at 15,163.81. by the end of the morning session.
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