|
|
| Survey of Current Business: Business situation: preliminary estimates for the second quarter of 2004 |
THE growth of gross domestic product (GDP) slowed in the second quarter of 2004, according to the "preliminary" estimates of the national income and product accounts (NIPAs); prices and real disposable personal income increased about as much as in the first quarter of the year (chart 1 and table 1). (1) Much the same picture of GDP growth and prices was shown in the "advance" estimates released a month ago; however, income growth was revised down.
[GRAPHIC OMITTED]
* Real GDP increased 2.8 percent in the second quarter after increasing 4.5 percent in the first. The advance estimate for the second quarter had shown a 3.0-percent increase. Consumer spending, inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment were revised up in the preliminary estimates, and net exports was revised down.
* Prices of goods and services purchased by U.S. residents increased 3.5 percent (the same as in the advance estimate) after increasing 3.4 percent.
* Real disposable personal income increased 2.5 percent after increasing 2.4 percent. The advance estimate for the second quarter had shown a 2.9-percent increase.
The deceleration in GDP growth in the second quarter mainly reflected a slowdown in consumer spending, but a slowdown in inventory investment and a step-up in imports also contributed. (2)
* Consumer spending increased 1.6 percent and contributed 1.11 percentage points to GDP growth, 1.79 percentage points less than it contributed in the first quarter. Purchases of nondurable goods and of services slowed, and purchases of durable goods were flat after increasing.
* Inventory investment contributed 0.66 percentage point to GDP growth, 0.51 percentage point less than it contributed in the first quarter. Inventory stocks increased more in the second quarter ($57.7 billion) than in the first ($40.0 billion), but this step-up was much smaller than the step-up from the fourth quarter of 2003 to the first quarter of 2004 (from $8.6 billion to $40.0 billion).
* Imports increased 14.1 percent and subtracted 1.96 percentage points from second-quarter GDP growth, 0.50 percentage point more than in the first quarter. (Exports slowed somewhat and contributed 0.10 percentage point less to GDP growth than in the first quarter.)
The effects on GDP of consumer spending, inventory investment, and imports were partly offset by step-ups in fixed investment.
* Nonresidential fixed investment increased 12.1 percent and contributed 1.18 percentage points to second-quarter GDP growth, 0.76 percentage point more than it contributed in the first quarter. Investment in equipment and software stepped up, and investment in structures increased after decreasing.
* Residential investment increased 14.7 percent and contributed 0.77 percentage point, 0.50 percentage point more than in the first quarter.
The preliminary estimates for the second quarter also show the following:
* Real final sales of domestic product (GDP less the change in private inventories) increased 2.1 percent after increasing 3.3 percent (table 2).
* The production of goods and of services slowed, while the production of structures stepped up.
* Motor vehicle output turned down. Excluding motor vehicles, real GDP increased 3.7 percent after increasing 4.3 percent.
* Final sales of computers decreased a little after a very slight increase.
* Gross domestic purchases increased 4.0 percent after increasing 5.0 percent. The advance estimate for the second quarter had shown a 3.0-percent increase.
* The gross saving rate--saving from all sources as a percentage of gross national income--held steady, at 13.7 percent. The net saving rate also held steady, at 1.9 percent. (Net saving, which excludes the consumption of fixed capital, is a measure of the saving that is available for augmenting the stock of fixed assets.)
Personal Consumption Expenditures
In the second quarter of 2004, real personal consumption expenditures slowed to a 1.6-percent increase from a 4.1-percent increase in the first quarter (chart 2 and table 3). (Over the past 10 years, consumption spending has increased at an average annual rate of 3.7 percent.) Purchases of nondurable goods made the largest contribution to the slowdown, but purchases of services and of durable goods also contributed.
[GRAPHIC OMITTED]
In nondurable goods, purchases of clothing and shoes turned down, and purchases of food slowed. Purchases of gasoline, fuel oil, and other energy goods decreased more than in the first quarter.
In services, spending on electricity and gas turned down, and spending on recreation (which includes casino gambling) slowed. Spending on "other" services also slowed, as brokerage charges and investment counseling turned down. In contrast, spending on medical care increased more than in the first quarter.
In durable goods, purchases of furniture and household equipment increased less than in the first quarter, as slowdowns were posted by kitchen appliances, by tableware, and by video and audio goods. "Other" durable goods (which includes jewelry and watches) turned down. Purchases of motor vehicles and parts decreased almost as much as in the first quarter; purchases of new autos slowed, but net purchases of used autos and purchases of new and used light trucks decreased less than in the first quarter.
Factors frequently considered in the analysis of consumer spending were not particularly favorable in the second quarter (chart 3). Real disposable personal income registered a third consecutive below-average increase. (3) The Index of Consumer Sentiment (prepared by the University of Michigan's Survey Research Center) decreased for the first time since the beginning of 2003. The unemployment rate held steady at 5.6 percent.
[GRAPHIC OMITTED]
Private Fixed Investment
Real private fixed investment increased 13.0 percent in the second quarter--considerably more than in the first quarter, when it posted a below-average increase (chart 4 and table 4). (4)
[GRAPHIC OMITTED]
Nonresidential. Real private nonresidential fixed investment increased 12.1 percent in the second quarter after increasing 4.2 percent in the first. Investment in equipment and software increased more than in the first quarter, and investment in structures turned up.
The step-up in equipment and software mainly reflected an upturn in transportation equipment, but a step-up in "other" equipment also contributed. In contrast, investment in information processing equipment and software and in industrial equipment increased less than in the first quarter. In transportation equipment, aircraft rebounded from a first-quarter decline; trucks also turned up. In "other" equipment, an upturn in furniture and fixtures and a step-up in mining and oilfield machinery were partly offset by a slowdown in construction machinery. Information processing equipment and software was a mixed bag; investment in computers and peripheral equipment stepped up briskly, but investment in software and in "other" information processing equipment slowed. In industrial equipment, metalworking machinery turned down, and engines and turbines decreased more than in the first quarter; in contrast, general industrial machinery turned up.
In structures, the upturn was mainly accounted for by a turnaround in commercial and health care facilities; "other" structures and mining exploration, shafts, and wells also contributed. In contrast, the power and communication component decreased more than twice as much as in the first quarter.
Conditions that are frequently considered in the analysis of investment spending have generally been favorable in recent quarters (chart 5). The capacity utilization rate for manufacturing, mining, and utilities increased modestly for the fourth quarter in a row; at 77.1 percent, it is 3.0 percentage points above its low in the second quarter of 2003, and it is at its highest level since the second quarter of 2001. Domestic corporations' profits from current production increased for the 11th consecutive quarter. Long-term interest rates remained low despite an increase in the second quarter. Real final sales of domestic product increased at close to its average rate over the past four quarters despite slower-than-usual growth in the second quarter.
[GRAPHIC OMITTED]
Residential. Real private residential investment increased 14.7 percent in the second quarter after increasing 5.0 percent in the first. The step-up mainly reflected a step-up in "other" structures, which includes brokers' commissions on the sale of residences. Single-family construction increased less than in the first quarter, and multifamily construction increased more.
Inventory investment
Continued from page 1.
Real inventory investment increased to $57.7 billion in the second quarter from $40.0 billion in the first (table 5 and chart 6). The $17.7 billion step-up was smaller than the first-quarter step-up of $31.4 billion (from $8.6 billion to $40.0 billion).
[GRAPHIC OMITTED]
Wholesale trade inventories increased about twice as much as in the first quarter. Most of the step-up was accounted for by merchant wholesalers; the biggest contributions were made by upturns in inventories of machinery, equipment, and supplies wholesalers and in inventories of miscellaneous durable and nondurable goods wholesalers. These upturns were partly offset by a downturn in the stocks of farm-product raw material wholesalers.
Manufacturing inventories increased somewhat more than in the first quarter, as an upturn in inventories of durable goods was partly offset by a slowdown in inventories of nondurable goods. In durable goods, the upturn mainly reflected an upturn in inventories of computer and electronic equipment manufacturing that more than offset a slowdown in inventories of motor vehicle manufacturing. In nondurable goods, the slowdown mainly reflected slowdowns in inventories of chemical manufacturing and of petroleum refining and a downturn in inventories of food manufacturing.
Retail trade inventories increased slightly less than in the first quarter. The slowdown reflected a slowdown in inventories of motor vehicle dealers that was largely offset by step-ups in inventories of "other" retail stores and of food and beverage stores.
Farm inventories increased less than in the first quarter. Crop inventories mainly accounted for the slowdown.
The ratio of real private nonfarm inventories to final sales of goods and structures increased to 3.55 from 3.54. A ratio that includes all final sales of domestic businesses increased to 2.23 from 2.22. (5) Both ratios have been trending down for decades.
Exports and Imports
The growth of real exports of goods and services slowed somewhat in the second quarter, while the growth of real imports of goods and services stepped up (table 6 and chart 7).
[GRAPHIC OMITTED]
Exports of goods increased 5.0 percent after increasing 9.1 percent. The deceleration was mainly accounted for by slowdowns in exports of nonautomotive capital goods and of industrial supplies and materials.
Exports of services increased 8.7 percent after increasing 3.4 percent. Upturns in travel and in passenger fares were mainly responsible for the step-up.
Imports of goods increased 13.6 percent after increasing 12.7 percent (chart 8). Step-ups in imports of nonautomotive capital goods and in nonautomotive consumer goods were partly offset by a sharp downturn in imports of petroleum.
[GRAPHIC OMITTED]
Imports of services stepped up sharply, increasing 16.4 percent in the second quarter after increasing 1.2 percent in the first. Upturns in travel, in direct defense expenditures, and in passenger fares were partly offset by a slowdown in "other transportation."
Government Spending
Government spending increased 2.4 percent in the second quarter, about the same as in the first quarter (table 7 and chart 9). Spending by the Federal Government increased less than in the first quarter, while spending by state and local governments increased after no change.
[GRAPHIC OMITTED]
A slowdown in national defense spending reflected a sharp downturn in gross investment and a slowdown in consumption expenditures. The downturn in gross investment was mainly accounted for by downturns in aircraft, ships, and electronics and software and by a slowdown in "other" equipment. In addition, investment in structures decreased after a small increase.
A step-up in Federal nondefense spending was more than accounted for by an acceleration in gross investment that mainly reflected a step-up in equipment and software.
At the state and local level, gross investment increased in the second quarter after a small decrease in the first; the upturn was mainly accounted for by structures. Consumption expenditures were unchanged in the second quarter after a small increase in the first.
Prices
Inflation as measured by the price index for gross domestic purchases was 3.5 percent in the second quarter; in the first quarter, inflation was 3.4 percent (table 8). Excluding food and energy prices, the price index increased 2.5 percent in the second quarter, the same as in the first quarter (chart 10). In the first quarter, a Federal pay raise for military and civilian personnel had added about 0.3 percentage point to the increase in prices. (6)
[GRAPHIC OMITTED]
Prices of goods and services purchased by consumers increased 3.2 percent after increasing 3.3 percent; food prices stepped up, and energy prices increased about as sharply as in the first quarter. Excluding food and energy, prices paid by consumers increased 1.7 percent after increasing 2.1 percent.
Prices of private nonresidential fixed investment increased 1.8 percent after increasing 0.3 percent. Prices of structures increased more than in the first quarter, and prices of equipment and software increased slightly after decreasing.
Prices paid by government increased 4.2 percent after increasing 5.1 percent. The slowdown was more than accounted for by prices paid by the Federal Government; in the first quarter, these prices had reflected the pay raise for civilian and military personnel. Prices paid by state and local governments increased 5.0 percent in the second quarter, 0.8 percentage point more than in the first.
The GDP price index, which measures the prices paid for goods and services produced in the United States, increased 3.2 percent, 0.3 percentage point less than the price index for gross domestic purchases. The smaller increase in the GDP price index reflected a smaller increase in export prices (which are included in the GDP price index) than in import prices (which are included in the price index for gross domestic purchases).
Revisions
The preliminary estimate of a 2.8-percent increase in real GDP in the second quarter is 0.2 percentage point less than the advance estimate released last month (table 9). In the past 20 years, the average revision, without regard to sign, from the advance estimate to the preliminary estimate has been 0.5 percentage point.
The downward revision to second-quarter real GDP reflected a downward revision to net exports that was largely offset by upward revisions to consumer spending, to inventory investment, and to nonresidential fixed investment.
In the preliminary estimate, net exports subtracted 1.29 percentage points more from the GDP growth rate than in the advance estimate. Exports increased less than previously reported, and imports (which are subtracted in the calculation of GDP) increased more. The revisions to both exports and imports mainly reflected the incorporation of newly available Census Bureau data on trade in goods for June.
Consumer spending contributed 0.38 percentage point more to GDP growth in the preliminary estimate than in the advance estimate. The upward revision to consumer spending mainly reflected the incorporation of revised Census Bureau data on retail sales for June and corrected data on truck registrations.
Inventory investment also contributed 0.38 percentage point more to the GDP growth in the preliminary estimate than in the advance. The upward revision to inventory investment mainly reflected the incorporation of newly available and revised Census Bureau data on inventories for June and revised data for May.
Nonresidential investment in equipment and software contributed 0.26 percentage point more to GDP growth in the preliminary estimate than in the advance. The upward revision to equipment and software was mainly to transportation equipment and reflected the incorporation of newly available Census Bureau data on exports and imports for June and revised Census Bureau data on manufacturers' shipments of equipment for May and June.
In addition to these revised estimates for the second quarter, estimates of wages and salaries and of related series have been revised for the first quarter. These revisions reflect the incorporation of newly available Bureau of Labor Statistics tabulations of wages and salaries of employees covered by state unemployment insurance. Wages and salaries are now estimated to have increased $51.8 billion in the first quarter, a downward revision of $21.8 billion, and real disposable personal income (DPI) is now estimated to have increased 2.4 percent in the first quarter, a downward revision of 0.8 percentage point. Real DPI in the second quarter is now estimated to have increased 2.5 percent, a downward revision of 0.4 percentage point.
Corporate Profits
Continued from page 2.
Profits from current production increased $1.6 billion (0.1 percent at a quarterly rate) in the second quarter after increasing $36.5 billion (3.2 percent) in the first quarter (table 10). (7) Profits of domestic industries increased less--and profits from the rest of the world decreased more--in the second quarter than in the first. (8)
Taxes on corporate income increased $12.9 billion (5.0 percent) in the second quarter, and after-tax profits from current production decreased $11.3 billion (1.2 percent).
The slowdown in profits of domestic industries was more than accounted for by financial corporations. Profits of financial corporations decreased $3.6 billion (1.0 percent) after increasing $19.8 billion (5.9 percent). In contrast, profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $28.7 billion (4.7 percent), about the same as in the first quarter. The second-quarter increase in profits of nonfinancial corporations, like the first-quarter increase, mainly reflected a rise in profits per unit, as unit prices increased more than unit labor costs.
Profits from the rest of the world decreased $23.5 billion (11.5 percent) in the second quarter after decreasing $10.5 billion in the first. The second-quarter decrease mainly reflected an increase in payments by domestic affiliates to foreign parents.
Net cash flow from current production, a profits-related measure of internally generated funds available for investment, decreased $11.4 billion. (9) The ratio of cash flow to nonresidential fixed investment, an indicator of the extent to which the current level of investment could be financed by internally generated funds, was above 100 for the seventh consecutive quarter, even though it decreased to 105.8 in the second quarter from 110.4 in the first.
Government Sector
"Net government saving," the difference between current receipts and expenditures, was -$366.5 billion in the second quarter of 2004, increasing $12.7 billion from -$379.2 billion in the first quarter of 2004 (table 11). (10) Both net Federal Government saving and net state and local government saving turned up in the second quarter.
Federal
Net Federal Government saving was -$383.0 billion in the second quarter of 2004, increasing $8.0 billion from -$391.0 billion in the first quarter. Current receipts accelerated sharply, and current expenditures decelerated.
Current receipts. Federal Government current receipts increased $30.1 billion after increasing $14.7 billion. The acceleration was more than accounted for by an upturn in current tax receipts and by a smaller decrease in income receipts on assets. The acceleration was partly offset by a deceleration in contributions for government social insurance.
Current tax receipts increased $22.0 billion after decreasing $1.0 billion. The upturn was more than accounted for by an upturn in personal current taxes and by an acceleration in taxes on corporate income, but a slight turnaround in taxes on production and imports also contributed. Personal current taxes increased $11.4 billion after decreasing $4.2 billion, reflecting the pattern of income taxes. Nonwithheld income taxes increased $0.2 billion after decreasing $8.7 billion; withheld income taxes increased $11.2 billion after increasing $4.4 billion. Taxes on corporate income increased $10.5 billion after increasing $3.0 billion.
Income receipts on assets decreased $0.4 billion after decreasing $2.6 billion. This smaller decrease was mostly attributable to interest receipts, which were unchanged after decreasing $1.9 billion.
Contributions for government social insurance increased $8.3 billion after increasing $18.4 billion. The deceleration was mostly accounted for by a downturn in contributions for unemployment programs, which decreased $0.1 billion after increasing $6.7 billion. In the first quarter, contributions were boosted $6.8 billion by increases in contribution rates and in state wage bases. The deceleration was also attributable to a deceleration in contributions for supplemental medical insurance, which increased $0.2 billion after increasing $3.3 billion; the first-quarter contributions were boosted $3.2 billion by an increase in the monthly premium paid by participants of the program.
Current expenditures. Federal Government current expenditures increased $22.1 billion after increasing $26.5 billion. The deceleration was more than accounted for by decelerations in current transfer payments and in consumption expenditures. The deceleration in current expenditures was partially offset by an upturn in interest payments and by a smaller decrease in subsidies.
Current transfer payments increased $1.7 billion after increasing $15.3 billion. The deceleration was attributable to a deceleration in government social benefit payments to persons and to a downturn in "other current transfer payments."
Government social benefit payments to persons increased $6.6 billion after increasing $13.7 billion. The deceleration was mostly attributable to the 2.1-percent cost-of-living adjustment that boosted benefits $11.4 billion in the first quarter for social security (old-age, survivors, disability, and health insurance), veterans pensions, and supplemental security income. The deceleration was also attributable to payments for the earned income tax credit, which boosted social benefits $2.7 billion in the first quarter. Tempering the deceleration, benefit payments for unemployment programs decreased $8.0 billion after decreasing $10.1 billion, and benefits for Medicare (hospital and supplemental medical insurance) accelerated.
"Other current transfer payments" decreased $5.0 billion after increasing $1.7 billion. The downturn was more than accounted for by a downturn in "other current transfer payments to the rest of the world," which decreased $10.9 billion after increasing $12.9 billion; the first-quarter increase was boosted by $11.2 billion in economic support payments to Israel and Egypt. The downturn in "other current transfer payments to the rest of the world" was partly offset by an upturn in grants-in-aid to state and local governments.
Grants-in-aid to state and local governments increased $5.9 billion after decreasing $11.2 billion. The upturn was more than accounted for by grants-in-aid for executive, legislative, and judicial activities, which were unchanged after decreasing $19.6 billion in the first quarter after the Temporary State Fiscal Relief Fund expired in the fourth quarter. Contributing to the upturn, grants-in-aid for housing and community services turned up, increasing $1.1 billion after decreasing $2.2 billion. The upturn was tempered by downturns in grants-in-aid for education, which decreased $1.0 billion after increasing $3.3 billion, and in grants-in-aid for welfare and social services, which decreased $1.9 billion after increasing $0.5 billion.
Consumption expenditures increased $8.8 billion after increasing $19.8 billion. Both defense and nondefense consumption expenditures decelerated.
Defense consumption expenditures increased $8.3 billion after increasing $15.0 billion. The deceleration was more than accounted for by a downturn in compensation of general government employees, which decreased $0.8 billion after increasing $7.4 billion; in the first quarter, compensation was boosted $5.5 billion by the January 2004 pay raise. The deceleration was also attributable to spending for nondurable goods, which decreased $0.1 billion after increasing $1.5 billion. In contrast, spending for services and for durable goods accelerated.
Nondefense consumption expenditures increased $0.5 billion after increasing $4.8 billion. The deceleration was mostly accounted for by a downturn in compensation of general government employees, which decreased $0.2 billion after increasing $3.3 billion; in the first quarter, compensation was boosted $4.1 billion by the January 2004 pay raise. The deceleration was also attributable to a deceleration in government spending for services, which increased $0.4 billion after increasing $2.0 billion.
Interest payments increased $9.6 billion after decreasing $3.6 billion, mainly reflecting an upturn in interest paid to persons and business, which increased $3.8 billion after decreasing $6.9 billion. The upturn was also attributable to an acceleration in interest payments to the rest of the world, which increased $5.8 billion after increasing $3.3 billion.
Subsidies decreased $1.0 billion after decreasing $3.5 billion. The smaller decrease was more than accounted for by agricultural subsidies, which decreased $1.1 billion after decreasing $3.7 billion.
State and local
Net state and local government saving was $16.5 billion in the second quarter of 2004, increasing $4.7 billion from $11.8 billion in the first quarter. Current receipts accelerated rapidly, and current expenditures decelerated.
Continued from page 3.
Current receipts. State and local government current receipts increased $31.3 billion after increasing $4.8 billion. The rapid acceleration was mostly accounted for by an upturn in current transfer receipts and by an acceleration in current tax receipts.
Current transfer receipts increased $8.1 billion after decreasing $8.2 billion. The upturn was more than accounted for by an upturn in Federal grants-in-aid, which increased $5.9 billion after decreasing $11.2 billion.
Current tax receipts increased $22.6 billion after increasing $12.3 billion. The acceleration was mostly accounted for by an acceleration in personal current taxes, which increased $11.3 billion after increasing $1.4 billion, mainly as a result of an acceleration in personal income taxes.
Current expenditures. State and local government current expenditures increased $26.6 billion after increasing $28.3 billion. The deceleration was more than accounted for by decelerations in consumption expenditures and in interest payments. These decelerations were partly offset by a slight acceleration in government social benefit payments to persons.
Consumption expenditures increased $11.8 billion after increasing $13.5 billion. The deceleration was more than accounted for by decelerations in government spending for nondurable goods and for compensation. These decelerations were partly offset by accelerations in the consumption of general government fixed capital and in government spending for services.
Government social benefit payments increased $14.6 billion after increasing $14.0 billion. The acceleration was mostly accounted for by an acceleration in Medicaid payments.
Net lending or net borrowing
"Net lending or net borrowing (-)" is an alternative measure of the government fiscal position. Net lending is the financing requirement of the government sector, and it is derived as net government saving plus the consumption of fixed capital and "capital transfers received (net)" less gross investment and net purchases of nonproduced assets. (11)
Net borrowing decreased $1.8 billion in the second quarter after increasing $38.4 billion in the first quarter. Federal Government net borrowing decreased $8.9 billion after increasing $14.8 billion. State and local government net borrowing decelerated, increasing $7.1 billion after increasing $23.6 billion.
Government gross investment accelerated, increasing $14.6 billion after increasing $6.2 billion. (12) Federal Government gross investment increased $2.3 billion after increasing $6.0 billion. State and local government gross investment increased $12.3 billion after increasing $0.2 billion; the acceleration was mostly accounted for by an acceleration in gross investment for structures, which increased $11.7 billion after increasing $0.7 billion.
Continued from page 4.
Table 1. Real Gross Domestic Product and Components
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Contribution
to percent
Change from preceding change in
period (percent) real GDP
(percentage
points)
2003 2004 2003
III IV I II III
Gross domestic
product (GDP) 7.4 4.2 4.5 2.8 7.4
Personal consumption
expenditures 5.0 3.6 4.1 1.6 3.58
Durable goods 16.5 3.9 2.2 0.0 1.38
Nondurable goods 6.9 5.1 6.7 0.4 1.38
Services 1.9 2.8 3.3 2.5 0.83
Gross private domestic
investment 22.4 13.9 12.3 17.3 3.16
Fixed investment 18.0 10.5 4.5 13.0 2.59
Nonresidential 15.7 11.0 4.2 12.1 1.50
Structures -1.3 7.9 -7.6 7.1 -0.03
Equipment and
software 21.7 12.0 8.0 13.6 1.53
Residential 22.4 9.6 5.0 14.7 1.09
Change in private
inventories ... ... ... ... 0.57
Net exports of goods and
services ... ... ... ... 0.64
Exports 11.3 17.5 7.3 6.1 1.02
Goods 10.1 16.1 9.1 5.0 0.64
Services 14.1 20.6 3.4 8.7 0.39
Imports 2.8 17.1 10.6 14.1 -0.39
Goods 0.0 18.4 12.7 13.6 0.00
Services 17.9 11.1 1.2 16.4 -0.39
Government consumption
expenditures and
gross investment 0.1 1.6 2.5 2.4 0.03
Federal -3.3 4.8 7.1 2.7 -0.23
National defense -7.7 11.6 10.6 1.9 -0.36
Nondefense 5.8 -7.5 0.2 4.5 0.13
State and local 2.2 -0.1 0.0 2.2 0.26
Contribution
to percent Share of
change in current-
real GDP dollar
(percentage GDP
points) (percent)
2004 2004
IV I II II
Gross domestic
product (GDP) 4.2 4.5 2.8 100.0
Personal consumption
expenditures 2.50 2.90 1.11 70.0
Durable goods 0.33 0.19 0.00 8.4
Nondurable goods 1.01 1.33 0.09 20.2
Services 1.15 1.39 1.02 41.4
Gross private domestic
investment 2.04 1.86 2.60 16.4
Fixed investment 1.57 0.69 1.95 16.0
Nonresidential 1.07 0.42 1.18 10.3
Structures 0.18 -0.19 0.16 2.4
Equipment and
software 0.89 0.61 1.01 7.9
Residential 0.50 0.27 0.77 5.7
Change in private
inventories 0.47 1.17 0.66 0.5
Net exports of goods and
services -0.66 -0.76 -1.37 -5.1
Exports 1.55 0.70 0.60 10.0
Goods 1.00 0.60 0.34 7.0
Services 0.56 0.10 0.25 3.0
Imports -2.22 -1.46 -1.96 15.2
Goods -1.96 -1.43 -1.58 12.6
Services -0.26 -0.03 -0.38 2.5
Government consumption
expenditures and
gross investment 0.31 0.48 0.45 18.7
Federal 0.33 0.48 0.19 6.9
National defense 0.50 0.47 0.09 4.6
Nondefense -0.18 0.00 0.10 2.3
State and local -0.02 0.00 0.26 11.8
NOTE. Percent changes are from NIPA table 1.1.1, and contributions
to percent change are from NIPA table 1.1.2. Shares are from NIPA
table 1.1.10.
Table 2. Real Gross Domestic Product by Type of Product
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Change from preceding
period (percent)
2003 2004
III IV I II
Gross domestic product
(GDP) 7.4 4.2 4.5 2.8
Final sales of
domestic product 6.8 3.7 3.3 2.1
Change in private
inventories ... ... ... ...
Goods 17.7 5.8 8.2 1.8
Services 1.1 3.1 3.0 1.8
Structures 13.9 5.4 0.7 12.3
Addenda:
Motor vehicle output 26.3 2.9 8.8 -19.6
GDP excluding motor
vehicle output 6.8 4.2 4.3 3.7
Final sales of computers 93.7 29.0 0.1 -1.1
GDP excluding final sales
of computers 6.8 4.0 4.5 2.8
Share of
Contribution to percent current-
charge in real GDP dollar
(percentage points) GDP
(percent)
2003 2004 2004
III IV I II II
Gross domestic product
(GDP) 7.4 4.2 4.5 2.8 100.0
Final sales of
domestic product 6.84 3.71 3.32 2.14 99.5
Change in private
inventories 0.57 0.47 1.17 0.66 0.5
Goods 5.45 1.90 2.65 0.61 32.6
Services 0.67 1.77 1.76 1.03 57.3
Structures 1.29 0.52 0.07 1.15 10.0
Addenda:
Motor vehicle output 0.84 0.11 0.30 -0.76 3.4
GDP excluding motor
vehicle output 6.57 4.08 4.18 3.55 96.6
Final sales of computers 0.64 0.26 0.00 -0.01 1.0
GDP excluding final sales
of computers 6.77 3.93 4.48 2.80 99.0
NOTE. Percent changes are from NIPA table 1.2.1, and contributions to
percent change are from NIPA table 1.2.2. Shares are calculated from
NIPA table 1.2.5.
Table 3. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Contribution
to percent
Change from preceding change in
period (percent) real PCE
(percentage
points)
2003 2004 2003
III IV I II III
Personal consumption
expenditures (PCE) 5.0 3.6 4.1 1.6 5.0
Durable goods 16.5 3.9 2.2 0.0 1.94
Motor vehicles and
parts 13.3 -1.8 -5.8 -5.3 0.74
Furniture and household
equipment 22.3 9.8 11.1 7.2 0.88
Other (1) 14.1 7.4 6.2 -0.4 0.32
Nondurable goods 6.9 5.1 6.7 0.4 1.93
Food 5.9 2.6 8.1 2.6 0.80
Clothing and shoes 9.9 3.9 16.3 -4.9 0.39
Gasoline, fuel oil, and
other energy goods 5.3 19.1 -2.3 -13.2 0.14
Other (2) 7.6 5.8 3.1 5.0 0.61
Services 1.9 2.8 3.3 2.5 1.16
Housing 1.4 0.8 2.1 2.0 0.22
Household operation 2.0 7.5 3.2 -4.4 0.11
Electricity and gas 0.4 17.5 3.5 -16.2 0.01
Other household
operation 3.0 1.6 3.1 4.0 0.10
Transportation -0.8 -0.5 2.0 2.8 -0.03
Medical care 3.3 3.1 3.2 4.9 0.56
Recreation 2.3 4.0 5.9 0.3 0.10
Other (3) 1.5 3.2 4.4 3.3 0.21
Contribution
to percent Share of
change in current-
real PCE dollar
(percentage PCE
points) (percent)
2004 2004
IV I II II
Personal consumption
expenditures (PCE) 3.6 4.1 1.6 100.0
Durable goods 0.48 0.27 0.00 12.0
Motor vehicles and
parts -0.10 -0.33 -0.29 5.3
Furniture and household
equipment 0.41 0.45 0.30 4.3
Other (1) 0.17 0.15 -0.01 2.4
Nondurable goods 1.45 1.90 0.13 28.9
Food 0.36 1.10 0.36 14.0
Clothing and shoes 0.16 0.62 -0.20 4.0
Gasoline, fuel oil, and
other energy goods 0.47 -0.06 -0.41 3.0
Other (2) 0.46 0.25 0.39 8.0
Services 1.64 1.98 1.45 59.1
Housing 0.13 0.33 0.30 15.2
Household operation 0.41 0.18 -0.24 5.4
Electricity and gas 0.35 0.08 -0.38 2.1
Other household
operation 0.05 0.10 0.13 3.4
Transportation -0.02 0.07 0.10 3.7
Medical care 0.52 0.55 0.82 16.9
Recreation 0.16 0.24 0.01 4.1
Other (3) 0.44 0.61 0.46 13.9
(1.) Includes jewelry and watches, ophthalmic products and
orthopedic equipment, books and maps, bicycles and
motorcycles, guns and sporting equipment, photographic
equipment, boats, and pleasure aircraft.
(2.) Includes tobacco, toilet articles, drug preparations and
sundries, stationery and writing supplies, toys, film, flowers,
cleaning preparations and paper products, semidurable house
furnishings, and magazines and newspapers.
(3.) Includes personal care, personal business, education and
research, religious and welfare activities, and net foreign travel.
NOTE. Percent changes are from NIPA table 2.3.1, and contributions
to percent change are from NIPA table 2.3.2. Shares are calculated
from NIPA table 2.3.5.
Table 4. Real Private Fixed Investment
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Change from preceding
period (percent)
2003 2004
III IV I II
Private fixed
investment (PFI) 18.0 10.5 4.5 13.0
Nonresidential 15.7 11.0 4.2 12.1
Structures -1.3 7.9 -7.6 7.1
Commercial and health
care -0.3 -6.3 -9.1 18.5
Manufacturing -5.7 -4.1 -16.8 -15.5
Power and
communication -16.0 71.4 -13.4 -32.2
Mining exploration,
shafts, and wells 31.9 13.7 6.7 20.0
Other structures (1) -9.0 2.3 -7.0 17.9
Equipment and software 21.7 12.0 8.0 13.6
Information processing
equipment and
software 29.2 16.3 16.4 13.6
Computers and
peripheral
equipment 54.1 31.5 6.5 26.9
Software (2) 20.0 9.3 16.8 8.2
Other (3) 25.6 15.0 22.1 11.8
Industrial equipment 3.2 -4.5 6.6 2.6
Transportation
equipment 12.9 11.9 -15.0 23.9
Other equipment (4) 27.6 16.5 8.3 15.8
Residential 22.4 9.6 5.0 14.7
Structures 22.5 9.5 4.9 14.9
Permanent site 22.1 21.6 6.7 6.1
Single family 23.4 24.8 7.1 6.2
Multifamily 11.5 -4.4 2.8 5.4
Other structures (5) 23.1 -7.2 2.1 30.9
Equipment 18.8 12.7 11.9 3.2
Share of
Contribution to percent current-
change in real PFI dollar
(percentage points) PFI
(percent)
2003 2004 2004
III IV I II II
Private fixed
Investment (PFI) 18.0 10.5 4.5 13.0 100.0
Nonresidential 10.42 7.20 2.73 7.87 64.5
Structures -0.20 1.22 -1.19 1.09 14.8
Commercial and health
care -0.02 -0.42 -0.60 1.09 6.3
Manufacturing -0.05 -0.03 -0.15 -0.13 0.7
Power and
communication -0.40 1.30 -0.35 -0.87 2.1
Mining exploration,
shafts, and wells 0.63 0.29 0.14 0.42 2.2
Other structures (1) -0.35 0.08 -0.25 0.58 3.4
Equipment and software 10.61 5.97 3.92 6.79 49.7
Information processing
equipment and
software 7.19 4.11 4.01 3.54 25.9
Computers and
peripheral
equipment 2.69 1.70 0.37 1.48 5.9
Software (2) 1.97 0.91 1.54 0.82 9.7
Other (3) 2.52 1.50 2.10 1.24 10.4
Industrial equipment 0.29 -0.36 0.52 0.22 7.8
Transportation
equipment 0.99 0.92 -1.26 1.74 7.7
Other equipment (4) 2.14 1.31 0.66 1.29 8.3
Residential 7.55 3.34 1.75 5.16 35.5
Structures 7.46 3.28 1.70 5.14 35.1
Permanent site 4.45 4.25 1.43 1.36 21.6
Single family 4.20 4.34 1.37 1.24 19.5
Multifamily 0.25 -0.09 0.06 0.11 2.0
Other structures (5) 3.01 -0.97 0.27 3.78 13.5
Equipment 0.09 0.06 0.05 0.02 0.5
(1.) Consists primarily of religious, educational, vocational,
lodging, railroads, farm, and amusement and recreational structures,
net purchases of used structures, and brokers commissions on the sale
of structures.
(2.) Excludes software embedded, or bundled, in computers and other
equipment.
(3.) Includes communication equipment, nonmedical instruments, medical
equipment and instruments, photocopy and related equipment, and office
and accounting equipment.
(4.) Consists primarily of furniture and fixtures, agricultural
machinery, construction machinery, mining and oilfield machinery
service industry machinery, and electrical equipment not elsewhere
classified.
(5.) Consists primarily of manufactured homes, improvements,
dormitories, net purchases of used structures, and brokers'
commissions on the sale of residential structures.
NOTE. Percent changes are from NIPA table 5.3.1, and contributions
to percent change are from NIPA table 5.3.2. Shares are calculated
from NIPA table 5.3.5.
Table 5. Real Change in Private Inventories, by Industry
[Billions of chained (2000) dollars; seasonally adjusted
at annual rates]
Level
2003 2004
II III IV I II
Change in private
inventories (CIPI) -17.6 -3.5 8.6 40.0 57.7
Farm -1.8 -0.7 3.5 5.1 3.0
Mining, utilities,
and construction -1.6 1.2 3.5 -4.5 1.7
Manufacturing -15.1 -20.4 -13.1 3.0 6.2
Durable goods
industries -13.7 -17.7 -1.8 -2.2 5.5
Nondurable goods
industries -1.6 -2.9 -10.9 5.0 0.8
Wholesale trade -4.3 2.3 4.0 8.5 19.4
Durable goods
industries -5.8 -6.9 9.7 11.1 16.7
Nondurable goods
industries 1.2 8.6 -5.2 -2.0 3.2
Retail trade 1.1 13.7 9.4 25.6 25.3
Motor vehicle and
parts dealers 0.7 4.3 -0.9 18.7 11.8
Food and beverage
stores -0.6 0.8 -2.1 0.3 1.5
General merchandise
stores 0.0 0.6 3.3 3.0 3.0
Other retail stores 1.1 8.2 9.2 4.3 9.2
Other industries 4.5 0.5 0.8 2.1 3.0
Residual (1) 0.0 0.5 -0.5 -1.6 -1.7
Addenda: Ratios of private
inventories to final
sales of domestic
business:
Private inventories
to final sales 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4
Nonfarm inventories
to final sales 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
Nonfarm inventories
to final sales of
goods and structures 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.6
Change from
preceding quarter
2003 2004
III IV I II
Change in private
inventories (CIPI) 14.1 12.1 31.4 17.7
Farm 1.1 4.2 1.6 -2.1
Mining, utilities,
and construction 2.8 2.3 -8.0 6.2
Manufacturing -5.3 7.3 16.1 3.2
Durable goods
industries -4.0 15.9 -0.4 7.7
Nondurable goods
industries -1.3 -8.0 15.9 -4.2
Wholesale trade 6.6 1.7 4.5 10.9
Durable goods
industries -1.1 16.6 1.4 5.6
Nondurable goods
industries 7.4 -13.8 3.2 5.2
Retail trade 12.6 -4.3 16.2 -0.3
Motor vehicle and
parts dealers 3.6 -5.2 19.6 -6.9
Food and beverage
stores 1.4 -2.9 2.4 1.2
General merchandise
stores 0.6 2.7 -0.3 0.0
Other retail stores 7.1 1.0 -4.9 4.9
Other industries -4.0 0.3 2.0 0.2
Residual (1) 0.5 -1.0 -1.1 -0.1
Addenda: Ratios of private
inventories to final
sales of domestic
business:
Private inventories
to final sales ... ... ... ...
Nonfarm inventories
to final sales ... ... ... ...
Nonfarm inventories
to final sales of
goods and structures ... ... ... ...
(1.) The residual is the difference between the first line and the sum
of the most detailed lines. It reflects the fact that chained-dollar
estimates are usually not additive, because the quantity indexes on
which they are based embody weights of more than one period.
NOTE. Real change in private inventories is from NIPA table 5.6.6B,
and ratios of private inventories to final sales of domestic business
are from NIPA table 5.7.6B.
Table 6. Real Exports and Imports of Goods and Services
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Change from preceding
period (percent)
2003 2004
III IV I II
Exports of goods and
services 11.3 17.5 7.3 6.1
Exports of goods (1) 10.1 16.1 9.1 5.0
Foods, feeds, and
beverages 10.5 -6.0 -30.0 -25.4
Industrial supplies and
materials 5.2 5.2 14.4 6.8
Capital goods, except
automotive 17.2 31.0 13.1 4.7
Automotive vehicles,
engines, and parts -7.7 14.8 5.1 7.7
Consumer goods, except
automotive 11.0 11.3 18.6 17.6
Other 17.7 7.3 11.4 13.9
Exports of services (1) 14.1 20.6 3.4 8.7
Imports of goods and
services 2.8 17.1 10.6 14.1
Imports of goods (1) 0.0 18.4 12.7 13.6
Foods, feeds, and
beverages 3.4 18.9 2.3 7.7
Industrial supplies and
materials, except
petroleum an 12.1 0.7 16.9 38.0
Petroleum and products 0.6 16.5 39.1 -32.5
Capital goods, except
automotive 2.8 26.0 13.4 31.5
Automotive vehicles,
engines, and parts -8.6 21.7 6.0 10.4
Consumer goods, except
automotive 1.7 21.9 9.6 21.6
Other -19.8 11.8 -2.2 -10.5
Imports of services (1) 17.9 11.1 1.2 16.4
Addenda:
Exports of agricultural
goods (2) 23.7 -19.1 -23.2 -20.3
Exports of
nonagricultural
goods 8.9 20.1 12.7 7.5
Imports of nonpetroleum
goods -0.1 18.6 9.8 21.5
Share of
current-
Contribution to percent dollar
change in real exports and exports
imports (percentage points) and
imports
(percent)
2003 2004 2004
III IV I II II
Exports of goods and
services 11.3 17.5 7.3 6.1 100.0
Exports of goods (1) 7.02 11.21 6.30 3.52 69.6
Foods, feeds, and
beverages 0.55 -0.32 -1.83 -1.42 4.8
Industrial supplies and
materials 0.84 0.87 2.23 1.12 16.8
Capital goods, except
automotive 4.66 8.25 3.61 1.34 28.2
Automotive vehicles,
engines, and parts -0.61 1.13 0.38 0.55 7.3
Consumer goods, except
automotive 0.95 0.99 1.50 1.44 8.8
Other 0.63 0.28 0.41 0.50 3.8
Exports of services (1) 4.26 6.24 1.04 2.62 30.4
Imports of goods and
services 2.8 17.1 10.6 14.1 100.0
Imports of goods (1) -0.01 15.11 10.41 11.36 83.5
Foods, feeds, and
beverages 0.12 0.68 0.08 0.28 3.5
Industrial supplies and
materials, except
petroleum an 1.30 0.16 1.87 3.96 12.5
Petroleum and products 0.05 1.33 3.13 -3.79 9.3
Capital goods, except
automotive 0.53 4.83 2.55 5.60 19.3
Automotive vehicles,
engines, and parts -1.23 2.88 0.82 1.38 13.0
Consumer goods, except
automotive 0.35 4.64 2.08 4.43 21.3
Other -1.14 0.60 -0.11 -0.50 4.4
Imports of services (1) 2.85 1.97 0.21 2.70 16.5
Addenda:
Exports of agricultural
goods (2) ... ... ... ... 5.4
Exports of
nonagricultural
goods ... ... ... ... 64.2
Imports of nonpetroleum
goods ... ... ... ... 74.1
(1.) Exports and imports of certain goods, primarily military
equipment purchased and sold by the Federal Government, are
included in services. Beginning with 1986, repairs and alterations
of equipment are reclassified from goods to services.
(2.) Includes parts of foods, feeds, and beverages, of nondurable
industrial supplies and materials, and of nondurable nonautomotive
consumer goods.
NOTE. Percent changes are from NIPA table 4.2.1, and contributions to
percent charge are from NIPA table 4.2.2. Shares are calculated from
NIPA table 4.2.5.
Table 7. Real Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Change from preceding
period (percent)
2003 2004
III IV I II
Government consumption
expenditures and
gross investment
(CEGI) 0.1 1.6 2.5 2.4
Consumption
expenditures -1.0 2.0 1.9 0.9
Gross investment 6.0 -0.3 5.5 10.0
Federal -3.3 4.8 7.1 2.7
National defense -7.7 11.6 10.6 1.9
Consumption
expenditures -9.5 10.9 7.2 3.9
Gross investment 6.5 16.8 37.2 -11.1
Nondefense 5.8 -7.5 0.2 4.5
Consumption
expenditures 11.9 -8.7 -0.3 -1.0
Gross investment -26.4 1.7 3.9 47.9
State and local 2.2 -0.1 0.0 2.2
Consumption
expenditures 0.1 0.9 0.2 0.0
Gross investment 11.0 -4.1 -1.0 11.7
Share of
Contribution to percent current-
change in real CEGI dollar
(percentage points) CEGI
(percent)
2003 2004 2004
III IV I II II
Government consumption
expenditures and
gross investment
(CEGI) 0.1 1.6 2.5 2.4 100.0
Consumption
expenditures -0.85 1.67 1.61 0.73 82.4
Gross investment 0.99 -0.05 0.94 1.68 17.6
Federal -1.21 1.71 2.56 1.00 37.0
National defense -1.92 2.66 2.53 0.47 24.9
Consumption
expenditures -2.10 2.20 1.53 0.84 21.8
Gross investment 0.18 0.46 1.00 -0.37 3.1
Nondefense 0.70 -0.95 0.03 0.54 12.1
Consumption
expenditures 1.21 -0.98 -0.03 -0.10 10.4
Gross investment -0.50 0.03 0.06 0.64 1.7
State and local 1.35 -0.09 -0.01 1.41 63.0
Consumption
expenditures 0.04 0.45 0.12 -0.01 50.2
Gross investment 1.31 -0.54 -0.12 1.41 12.8
NOTE. Percent changes are from NIPA table 3.9.1, and contributions to
percent change are from NIPA table 3.9.2. Shares are calculated from
NIPA table 3.9.5.
Table 8. Price Indexes
[Percent change at annual rates; based on seasonally adjusted index
numbers (2000=100)]
Change from preceding
period (percent)
2003 2004
III IV I II
Gross domestic purchases 1.7 1.4 3.4 3.5
Personal consumption
expenditures 1.6 1.2 3.3 3.2
Durable goods -4.4 -4.3 0.0 -0.1
Nondurable goods 3.5 0.5 5.3 6.6
Services 2.0 2.7 3.0 2.2
Gross private domestic
investment 1.2 2.7 2.1 4.3
Fixed investment 1.2 2.8 2.0 4.2
Nonresidential 0.3 1.2 0.3 1.8
Structures 1.3 1.4 4.8 6.6
Equipment and software 0.0 1.2 -1.1 0.4
Residential 3.1 5.8 5.4 8.6
Change in private
inventories ... ... ... ...
Government consumption
expenditures and gross
investment 2.2 1.0 5.1 4.2
Federal 1.1 1.0 6.6 2.9
National defense 1.1 1.3 5.7 3.5
Nondefense 1.0 0.3 8.3 1.8
State and local 2.9 1.0 4.2 5.0
Addenda:
Gross domestic purchases:
Food 2.7 4.1 2.8 4.2
Energy goods and services 10.6 -7.1 27.0 24.9
Excluding food and energy 1.2 1.5 2.5 2.5
Personal consumptions
expenditures:
Food 2.8 3.9 2.6 3.9
Energy goods and services 11.0 -8.5 26.7 26.6
Excluding food and energy 0.9 1.3 2.1 1.7
Gross domestic product 1.4 1.6 2.8 3.2
Contribution to percent
change in gross domestic
purchases prices
(percentage points)
2003 2004
III IV I II
Gross domestic purchases 1.70 1.40 3.40 3.50
Personal consumption
expenditures 1.10 0.82 2.19 2.11
Durable goods -0.37 -0.37 0.00 -0.01
Nondurable goods 0.67 0.11 1.00 1.25
Services 0.80 1.08 1.20 0.87
Gross private domestic
investment 0.17 0.40 0.32 0.66
Fixed investment 0.18 0.40 0.30 0.62
Nonresidential 0.03 0.12 0.03 0.18
Structures 0.03 0.03 0.10 0.14
Equipment and software 0.00 0.09 -0.08 0.03
Residential 0. |
|
