Chicago Sun-Times: Rigid approach leads to profit in blackjack

The end of a three-part shuffle through the Gaming mailbag:

Q. In your column on basic strategy in blackjack, you explained that the player should hit hard 12 when the dealer's face-up card is a 2 or 3, but stand on 12 against a 4, 5 or 6 and stand on 13, 14, 15 or 16 against a 2 through 6.

I understand that, but I was wondering if that was true in all situations. My friend told me that I shouldn't hit 12 against a 2 or 3 if I'm sitting at third base because then I might take the dealer's bust card and hurt the whole table.

Also, I was wondering if it might be right sometimes to stand on 13 against a 2 or 3. That seems awfully close to the situation with 12. Or how about if you have a 12 and the dealer has a 4? Basic strategy seems like a cookbook approach to game that has a lot of fuzzy edges.

Mac, via e-mail

A. Basic strategy is a cookbook approach, but it's one that will improve long-term results for almost all players. It takes into account all possible outcomes of a given situation, and gives you an average best play. When the dealer shows a 2, why do we hit hard 12 and not 13? Because our chances of busting with a one-card hit are higher when we start with 13 than with 12. Starting with hard 12, we bust whenever we draw a 10, Jack, Queen or King, an average of 30.8 percent of hands.

With hard 13, we also bust with 9s, meaning we bust 38.5 percent of the time. That's enough of a difference that with 13 we're better off giving the dealer the chance to bust instead of taking the risk ourselves.

That being said, you are correct that there are fuzzy edges in blackjack, but most players aren't in position to take advantage of them. To do that, you need to count cards.

Basic strategy assumes that there is always a normal proportion of cards remaining to be dealt. With an average proportion of high cards and low cards in the deck and the dealer showing a 2 or 3, it's best to hit 12 but stand on 13.

That best play can change as the composition of the remaining deck changes. Let's use a basic count system, the Hi-Lo, to demonstrate. In the Hi-Low, we count plus-1 every time we see a 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6, and count minus-1 every time we see a 10, Jack, Queen, King or Ace. An overall plus-count means that more low cards than high cards have been played, leaving a greater concentration of high cards in the deck. A minus-count means that there are more low cards than high cards remaining.

To apply that count, we divide by the number of decks remaining in the shoe to get what is called the "true count." If our count is minus-three, and three decks in a six-deck shoe have been dealt out, we divide the count by the three remaining decks to get a true count of minus-1.

When that true count reaches minus-1, it means we're short an average of one high card per remaining deck. That reduces our chances of busting just enough that we hit 13 against a dealer's 2 or 3. Not only that, at that count we hit 12 against a dealer's 4, 5 or 6.

It works the other way, too. At a true count of plus-2, meaning we have two more high cards per deck than average, we stand on 12 against a 3, and at plus-3 we stand on 12 against a 2. Those plus- counts make it more likely we'll bust 12 with a one-card hit.

If that sounds like a lot of trouble to you, you're in the majority. Counting cards is a lot of work. Fred Renzey, author of The Blackjack Bluebook, has developed some in-between steps on close- call hands. For players who want to advance beyond basic strategy in increments without diving immediately into counting cards, Renzey's book is high on my recommended list.

Q. You've mentioned that video poker players get a higher payback percentage than slot players. Is that always true, even for players like me who don't know what they're doing at poker?

Marie, via e-mail

A. I wouldn't go so far as to say "always." Play 9-6 Jacks or Better (paying 9-for-1 on full houses and 6-for-1 on flushes), and experts get 99.5 percent return. Amateurs should still beat the 95 percent they get on dollar slots in this area. But drop the full house payoff to 6-for-1 and flushes to 5-for-1, and even experts get only 95 percent out of the game. Learning to tell the good pay tables from the bad ones goes a long way toward maximizing your return at video poker.

Sunday in Real Life: notes from the boats.

E-mail John Grochowski at BetKol@aol.com