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The sliding exchange rate established by predecessor Hipolito Mejia's administration took the value of the Dominican peso against the dollar from 16 to 1 in the year 2000 to more then 50 to 1 by mid-2004. The result was a disorderly environment, with sharp increases in prices for basic goods and services, a severe energy crisis, the collapse of three of the principal banks in the Dominican Republic, due to distortions that peaked in that time period, and high levels of corruption.
The strategy of Fernandez's administration centers on fiscal discipline and in re-establishing confidence in the economy. Already, the government has obtained the appreciation of the Dominican peso due to the reduction in the dollar's prime rate, and has been sustained until recently in a range of 27 to 29 points.
Against the framework of this strategy, one of the first objectives of the Fernandez government was to re-establish relations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which had been interrupted on two consecutive occasions during the previous administration when it failed to comply with essential goals. This move paved the way for re-programming of the external debt and the re-establishment of trust and international credit.
ADJUSTMENT AND COMPENSATION
The agreement with the IMF forced the adoption of certain measures for economic adjustments, which included fiscal reforms to lower the elevated deficit in the public sector. Among the measures adopted by the Dominican government, it is worth noting the increase in Transference of Goods and Services (ITBIS) tax from 12% to 16%; the application of a tax on advertising, and the increase of the exchange commission, a legal responsibility which applies to imports. Public spending was cut, and a government salary cap was implemented. Also, the Liquid Natural Gas (LNP) subsidy, a heavy budgetary burden for the state, was eliminated for the commercial and industrial sectors, and fuel prices were adjusted.
However, these actions did not have enough impact to ensure drastic price reductions as expected, in spite of the slide of the dollar rate against the peso. The government adopted additional compensatory measures, such as re-enforcing certain social policies and generating social assistance programs. For example, "Comer is Primero" (To Eat is First) guarantees a percentage of people with limited resources access to basic needs. A school breakfast program was expanded, and a propane gas subsidy for home use and public transportation was retained.
Another measure that has had great impact is the revival of the electricity sector with a financial recuperation plan directed at increasing energy sources. This plan was carried out with assistance from the World Bank. Also, the economy ministry applied itself to reconciling debt between different agents of the sector.
The administrator of the Dominican Corporation of State Electrical Companies, Radhames Segura, said that the government supports the installation of two carbon mineral plants, made in the United States with a capacity of 600 megawatts in each, to stabilize electrical service and reduce consumer costs.
TRANSFORMATION OF ECONOMIC VARIABLES AND AGREEMENT WITH THE FUND
During an event with the Council of the Americas, the technical secretary and economic adviser of the Dominican Republic president, Temistocles Montas and Julio Ortega, illustrated the active process of transforming economic variables. Taking as a reference numbers handed down from the previous administration, both public officials laid out an optimistic picture, showing the reduction of the Public Sector Consolidated Deficit from 7.3% to 6.8%, and the doubling of the real gross domestic product from 1.0% to 3.5% in 2005.
Also, they pointed to a reduction of the annual inflation rate, which is expected to go from 45% to 9%, a difference of 36%. The central bank's interest rate has been dramatically reduced, and all backlogs on external debt service, which had reached $230 million, have been eliminated. An important factor was the reduction of capital flight, from $2.204 billion to 2.019 billion.
The new numbers also illustrate the restructuring of the financial sector, with the objective of crystallizing the agreement with the IMF with measures such as new fiscal reforms and a financing strategy; laws to reform the government's financial administration; strengthening the autonomy of the fiscal administration and the supervision of the financial system, among others. This includes new measures to re-enforce the supervision and control of private banks.
With this package, the Caribbean country's government met the quantitative goals established by the stand-by agreement signed in January 2005 with the IMF, effectively allowing growth of the gross domestic product at 3.3% in the October-December trimester in 2004 and at 4% in the January-March trimester of 2005, according to official figures.
GROWTH AND EXPECTATIONS
In March 2005, a six-month fiscal surplus was registered equal to 0.9% of the annual gross domestic product, in contrast to the 0.6% deficit previously seen. The appreciation of the exchange rate in March of this year in relation to August 2004 was of 32%, which has increased optimistic expectations: In the most recent version of the letter of intent with the IMF, new goals were established for economic growth for the rest of the year, from 2.5% to 3.5%, and the inflation rate is expected to drop from 13% to 9%.
In accordance with its agreement with international risk managers, and especially after the restructuring of its debt with the Paris Club, the Dominican Republic was able to work again with international bondholders and private banks. As a result, the country has breathing room on its external debt service of almost $1 billion during the current year and part of 2006.
On several occasions, the economic authorities have emphasized the fact that the government is bent on stimulating sustained economic growth as a way to reduce poverty. Tourism is one of the most important industries for the economy, growing 9.4% in the first trimester of the year. Also worth noting is the telecommunications industry, which has grown 19.7% in this period.
The Dominican Republic, nestled in the heart of the Caribbean and occupying two-thirds of the island of Santo Domingo, is one of the area's dominant tourist destinations. While it has a large number of lodging choices, it still has virgin areas that could be used for ecological and adventure tourism. In the traditional tourist points of interest to the north and south of the country, surrounded by beautiful beaches, the hotel chains compete in the "all inclusive" system, which has seen considerable influx of tourists for the greater part of the year.
In the main cities, such as the capital, Santo Domingo, and in Santiago, there are numerous cultural attractions and festivals. Major highways, many of which were built or improved during the last Fernandez administration as an incentive to internal tourism, make travel accessible.
In other areas of the economy, entrepreneurial associations report that commercial activities are "vigorous," with higher sales and competitive prices. The Dominican Federation of Retailers and the Dominican Association of Store Importers confirmed the cited rates in the Central Bank's quarterly report, which ascertains that commercial activity grew 11.6%.
Between March and April, the private sector saw turnover of DR $1,000 million (US$35.7 million). The industrial sector grew 5.9%, exports were up by 2.45%, and farming grew 3.7% in spite of Mother Nature's challenges.
Eddy Martinez, director of the Export and Investment Center, announced a new export strategy based on the President's vision of a country with a more modern productive base, oriented toward innovation, capacity and employment in the emerging information technology sector. The aim is to penetrate new markets in the United States, the European Union and Asia with the export of non-traditional and high-tech products.
He set a goal of attracting $5 billion in foreign investment over a four-year term, at the rate of $1.25 million per year. All of this would be accomplished by installing modern infrastructure in the telecommunications sector and training a large segment of the population in English, enabling them to contact companies that can invest in the Dominican Republic in the area of technology, such as robotics and microelectronics. The Cybernetic Park, located near the international airport of the Americas, east of Santo Domingo, will be relaunched.
Fernandez has focused special attention on strengthening and improving education, initiating education reform, while also establishing agreements with U.S. and Europeans universities to facilitate scholarships for Dominican students seeking bachelor's, master's and doctorate degrees. To this extent, agreements have been formalized with the University of Illinois in Chicago and the Stevens Institute in New Jersey.
FREE TRADE: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
Due to its proximity, the United States is the Dominican Republic's principal commerce partner. About 80% of Dominican exports go to U.S. markets, under the Caribbean Basin Initiative provisions of preferential access. The Dominican Republic is part of DR-CAFTA (the free trade agreement between the United States, Central America and the Dominican Republic).
Under President Fernandez's leadership, all productive sectors, the congress and political parties have begun intense consultation to generate the internal conditions needed to place the country in a competitive position, adopting measures of fiscal equality and helping reduce production costs. The government is sponsoring fiscal reforms that would eliminate blocks in the productive sector, as well as reduce the cost of electricity with new plants that have less-expensive operating costs. The president of the senate, Andres Bautista, from the opposing Revolutionary Dominican Party (PRD), affirmed that once the productive apparatus is adjusted, the congress will approve DR-CAFTA as soon as possible.
PRESIDENCY OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC Press Office Tel: 809-695-8135 www.presidencia.gov.do
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK www.banreservas.com.do
CENTRAL BANK www.bancentral.gov.do
DEPARTMENT OF INTERNAL REVENUE www.dgii.gov.do
DEPARTMENT OF CUSTOMS www.dga.gov.do
SECRETARY OF TRADE AND COMMERCE www.seic.gov.do
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