Chicago Sun-Times: Blackjack players don't break even on even money

One thing that video poker and blackjack have in common is that players have decisions to make that affect the outcome of play.

That's not true in roulette, craps or baccarat. Decisions are centered on which bet to make and how much to wager. You might choose red or black, pass or don't pass, banker or player. But once you've chosen a bet and put your money down, all you can do is wait for the outcome.

It's different in blackjack and video poker. After you've made your bet, you see your cards. Then a blackjack player must decide whether to hit, stand, split or double down, and a video poker player must decide which cards to hold and which to discard.

Part of making a good situation is adjusting to the situation and understanding that not all hands are created equal. Not only the correct play, but our goals and expectations for the hand change according to the deal.

All that came to mind recently when CLTV host Rob Goldman invited me to be a guest on his "Sports Pages" show. We took several phone calls from viewers, and one fellow wanted to know about taking insurance in blackjack. He thought it was a good play to take "even money" whenever the player has a blackjack.

He said that the way he looks at it, even-money payoffs are what he's playing for. If he doubles down or splits pairs or just plays out a regular hand, he's hoping for an even-money payoff. So why wouldn't he take the certain even-money payoff when he has a blackjack and insurance is available?

The point he was missing is that when the player has a blackjack, the situation has changed, and so must the player's mind-set. This is not a situation in which we're hoping for an even-money payoff. We're hoping for the 3-2 payoff that we get on blackjacks in all but the hands the dealer also has blackjack. And more often than not, we're going to get that 3-2 even when the dealer has an Ace face up.

Most players understand that insurance-a bet that the dealer has blackjack-is a bad bet. It would be a break-even proposition if the dealer had blackjack a third of the time when showing an Ace, but that really happens only 30.8 percent of the time.

But players who have blackjacks often seem to think it best to "protect" their hands with insurance.

Uh-uh. The percentages don't change. Even money is as bad a bet as insurance in any other situation.

Here's the way the even-money insurance situation works. Let's say I bet $10, and I have a blackjack. When it comes up, I'm already counting a 3-2 payoff for $15 in winnings, but then I see the dealer turn an Ace face up. The dealer offers insurance, and since I have a blackjack, I don't have to put money out for an extra bet. I just call "even money." The dealer just pays me $10, even money on my original bet. I pass up the chance at the $15 payoff, but I also eliminate the risk that I'll wind up with nothing if the dealer turns a 10-value card face up and matches my blackjack.

Dealers all over the world will tell you this is a great move. "The only sure thing in the house," they'll say. Problem is, it costs you money.

Of the 13 card denominations in a 52-card deck, four of them have values of 10-the 10s, Jacks, Queens and Kings. So when the dealer shows an Ace, a non-card counter should assume there are 4 chances in 13 that the dealer will finish with a blackjack. Let's say we wager $10 on each of 13 hands in which we have a blackjack and the dealer starts with an Ace face up.

If we take even money each time, we win $10 on each hand, for $130 in winnings. If we just play out the hand, on the average the dealer will get four blackjacks, meaning we win nothing on those four hands. But we'll win $15 on each of the nine hands the dealer doesn't get a blackjack, meaning that if we stay the course, we win $135. Taking even money on the average costs us $5 per $135 in potential winnings.

Blackjack is a game for the long haul, a game in which we see the same situations over and over again. If we look at each hand as a war, and settle for less than we should to assure winning an individual hand, we lose sight of the longer-term goal and cost ourselves money.

The same can happen in video poker, the other great decision- making game. Failing to recognize that the situation has changed means keeping a sure thing on one hand and costing ourselves a chance at something much bigger. We'll look at some of those situations next week.