Chicago Sun-Times: Blackjack Blitz places premium on insurance

From the time I started writing about casino games, I've been warning blackjack players never to take insurance, not even when they have blackjacks, unless they're counting cards.

It seems there's an exception. It's not one we're likely to encounter in the Chicago area, but it's something to file away for players who travel, especially those who travel to Native American casinos in states that prohibit table games.

The June issue of the Las Vegas Advisor has an item on a game called Blackjack Blitz. The Advisor folks encountered it at the Rio and the Las Vegas Hilton, but it's not common in Las Vegas.

It's more widely found in Native American casinos. While working on another project recently, I spoke with Bruce Johnson, the director of casino operations at Harrah's Cherokee casino in Cherokee, N.C. He has 27 Blackjack Blitz tables on his floor. The games are popular in Arizona, where table games aren't permitted, and at low-limit casinos in Colorado. Some Native American casinos in Iowa and Minnesota are trying the game even though table blackjack is allowed.

Blackjack Blitz is an electronic game, with cards dealt on a video screen. It differs from the video blackjack we know in that it is played on a blackjack-sized table instead of on a one-player unit. Each player has a video screen at his or her place at the table. All players receive cards from the same electronic deck, just as if they were at a regular blackjack table, receiving cards from a regular deck.

The deck is reshuffled after every hand. That limits the opportunity for card counters, but it does give players in the know a chance to make a small dent in the house edge with insurance.

The Advisor points out that the key is being able to see other players' screens. If you can see only your own cards, then you should never take insurance. But if you can see two or three players' cards, including your own, then you should take insurance if none of the cards have values of 10-that is, if none are 10s, Jacks, Queens or Kings. If you can see four players' cards, take insurance if one card or none is a 10-value; if you can see five or six players' cards, take insurance if two or fewer are 10s, and if you can see seven players' cards, take insurance if three or fewer are 10s.

The same formula applies if you're playing regular single-deck blackjack. However, single-deck blackjack is almost always dealt face down, so you can't see neighbors' cards as easily as you can in Blackjack Blitz. You'll only be able to apply this formula to regular single-deck if neighboring players hold cards in such a way that you can sneak a peek.

Let's walk through an example, keeping in mind that insurance becomes a break-even bet when one-third of the cards remaining in the deck have values of 10, and it becomes favorable to the player when more than one-third of the cards are 10 values.

The dealer's face-up card is an Ace, as it must be before insurance is offered. You can see only your own cards, and neither of them are 10s. That by itself increases the likelihood that the dealer has a 10 face down to complete a blackjack, but does it increase the likelihood enough to take insurance?

No, it doesn't. When you've seen the dealer's Ace and your own two cards, that leaves 49 unseen cards in the deck. Of those, 16 are 10 values. That's 32.65 percent, below the 33.33 percent break-even point. We skip insurance.

Now let's say we can see one neighbor's cards, and neither of those are 10s. That leaves 47 unseen cards, and the 16 10-values make up 34.04 percent, bringing us above the break-even point and making insurance a favorable wager for the player.

That method does not work in multiple-deck games. Let's say we're playing a double-deck game, and just as before, we can see one neighbor's cards, and none of the visible cards are 10 values. Instead of 47 cards remaining, there are 99, and 32 are 10 values. That's only 32.32 percent, so insurance remains a bad bet.

To get to a favorable situation in a double-deck game, we'd have to see three other players' cards in addition to our own, and have none of them be 10-value cards. You're unlikely to be able to see three other players' cards unless the game is dealt face up.

Once we get to the six-deck and eight-deck games that are common in Illinois and Indiana, we never see a favorable insurance situation based on visible cards in one hand. In a six-deck game, even if we see all seven players' cards, with none of them being 10s, 96 of 297 remaining cards, or 32.32 percent, are 10 values, meaning we should skip insurance.

So chalk up the Advisor's advice as useful for Blackjack Blitz and single-deck blackjack, and keep it in mind for trips anywhere those games are played. Just don't try to push it in multiple-deck blackjack.

The monthly Advisor, which always is chock full of useful information for Las Vegas visitors, is available for $50 a year by calling (800) 244-2224.

Sunday in Showcase: skill on the slots.

E-mail John Grochowski at BetKol@aol.com