Continued from page 1.
Residential. Real private residential investment increased 8.8 percent in the first quarter after increasing 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter. Investment in single-family structures accelerated sharply, increasing 12.7 percent after no change in the fourth quarter.
Inventory Investment
Real inventory investment picked up in the first quarter of 2005, increasing $21.2 billion, to $68.4 billion, after increasing $12.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2004 (table 5 and chart 6). The pickup was mainly in manufacturing inventories.
Manufacturing inventories increased $25.9 billion after increasing $4.6 billion. A pickup in inventories of durable-goods industries was led by an upturn in inventories of transportation equipment manufacturing (both motor vehicles and other transportation equipment). Inventories of nondurable-goods industries also picked up; upturns in inventories of petroleum manufacturing and of beverage and tobacco products manufacturing were partly offset by a downturn in inventories of chemical manufacturing.
Inventories of the mining, utilities, and construction industries and of "other" industries increased more in the first quarter than in the fourth quarter.
Wholesale trade inventories increased $22.6 billion, about the same increase as in the fourth quarter. A pickup in inventories of nonmerchant wholesalers was largely offset by a deceleration in inventories of merchant wholesalers; the biggest contributors to the deceleration were downturns in inventories of miscellaneous nondurable-goods wholesalers and of professional and commercial equipment wholesalers. The deceleration was moderated by an upturn in inventories of miscellaneous durable-goods wholesalers and by an acceleration in inventories of farm product raw material wholesalers.
Retail trade inventories increased $13.9 billion after increasing $15.3 billion. Inventories of building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers increased less than in the fourth quarter; inventories of furniture, furnishings, electronics, and appliance stores turned down in the first quarter, and inventories of general merchandise stores increased less than in the fourth quarter. In contrast, inventories of motor vehicle and parts dealers turned up in the first quarter, and inventories of clothing stores increased more than in the fourth quarter.
Farm inventories decreased $0.2 billion after increasing $1.7 billion. Crop inventories turned down in the first quarter, but livestock inventories turned up.
The ratio of real private nonfarm inventories to final sales of goods and structures increased to 3.52 from 3.50. A ratio that includes all final sales of domestic businesses in the denominator increased to 2.21 from 2.20.9
Exports and Imports
Real exports of goods and services accelerated in the first quarter of 2005, and real imports of goods and services decelerated (table 6).
Real exports of goods and services increased 7.2 percent after increasing 3.2 percent (chart 7). The step-up was in exports of goods, which increased 8.7 percent after increasing 1.9 percent. Exports of "other" goods turned up, exports of nonautomotive capital goods accelerated, and exports of automotive goods turned up. In contrast, exports of foods, feeds, and beverages turned down.
Exports of services decelerated, increasing 3.6 percent after increasing 6.2 percent. The deceleration was mainly due to a deceleration in travel.
Real imports of goods and services increased 9.1 percent after increasing 11.4 percent (chart 8). The deceleration reflected a deceleration in imports of goods, which increased 9.8 percent after increasing 14.9 percent. Imports of petroleum, of nonautomotive consumer goods, and of nonautomotive capital goods decelerated. In contrast, imports of "other" goods accelerated, and imports of automotive goods turned up.
Imports of services turned up, increasing 5.3 percent after decreasing 5.2 percent. The upturn primarily reflected travel, which decreased less than in the fourth quarter, and royalties and license fees, which turned up in the first quarter.
Government Spending
Government spending decreased 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2005 after increasing 0.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2004 (table 7 and chart 9). A downturn in state and local government spending and a slowdown in Federal nondefense spending were partly offset by an upturn in spending on national defense.
State and local government spending decreased 0.5 percent after increasing 0.6 percent. Gross investment decreased more than in the fourth quarter, and consumption expenditures decelerated. Investment in structures decreased 7.8 percent after decreasing 3.9 percent; equipment and software increased 8.6 percent after increasing 10.3 percent. Consumption expenditures increased 0.6 percent after increasing 1.1 percent; the deceleration was mainly attributable to compensation of employees.
Federal nondefense spending increased 0.7 percent after increasing 5.3 percent; gross investment turned down, and consumption expenditures decelerated. In gross investment, structures decreased 30.1 percent after decreasing 11.2 percent, and equipment and software increased 3.9 percent after increasing 23.1 percent. Consumption expenditures increased 1.9 percent after increasing 4.3 percent; the slowdown reflected downturns in compensation and in services.
National defense spending increased 0.3 percent after decreasing 0.6 percent. An upturn in consumption expenditures was partly offset by a downturn in gross investment. The upturn in consumption expenditures was attributable to an upturn in "intermediate goods and services purchased," specifically in services and in nondurable goods; in contrast, compensation turned down. The downturn in gross investment was in equipment and software, reflecting downturns in "other" equipment and in aircraft.
Prices
Inflation as measured by the price index for gross domestic purchases was 2.9 percent in the first quarter of 2005, the same as in the fourth quarter of 2004 (table 8). Both food prices and energy prices decelerated in the first quarter; excluding prices for food and energy, the price index increased 3.0 percent after increasing 2.0 percent (chart 10).
Prices of goods and services purchased by consumers increased 2.1 percent after increasing 2.7 percent. The prices paid for nondurable goods decelerated, but the prices paid for services and for durable goods accelerated.
The prices paid by consumers for food and for energy decelerated in the first quarter. The price index for consumer purchases excluding food and energy, which is sometimes viewed as an indicator of the underlying or core rate of inflation, increased 2.2 percent after increasing 1.7 percent. The largest contributors to this acceleration were the prices of housing services, of medical care services, and of motor vehicles and parts.
Prices of private nonresidential fixed investment increased 2.6 percent after increasing 1.6 percent. Prices of equipment and software turned up, mainly reflecting an upturn in the prices of software and an acceleration in the prices of "other" equipment. Prices of structures decelerated slightly.
Prices paid by government increased 6.3 percent after increasing 4.2 percent. The step-up was accounted for by prices paid by the Federal Government; these prices reflected a pay raise for civilian and military personnel. (10) Prices paid by state and local governments decelerated slightly.
The GDP price index increased 3.2 percent, 0.3 percentage point more than the price index for gross domestic purchases. (The GDP price index measures the prices paid for goods and services produced in the United States. The price index for gross domestic purchases measures the prices paid for goods and services purchased by U.S. residents, regardless of where those goods and services were produced.) The larger increase in the GDP price index reflected a larger increase in export prices (which are included in the GDP price index) than in import prices (which are included in the price index for gross domestic purchases). In the first quarter, export prices increased 4.3 percent, and import prices increased 2.4 percent.
Revisions
The preliminary estimate of a 3.5-percent increase in real GDP in the first quarter is 0.4 percentage point more than the advance estimate released in April (table 9). During the past 25 years, the average revision, without regard to sign, from the advance estimates to the preliminary estimates has been 0.5 percentage point.
The upward revision to the first-quarter real GDP growth rate reflected a downward revision to imports (which are subtracted in the calculation of GDP) that was partly offset by a downward revision to inventory investment.
In the preliminary estimates, imports subtracted 1.38 percentage points from GDP growth; in the advance estimates, imports had subtracted 2.19 percentage points from GDP growth. The revisions to imports mainly reflected the incorporation of newly available Census Bureau data on trade in goods for March.
Change in private inventories added 0.43 percentage point less to the GDP growth rate in the preliminary estimates than in the advance estimates. The revision primarily reflected the incorporation of newly available data on inventories for March and revised data for February.
In addition to these revised estimates for the first quarter of 2005, estimates of wages and salaries and of related series for the fourth quarter of 2004 have been revised. These revisions reflect the incorporation of newly available tabulations of wages and salaries from the census of employment and wages from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. These tabulations provide more comprehensive coverage than is available for the earlier estimates of quarterly wages and salaries, and they include wages in the form of stock options and bonus payments. Wage and salary accruals are now estimated to have increased $135.8 billion in the fourth quarter, an upward revision of $71.0 billion.
Personal current taxes for both the first quarter and the fourth quarter were also revised to incorporate the revised estimates of wages and salaries and to incorporate newly available Treasury Department data on Federal tax collections through mid-May. (11) Personal current taxes are now estimated to have increased $35.5 billion in the fourth quarter (an upward revision of $14.9 billion) and to have increased $61.5 billion in the first quarter (an upward revision of $58.8 billion).
Based on the revised estimates of wages and salaries, of personal current taxes, and of other related series, real disposable personal income (DPI) is now estimated to have increased 10.8 percent in the fourth quarter, revised up from 8.3 percent. Real DPI is now estimated to have decreased 1.2 percent in the first quarter; previously, real DPI had been estimated to have decreased 0.3 percent. The personal saving rate (personal saving as a percentage of current-dollar DPI) is now estimated to have decreased to 0.9 percent in the first quarter from 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter; previously, the personal saving rate had been estimated to have decreased to 0.6 percent from 1.6 percent.
Corporate Profits
Profits from current production increased $57.5 billion (4.5 percent at a quarterly rate) in the first quarter of 2005 after increasing $150.8 billion (13.5 percent) in the fourth quarter of 2004 (table 10)22 The large fourth-quarter increase in profits partly reflected the effects of four hurricanes that had reduced third-quarter profits by $79.7 billion (annual rate); excluding the effects of the third-quarter hurricanes, profits from current production increased 5.9 percent in the fourth quarter.
In the first quarter, both profits of domestic industries and profits from the rest of the world increased. In the fourth quarter, profits of domestic industries increased, and profits from the rest of the world were unchanged. (13)
Taxes on corporate income increased $47.5 billion (16.1 percent) in the first quarter. After-tax profits from current production increased $10.0 billion (1.0 percent).
The increase in profits of domestic industries was accounted for by profits of financial corporations, which increased $42.0 billion (11.6 percent) after increasing $84.1 billion (30.1 percent). In contrast, profits of nonfinancial corporations decreased $5.6 billion (0.8 percent) after increasing $66.7 billion (10.3 percent). Real gross value added increased, but profits per unit decreased. The decrease in unit profits reflected an increase in unit prices that was more than offset by an increase in unit labor costs; unit nonlabor costs were unchanged.
Profits from the rest of the world increased $21.1 billion (11.2 percent) after no change in the fourth quarter. The first-quarter increase reflected a larger decrease in payments by domestic affiliates to foreign parents (which are deducted in the calculation of profits from the rest of the world) than the decrease in receipts from foreign affiliates of domestic parents. Payments by domestic affiliates to foreign parents decreased $33.5 billion (21.6 percent) after increasing $30.8 billion (24.7 percent). Receipts from foreign affiliates of domestic parents decreased $12.4 billion (3.6 percent) after increasing $30.8 billion (9.8 percent).
Net dividends decreased $91.9 billion (17.2 percent) after increasing $110.7 billion (26.1 percent). The large fourth-quarter increase reflected the special dividend payment by the Microsoft Corporation. (14) Undistributed corporate profits (a measure of net saving that equals after-tax profits less dividends) increased $101.9 billion (23.2 percent) in the first quarter after decreasing $2.4 billion (0.5 percent).
Net cash flow from current production, a profits-related measure of internally generated funds available for investment, increased $103.4 (8.4 percent) billion in the first quarter; in contrast, net cash flow decreased $37.7 billion (3.0 percent) in the fourth quarter, (15) The ratio of cash flow to nonresidential fixed investment, an indicator of the extent to which the current level of investment could be financed by internally generated corporate funds increased to 102.4 in the first quarter from 95.9 in the fourth quarter. Preceding the fourth quarter, the ratio had remained above 100 for eight consecutive quarters.
Government Sector
"Net government saving," the difference between current receipts and expenditures, was -$246.6 billion in the first quarter of 2005, increasing $49.5 billion from -$296.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2004 (table 11). (16) The increase resulted from an increase in net Federal Government saving, which was partly offset by a decrease in net state and local government saving.
Federal
Net Federal Government saving was -$278.6 billion in the first quarter of 2005, increasing $53.1 billion from -$331.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2004. Both current receipts and current expenditures accelerated.
Current receipts. Federal Government current receipts increased $118.4 billion in the first quarter after increasing $91.2 billion in the fourth quarter. The acceleration was more than accounted for by accelerations in current tax receipts and in contributions for government social insurance; the acceleration was tempered by a larger first-quarter decrease in the current surplus of government enterprises and by decelerations in current transfer receipts and in income receipts on assets.
Current tax receipts increased $96.5 billion after increasing $70.5 billion. The acceleration was accounted for by accelerations in personal current taxes and in taxes on corporate income. Personal current taxes increased $52.9 billion after increasing $29.5 billion, reflecting an acceleration in nonwithheld income taxes, which increased $37.8 billion after increasing $4.4 billion. Taxes on corporate income increased $42.0 billion after increasing $35.3 billion. In contrast, taxes from the rest of the world turned down, decreasing $1.2 billion after increasing $2.1 billion; fourth-quarter taxes were boosted by taxes paid on the Microsoft dividends. Taxes on production and imports decelerated, increasing $3.0 billion after increasing $3.5 billion; the deceleration was primarily due to decelerations in air transport excise taxes.
Contributions for government social insurance increased $22.7 billion after increasing $18.4 billion. The acceleration was more than accounted for by supplementary medical insurance, which increased $5.7 billion after increasing $0.1 billion; the first-quarter increase resulted from an increase in the monthly premium paid by participants in Medicare Part B from $66.60 to $75.30 in January.
Current surplus of government enterprises decreased $1.7 billion after decreasing $0.2 billion. Current transfer receipts increased $0.4 billion after increasing $1.8 billion, and income receipts on assets increased $0.3 billion after increasing $0.8 billion.
Current expenditures. Federal Government current expenditures increased $65.4 billion after increasing $47.9 billion. The acceleration was more than accounted for by accelerations in consumption expenditures and in subsidies that were partly offset by a downturn in interest payments and a slight deceleration in current transfer payments.
Consumption expenditures increased $23.4 billion after increasing $0.6 billion. The acceleration was accounted for by an upturn in defense consumption expenditures and an acceleration in nondefense consumption expenditures.
Continued from page 3.
Defense consumption expenditures increased $17.3 billion after decreasing $3.1 billion. The turnaround was accounted for by an upturn in expenditures for defense services, which increased $9.5 billion after decreasing $7.9 billion (these expenditures consist of expenditures for research and development, for transportation of materials, for travel, and for other services). Compensation of defense employees increased $7.0 billion after increasing $1.4 billion; the acceleration was mostly accounted for by the January 2005 pay raise, which boosted compensation $4.5 billion.
Nondefense consumption expenditures increased $6.2 billion after increasing $3.6 billion. The acceleration was accounted for by compensation of nondefense employees, which increased $3.0 billion after increasing $0.5 billion; the pickup in compensation was mostly accounted for by the January 2005 pay raise, which boosted compensation $2.7 billion.
Subsidies increased $4.9 billion after increasing $2.6 billion. The acceleration was accounted for by agricultural subsidies.
In contrast, interest payments decreased $1.7 billion after increasing $4.2 billion. The downturn was more than accounted for by interest paid to persons and business, which decreased $9.4 billion after decreasing $1.2 billion.
Current transfer payments increased $38.6 billion after increasing $40.6 billion. The deceleration was more than accounted for by a deceleration in "other current transfer payments" that was partly offset by an acceleration in government social benefit payments.
"Other current transfer payments" increased $12.4 billion after increasing $22.6 billion. The deceleration was more than accounted for by a downturn in grants-in-aid to state and local governments, which decreased $0.8 billion after increasing $19.5 billion. The downturn was primarily accounted for by a downturn in grants for education, which decreased $7.7 billion after increasing $5.5 billion; grants for "other income support" and for welfare and social services also turned down.
The downturn in grants-in-aid to state and local governments was moderated by an acceleration in "other current transfer payments to the rest of the world;' which increased $13.3 billion after increasing $3.1 billion. The acceleration reflected a payment of $3.0 billion ($12.0 billion at an annual rate) to Israel and Egypt for economic support.
Federal Government social benefits increased $26.2 billion after increasing $18.0 billion. The acceleration mainly reflected a 2.7-percent cost-of-living adjustment that boosted benefits $15.2 billion for social security (old-age, survivors, disability, and health insurance), veterans pensions, supplemental security income, and other programs. The acceleration was also attributable to payments for the Earned Income and Child Tax Credits, which boosted social benefits $5.3 billion.
State and local
Net state and local government saving was $32.0 billion in the first quarter of 2005, decreasing $3.6 billion from $35.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2004. Current receipts decelerated sharply, and current expenditures accelerated.
Current receipts. State and local government current receipts increased $25.8 billion after increasing $57.3 billion. The deceleration was mostly accounted for by a deceleration in current transfer receipts, but current tax receipts also decelerated.
Current transfer receipts increased $1.6 billion after increasing $28.8 billion. The deceleration was mostly accounted for by a downturn in Federal grants-in-aid, which decreased $0.8 billion after increasing $19.5 billion. Transfer receipts from business increased $0.7 billion after increasing $7.8 billion; third-quarter receipts were reduced as a result of the effects of the hurricanes on the transactions of state-owned insurance enterprises in Florida and Louisiana.
Current tax receipts increased $25.3 billion after increasing $27.7 billion. The deceleration was accounted for by a deceleration in taxes on production and imports, which increased $12.2 billion after increasing $15.5 billion, mostly as a result of a deceleration in state sales taxes. Taxes on corporate income increased $4.5 billion after increasing $6.3 billion.
Current expenditures. State and local government current expenditures increased $29.4 billion after increasing $26.2 billion. Government social benefit payments accelerated, and consumption expenditures decelerated.
Government social benefit payments increased $14.3 billion after increasing $9.4 billion. The acceleration was mainly attributable to an acceleration in Medicaid payments.
Consumption expenditures increased $14.2 billion after increasing $16.1 billion. The deceleration was more than accounted for by a deceleration in the purchases of nondurable goods, which increased $4.8 billion after increasing $9.8 billion.
Net lending or net borrowing
"Net lending or net borrowing (-)" is an alternative measure of the government fiscal position. It is the financing requirement of the government sector, and it is derived as net government saving plus the consumption of fixed capital and "capital transfers received (net)" less gross investment and net purchases of non-produced assets. (17)
Net borrowing was $388.9 billion in the first quarter, decreasing $59.4 billion from $448.3 billion in the fourth quarter. Federal Government net borrowing was $327.9 billion in the first quarter, decreasing $58.4 billion from $386.3 billion in the fourth quarter; net Federal Government saving increased $53.1 billion after increasing $43.3 billion. State and local government net borrowing was $61.0 billion in the first quarter, decreasing $1.0 billion from $62.0 billion in the fourth quarter.
Gross government investment turned down, decreasing $4.1 billion after increasing $10.6 billion. (18) Federal Government gross investment decreased $5.9 billion after increasing $6.6 billion; both defense gross investment and nondefense gross investment turned down. State and local government gross investment increased $1.8 billion after increasing $4.0 billion; the deceleration was mostly accounted for by a deceleration in gross investment for structures, which increased $0.8 billion after increasing $2.8 billion.
Continued from page 4.
Table 1. Real Gross Domestic Product and Components
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Change from preceding
period (percent)
2004 2005
II III IV I
Gross domestic product 3.3 4.0 3.8 3.5
Personal consumption
expenditures 1.6 5.1 4.2 3.6
Durable goods -0.3 17.2 3.9 1.7
Nondurable goods 0.1 4.7 5.9 5.4
Services 2.7 3.0 3.4 3.2
Gross private domestic
investment 19.0 2.4 13.3 10.0
Fixed investment 13.9 8.8 10.5 5.3
Nonresidential 12.5 13.0 14.5 3.5
Structures 6.9 -1.1 2.1 -3.3
Equipment and software 14.2 17.5 18.4 5.6
Residential 16.5 1.6 3.4 8.8
Change in private inventories
Net exports of goods and
services
Exports 7.3 6.0 3.2 7.2
Goods 6.0 9.5 1.9 8.7
Services 10.2 -1.8 6.2 3.6
Imports 12.6 4.6 11.4 9.1
Goods 13.0 5.0 14.9 9.8
Services 10.6 2.8 -5.2 5.3
Government consumption
expenditures and gross
investment 2.2 0.7 0.9 -0.2
Federal 2.7 4.8 1.2 0.4
National defense 1.9 10.1 -0.6 0.3
Nondefense 4.4 -5.3 5.3 0.7
State and local 1.9 -1.7 0.6 -0.5
Contribution to percent
change in real GDP
(percentage points)
2004 2005
II III IV I
Gross domestic product 3.3 4.0 3.8 3.5
Personal consumption
expenditures 1.10 3.57 2.92 2.54
Durable goods -0.02 1.37 0.33 0.15
Nondurable goods 0.03 0.94 1.19 1.09
Services 1.10 1.26 1.41 1.30
Gross private domestic
investment 2.85 0.40 2.11 1.65
Fixed investment 2.07 1.37 1.65 0.87
Nonresidential 1.21 1.27 1.46 0.38
Structures 0.16 -0.03 0.05 -0.08
Equipment and software 1.05 1.30 1.41 0.46
Residential 0.86 0.09 0.19 0.49
Change in private inventories 0.78 -0.97 0.46 0.78
Net exports of goods and
services -1.06 -0.10 -1.35 -0.67
Exports 0.70 0.59 0.32 0.71
Goods 0.41 0.64 0.14 0.60
Services 0.30 -0.06 0.18 0.11
Imports -1.77 -0.69 -1.67 -1.38
Goods -1.52 -0.62 -1.80 -1.25
Services -0.25 -0.07 0.13 -0.13
Government consumption
expenditures and gross
investment 0.41 0.13 0.16 -0.03
Federal 0.18 0.33 0.09 0.03
National defense 0.09 0.45 -0.03 0.01
Nondefense 0.10 -0.12 0.11 0.02
State and local 0.23 -0.20 0.07 -0.06
Share of
current-
dollar
GDP
(percent)
2005
I
Gross domestic product 100.0
Personal consumption
expenditures 70.1
Durable goods 8.4
Nondurable goods 20.4
Services 41.3
Gross private domestic
investment 17.1
Fixed investment 16.5
Nonresidential 10.7
Structures 2.4
Equipment and software 8.3
Residential 5.8
Change in private inventories 0.6
Net exports of goods and
services -5.7
Exports 10.2
Goods 7.2
Services 3.1
Imports 15.9
Goods 13.4
Services 2.5
Government consumption
expenditures and gross
investment 18.5
Federal 6.9
National defense 4.7
Nondefense 2.2
State and local 11.6
NOTE. Percent changes are from NIPA table 1.1.1, and contributions to
percent change are from NIPA table 1.1.2. Shares are from NIPA table
1.1.10.
Table 2. Real Gross Domestic Product by Type of Product
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Change from preceding
period (percent)
2004 2005
II III IV I
Gross domestic product (GDP) 3.3 4.0 3.8 3.5
Final sales of domestic
product 2.5 5.0 3.4 2.7
Change in private inventories
Goods 2.5 8.3 6.1 5.2
Services 2.3 2.8 3.0 2.8
Structures 12.7 -2.5 1.4 2.3
Addenda:
Motor vehicle output -15.2 10.4 27.6 6.4
GDP excluding motor vehicle
output 4.0 3.8 3.1 3.4
Final sales of computers 0.1 20.7 74.6 68.5
GDP excluding final sales of
computers 3.3 3.9 3.3 2.9
Contribution to percent
change in real GDP
(percentage points)
2004 2005
II III IV I
Gross domestic product (GDP) 3.3 4.0 3.8 3.5
Final sales of domestic
product 2.52 4.97 3.38 2.71
Change in private inventories 0.78 -0.97 0.46 0.78
Goods 0.82 2.67 1.99 1.68
Services 1.30 1.59 1.71 1.57
Structures 1.19 -0.25 0.14 0.23
Addenda:
Motor vehicle output -0.58 0.34 0.86 0.23
GDP excluding motor vehicle
output 3.88 3.66 2.99 3.26
Final sales of computers 0.00 0.18 0.56 0.56
GDP excluding final sales of
computers 3.30 3.82 3.28 2.92
Share of
current-dollar
GDP
(percent)
2005
I
Gross domestic product (GDP) 100.0
Final sales of domestic
product 99.4
Change in private inventories 0.6
Goods 32.7
Services 57.2
Structures 10.1
Addenda:
Motor vehicle output 3.6
GDP excluding motor vehicle
output 96.4
Final sales of computers 1.1
GDP excluding final sales of
computers 98.9
NOTE. Percent changes are from NIPA table 1.2.1, and contributions to
percent change are from NIPA table 1.2.2. Shares are calculated from
NIPA table 1.2.5.
Table 3. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Change from preceding
period (percent)
2004 2005
II III IV I
Personal consumption
expenditures (PCE) 1.6 5.1 4.2 3.6
Durable goods -0.3 17.2 3.9 1.7
Motor vehicles and parts -6.0 28.7 -0.5 -8.5
Furniture and household
equipment 7.4 11.6 7.3 11.0
Other (1) -0.2 3.5 8.3 11.0
Nondurable goods 0.1 4.7 5.9 5.4
Food 2.3 4.4 7.7 5.9
Clothing and shoes -5.3 6.0 10.2 5.5
Gasoline, fuel oil, and other
energy goods -13.2 2.6 -1.1 6.9
Other (2) 4.5 5.3 3.5 4.0
Services 2.7 3.0 3.4 3.2
Housing 2.0 2.4 2.3 2.4
Household operation -0.9 1.3 5.4 1.0
Electricity and gas -8.0 -0.9 12.7 -1.6
Other household operation. 4.0 2.7 0.9 2.8
Transportation 2.9 1.7 4.2 2.1
Medical care 4.4 5.0 4.3 4.8
Recreation 0.3 2.7 -1.3 5.0
Other (3) 3.3 2.5 4.1 2.6
Contribution to percent
change in real PCE
(percentage points)
2004 2005
II III IV I
Personal consumption
expenditures (PCE) 1.6 5.1 4.2 3.6
Durable goods -0.03 1.97 0.47 0.21
Motor vehicles and parts -0.34 1.40 -0.03 -0.48
Furniture and household
equipment 0.31 0.48 0.31 0.45
Other (1) -0.01 0.08 0.19 0.25
Nondurable goods 0.04 1.35 1.71 1.57
Food 0.32 0.61 1.07 0.82
Clothing and shoes -0.22 0.24 0.39 0.22
Gasoline, fuel oil, and other
energy goods -0.42 0.08 -0.03 0.21
Other (2) 0.35 0.43 0.28 0.32
Services 1.56 1.82 2.02 1.86
Housing 0.30 0.37 0.34 0.37
Household operation -0.05 0.07 0.30 0.06
Electricity and gas -0.18 -0.02 0.26 -0.04
Other household operation. 0.13 0.09 0.03 0.09
Transportation 0.11 0.06 0.15 0.08
Medical care 0.74 0.85 0.72 0.81
Recreation 0.01 0.11 -0.05 0.20
Other (3) 0.45 0.35 0.56 0.36
Share of
current-
dollar
PCE
(percent)
2005
I
Personal consumption
expenditures (PCE) 100.0
Durable goods 12.0
Motor vehicles and parts 5.4
Furniture and household
equipment 4.3
Other (1) 2.4
Nondurable goods 29.1
Food 14.1
Clothing and shoes 4.0
Gasoline, fuel oil, and other
energy goods 3.1
Other (2) 7.9
Services 58.9
Housing 15.0
Household operation 5.5
Electricity and gas 2.2
Other household operation. 3.3
Transportation 3.6
Medical care 17.0
Recreation 4.0
Other (3) 13.8
(1.) Includes jewelry and watches, ophthalmic products and orthopedic
equipment, books and maps, bicycles and motorcycles, guns and sporting
equipment, photographic equipment, boats, and pleasure aircraft.
(2.) Includes tobacco, toilet articles, drug preparations and sundries,
stationery and writing supplies, toys, film, flowers, cleaning
preparations and paper products, semidurable house furnishings, and
magazines and newspapers.
(3.) Includes personal care, personal business, education and research,
religious and welfare activities, and net foreign travel.
NOTE. Percent changes are from NIPA table 2.3.1, and contributions to
percent change are from NIPA table 2.3.2. Shares are calculated from
NIPA table 2.3.5.
Table 4. Real Private Fixed Investment
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Change from preceding
period (percent)
2004 2005
II III IV I
Private fixed investment
(PFI) 13.9 8.8 10.5 5.3
Nonresidential 12.5 13.0 14.5 3.5
Structures 6.9 -1.1 2.1 -3.3
Commercial and health care 21.3 -1.8 -9.6 -5.6
Manufacturing -14.2 25.4 70.9 19.5
Power and communication -37.0 -20.9 15.0 19.8
Mining exploration, shafts
and wells 20.0 9.5 23.7 -6.4
Other structures (1) 16.8 1.6 -8.6 -14.6
Equipment and software 14.2 17.5 18.4 5.6
Information processing
equipment and software 14.1 7.5 17.7 21.1
Computers and peripheral
equipment 26.5 20.7 52.6 50.1
Software (2) 8.7 6.8 20.5 13.0
Other (3) 12.7 1.1 -1.7 13.2
Industrial equipment 2.1 27.7 7.6 4.1
Transportation equipment 26.1 38.1 40.6 -16.9
Other equipment (4) 16.1 22.6 12.1 -10.7
Residential 16.5 1.6 3.4 8.8
Structures 16.7 1.5 3.3 8.9
Permanent site 9.0 2.7 0.5 13.4
Single family 8.9 3.0 0.0 12.7
Multifamily 9.8 0.2 4.5 19.9
Other structures (5) 30.5 -0.4 8.1 1.9
Equipment 3.7 9.1 8.3 -1.1
Contribution to percent
change in real PFI
(percentage points)
2004 2005
II III IV I
Private fixed investment
(PFI) 13.9 8.8 10.5 5.3
Nonresidential 8.11 8.21 9.25 2.32
Structures 1.07 -0.16 0.32 -0.49
Commercial and health care 1.24 -0.11 -0.62 -0.35
Manufacturing -0.12 0.17 0.44 0.16
Power and communication -1.03 -0.48 0.28 0.38
Mining exploration, shafts
and wells 0.42 0.21 0.52 -0.17
Other structures (1) 0.55 0.05 -0.3 -0.51
Equipment and software 7.05 8.37 8.93 2.80
Information processing
equipment and software 3.67 1.92 4.34 4.96
Computers and peripheral
equipment 1.47 1.14 2.63 2.54
Software (2) 0.87 0.66 1.87 1.19
Other (3) 1.33 0.11 -0.16 1.22
Industrial equipment 0.17 2.03 0.62 0.33
Transportation equipment 1.88 2.64 2.95 -1.53
Other equipment (4) 1.32 1.78 1.02 -0.95
Residential 5.76 0.59 1.22 3.02
Structures 5.74 0.55 1.18 3.03
Permanent site 1.99 0.60 0.10 2.78
Single family 1.78 0.60 0.01 2.39
Multifamily 0.21 0.00 0.10 0.39
Other structures (5) 3.75 -0.05 1.08 0.25
Equipment 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.00
Share of
current-
dollar
PFI
(percent)
2005
I
Private fixed investment
(PFI) 100.0
Nonresidential 64.8
Structures 14.6
Commercial and health care 5.9
Manufacturing 0.9
Power and communication 2.1
Mining exploration, shafts
and wells 2.6
Other structures (1) 3.1
Equipment and software 50.2
Information processing
equipment and software 25.8
Computers and peripheral
equipment 6.3
Software (2) 9.8
Other (3) 9.8
Industrial equipment 8.1
Transportation equipment 8.0
Other equipment (4) 8.3
Residential 35.2
Structures 34.7
Permanent site 21.7
Single family 19.6
Multifamily 2.1
Other structures (5) 13.0
Equipment 0.4
(1.) Consists primarily of religious, educational, vocational, lodging,
railroads, farm, and amusement and recreational structures, net
purchases of used structures, and brokers' commissions on the sale of
structures.
(2.) Excludes software "embedded," or bundled, in computers and other
equipment.
(3.) Includes communication equipment, nonmedical instruments, medical
equipment and instruments, photocopy and related equipment, and office
and accounting equipment.
(4.) Consists primarily of furniture and fixtures, agricultural
machinery, construction machinery, mining and oilfield machinery,
service industry machinery, and electrical equipment not elsewhere
classified.
(5.) Consists primarily of manufactured homes, improvements,
dormitories, net purchases of used structures, and brokers' commissions
on the sale of residential structures.
NOTE. Percent changes are from NIPA table 5.3.1, and contributions to
percent change are from NIPA table 5.3.2. Shares are calculated from
NIPA table 5.3.5.
Table 5. Real Change in Private Inventories by Industry
[Billions of chained (2000) dollars; seasonally adjusted at annual
rates]
Level
2004
I II III IV
Change in private
inventories 40.0 61.1 34.5 47.2
Farm 5.1 3.0 3.8 1.7
Mining, utilities, and construction -4.5 -1.7 4.5 0.7
Manufacturing 3.0 9.1 7.0 4.6
Durable-goods industries -2.2 5.9 7.8 3.7
Nondurable-goods industries 5.0 3.3 -0.6 0.9
Wholesale trade 8.5 20.0 33.2 22.3
Durable-goods industries 11.1 16.4 27.2 14.9
Nondurable-goods industries -2.0 4.0 6.6 7.6
Retail trade 25.6 29.9 -20.1 15.3
Motor vehicle and parts dealers 18.7 17.1 -23.1 -7.2
Food and beverage stores 0.3 1.6 -0.1 0.7
General merchandise stores 3.0 2.7 0.3 7.2
Other retail stores 4.3 8.9 1.6 14.0
Other industries 2.8 2.3 4.1 3.4
Residual (1) -1.6 -2.4 2.4 -0.4
Addenda: Ratios of private
inventories to final sales of
domestic business:
Private inventories to final sales 2.42 2.43 2.40 2.40
Nonfarm inventories to final
sales 2.22 2.22 2.20 2.20
Nonfarm inventories to final
sales of goods and structures 3.54 3.55 3.50 3.50
Change from
Level preceding quarter
2005 2004
I II III IV
Change in private
inventories 68.4 21.1 -26.6 12.7
Farm -0.2 -2.1 0.8 -2.1
Mining, utilities, and construction 2.5 2.8 6.2 -3.8
Manufacturing 25.9 6.1 -2.1 -2.4
Durable-goods industries 18.7 8.1 1.9 -4.1
Nondurable-goods industries 7.5 -1.7 -3.9 1.5
Wholesale trade 22.6 11.5 13.2 -10.9
Durable-goods industries 15.7 5.3 10.8 -12.3
Nondurable-goods industries 7.0 6.0 2.6 1.0
Retail trade 13.9 4.3 -50.0 35.4
Motor vehicle and parts dealers 3.3 -1.6 -40.2 15.9
Food and beverage stores -0.2 1.3 -1.7 0.8
General merchandise stores 4.4 -0.3 -2.4 6.9
Other retail stores 6.4 4.6 -7.3 12.4
Other industries 4.2 -0.5 1.8 -0.7
Residual (1) -0.9 -0.8 4.8 -2.8
Addenda: Ratios of private
inventories to final sales of
domestic business:
Private inventories to final sales 2.41
Nonfarm inventories to final
sales 2.21
Nonfarm inventories to final
sales of goods and structures 3.52
Change from
preceding
quarter
2005
I
Change in private
inventories 21.2
Farm -1.9
Mining, utilities, and construction 1.8
Manufacturing 21.3
Durable-goods industries 15.0
Nondurable-goods industries 6.6
Wholesale trade 0.3
Durable-goods industries 0.8
Nondurable-goods industries -0.6
Retail trade -1.4
Motor vehicle and parts dealers 10.5
Food and beverage stores -0.9
General merchandise stores -2.8
Other retail stores -7.6
Other industries 0.8
Residual (1) -0.5
Addenda: Ratios of private
inventories to final sales of
domestic business:
Private inventories to final sales
Nonfarm inventories to final
sales
Nonfarm inventories to final
sales of goods and structures
(1.) The residual is the difference between the first line and the sum
of the most detailed lines. It reflects the fact that chained-dollar
estimates are usually not additive, because the quantity indexes on
which they are based embody weights of more than one period.
NOTE. Real change in private inventories is from NIPA table 5.6.6B,
and ratios of private inventories to final sales of domestic business
are from NIPA table 5.7.6B.
Table 6. Real Exports and Imports of Goods and Services
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Change from preceding period
(percent)
2004 2005
II III IV I
Exports of goods and services 7.3 6.0 3.2 7.2
Exports of goods (1) 6.0 9.5 1.9 8.7
Foods, feeds, and and beverages -24.3 28.6 37.2 -5.0
Industrial supplies and materials 6.9 -0.1 1.9 1.9
Capital goods, except automotive 6.2 6.2 0.3 8.2
Automotive vehicles, engines,
and parts 8.2 34.8 -2.7 10.6
Consumer goods, except automotive 18.2 -0.7 21.9 16.4
Other 16.1 39.9 42.1 49.2
Exports of services (1) 10.2 -1.8 6.2 3.6
Imports of goods and services 12.6 4.6 11.4 9.1
Imports of goods (1) 13.0 5.0 14.9 9.8
Foods, feeds, and beverages 7.4 -10.1 17.1 2.0
Industrial supplies materials,
except petroleum and products 38.2 23.6 0.7 6.9
Petroleum and products 33.1 2.0 56.1 4.3
Capital goods, except automotive 30.6 14.0 9.3 0.9
Automotive vehicles, engines,
and parts 10.1 3.2 -4.3 5.8
Consumer goods, except automotive 20.5 -9.8 27.8 16.8
Other -10.7 16.5 1.0 66.4
Imports of services (1) 10.6 2.8 -5.2 5.3
Addenda:
Exports of agricultural goods -19.1 24.6 27.2 -4.5
Exports of nonagricultural goods 8.5 8.4 0.2 9.8
Imports of nonpetroleum goods 20.9 5.4 9.8 10.7
Contribution to percent change
in real exports and imports
(percentage points)
2004 2005
II III IV I
Exports of goods and services 7.3 6.0 3.2 7.2
Exports of goods (1) -4.19 6.52 1.36 6.06
Foods, feeds, and and beverages 1.35 1.21 1.48 -0.23
Industrial supplies and materials 1.14 -0.02 0.33 0.33
Capital goods, except automotive 1.75 1.73 0.08 2.24
Automotive vehicles 
