Chicago Sun-Times: Doing the blackjack math and other taxing business

Playing catch-up, the first of a two- part shuffle through the Gaming mailbag:

Q. I have two questions.

1. I did some research and read that in a multiple-deck game, on any given hand you have a 4.8 percent chance of getting a blackjack. Do you know if that's correct?

2. Assuming the above is correct, I have come up with the following theory. I'd like your reactions to it. If I play according to basic strategy, I've read the dealer in a six-deck game has a half a percent advantage, give or take a couple tenths of a percent depending on house rules. Therefore, on average, I would lose 50.25 percent of the time and I would win 49.75 percent. Imagine I played 5,000 hands at $100 a hand. I would, on average, lose 2,513 times, and win 2,487, for a net loss of 26 hands. Multiplied by $100 per hand, that would put me down $2,600. However, I would get 240 blackjacks, and with the 3-2 payoff, that would bring me an extra $12,000. If I subtract $2,600 from $12,000, I would, on average, win $9,400 on every 5,000 games played. Please tell me the weaknesses in my theory.

B.W., via e-mail

A. If only it was that simple, that we could play basic strategy blackjack and expect big profits.

Alas, although we do receive a blackjack about 4.8 percent of the time--a little more often with fewer decks, less with more decks-- there is a fundamental flaw in your theory. The 3-2 payoffs on blackjacks already are accounted for in calculating the house edge. We don't win 49.75 percent of all hands. We win less often than that, but the 3-2 blackjack payoffs and gains through double downs and pair splitting bring us enough gains so that in the end we get back 99.5 percent or so of the total amount wagered.

Q. So far this year, I was fortunate enough to win over $1,200 a couple of times at the Indiana boats and received the full amount in cash. However, on Aug. 5 at Trump, I won $1,250 and they deducted $42.50 for state income tax.

I told them I live in Illinois, (as they knew from my drivers license) and indicated I didn't appreciate donating to the Indiana state tax $42.50, since it was never deducted in the past. They said that's too bad, if I want the $1,207.50, I have to accept the tax.

Why all of a sudden do I have pay tax up front? Is it just Trump, or all of Indiana?

K. & J., via e-mail

A. Indiana changed its law earlier this year, requiring state tax to be collected before casinos can pay jackpots of $1,200 or more. Trump had no choice in the matter, nor would any Indiana casino.

Q. I might have missed it, but have you written anything on the Isle of Capri Casino in Bettendorf, Iowa? They are very friendly there. The casino accepts coupons seven days either way (of printed date)--something you won't see at Harrah's. Buffets are extremely easy to comp. They're cheap anyway, but delicious! Video poker is pretty good, too. Oh, and they board 24-7 with NO DOWN TIME.

There's a pool/whirlpool and outdoor deck area and fitness room, too. Rooms come with a fridge and coffeemaker. The boat cruises Monday through Friday, 7 a.m. to 9 a.m. (and is dockside the rest of the time), and it's a beautiful trip down the Mississippi River. I have never waited for a machine.

Sorry I sound like a commercial, but I really love it there. Oh yes, I live in Joliet. A two-hour drive, door to door.

Donna, via e-mail

A. I've not been to Isle of Capri since the changeover from Lady Luck, but it's a trip I want to make when I get the time. Another on my want-to list is Casino Queen in East St. Louis. I've received many good reports on both properties, and hope to check them out myself before too long.

Q. I was wondering if there are any ONLINE casinos that you feel offer safe, fair play. Do you consider using online play at all?

M.P., via e-mail

A. I have no list of online casinos. I personally do not play online. My fears of being cheated by non-random games are not as great as they once were, thanks to players I know and trust having kept careful records showing normal results. However, my concerns about having trouble collecting have increased as I've heard of too many small operations folding without paying players. As a matter of personal taste, I prefer the social interaction that comes with going to a casino to play and am wary of getting caught up in playing longer than I intend when alone on a computer.