Sporting News, The: Don't get caught staring at the ceiling in the corner market

Ceilings and floors are primary concerns for architects. Even team architects. The best a player can be, in scoutspeak, is his "ceiling." The worst he can be is his "floor."

Looking at the 2004 cornerbacks class, Chris Gamble of Ohio State probably has the highest ceiling. If he fulfills all his potential, he could be the most dazzling of a pretty bright group. Dunta Robinson of South Carolina has the highest floor. He's the safest cornerback, the player who most assuredly will not be a bust.

Robinson was a much better college cornerback than Gamble, so he is more of a known commodity. The NFL coach who drafts Robinson will sleep well knowing he is drafting a physical corner with body control, quickness and speed--he ran a 4.34 40-yard dash at the Combine. On tape, his instincts and toughness are unmistakable.

So, at times, is his lack of height. At 5-10 5/8, Robinson will be shorter than a lot of the receivers he covers.

At 6-1 1/4, Gamble has rare height for a cornerback. And he has excellent athleticism to go with his size. What's more, he has a knack for playing the ball in the air. Even though he ran a 4.50 40-yard dash at the Buckeyes' pro day, Gamble showed suddenness and smoothness in other drills.

Watch enough tape of Gamble, however, and you'll see him get beat just about every way possible. He bites on double moves, gets picked, gets turned around, guesses wrong and gets run by. What's more, he doesn't get his uniform dirty unless he has to. His stock might have fallen a bit because of the 40 time, but scouts still are enchanted with him because his ceiling is cathedral high.

"Gamble lives up to his last name," Ravens director of player personnel Phil Savage says. "He's a supreme athlete, very smooth. He's almost a developmental corner because he hasn't played the position that much. Robinson, on the other side, has been a solid kid and productive player. I would think Gamble would go higher, but Robinson would be the safest."

Which is more important, Gamble's ceiling or Robinson's floor? Teams need to carefully consider both. Savage, in his reports to his team, sometimes covers the worst a player could be as well as the best.

"We always look at the worst a player can be," Colts general manager Bill Polian says. "You want to make sure you're spending the pick wisely. You want to measure the downside so you know how to deal with it if it comes. We say, 'No big hits, no big misses.'"

Before the 2002 draft, Polian discussed the floor of an undersized defensive end with coach Tony Dungy and personnel director Dom Anile. All agreed that even if the player was too short to be an every-down end, he would be an excellent designated pass rusher. The Colts, to the surprise of many, drafted him with the 11th overall pick and subsequently discovered the ceiling was plenty high for 6-0 Dwight Freeney.

With a high draft pick, avoiding the bust takes priority over gambling for greatness. That's why Robinson should be picked ahead of Gamble in the first round.

As the rounds go by, the ceiling becomes more important. The lower the pick, the fewer safe choices are available. A general manager who swings for the fences with every pick ends up with a batting average somewhere near the Mendoza line--and a request to clean out his office. He has to know when to pick his spots.

Before the 2003 draft, the Bears strongly considered two cornerbacks, Eugene Wilson of Illinois and Charles Tillman of Louisiana-Lafayette. "Tillman had more high-end potential," Bears general manager Jerry Angelo says. "We felt good about a lot of things with Tillman, but there were still some unknowns. The contingency plan is we felt he could be a good safety if he couldn't make it at corner. We felt Wilson was safer. But he was a little smaller, a hair slower."

The Bears gambled on Tillman with the 35th pick in the draft, and Wilson went to the Patriots with the 36th pick. Both became productive starters as rookies, Tillman at cornerback and Wilson at safety. But it appears choosing Tillman was a wise gamble.

One of the most difficult aspects of scouting is envisioning how a college player can improve in the NFL, as Tillman did. But it's a critical piece of an evaluation. "Generally speaking, the floor is more important than the ceiling, but you have to be able to see a player's upside," Patriots coach Bill Belichick says. "There are a lot of guys who are good football players in this league who didn't come into the league as good football players."

The trap that some talent evaluators fall into is focusing on weaknesses and failing to give enough consideration to a player's ceiling. "You can find something wrong with everybody," says former Packers general manager Run Wolf, now a consultant for the Browns. "Some people probably think Julia Roberts is ugly. We tried to stress the positives without going so far as to say, 'If he did it once, he can do it again.'"

Between ceilings and floors is a lot of room for error.

SPEED READS

* Donovan McNabb is about to become a considerably better quarterback--or he is about to become considerably more unpopular in Philadelphia. Either way, having Terrell Owens to throw to is going to have a major impact on McNabb's career with the Eagles. It's difficult to envision a wide receiver of Owens' ability not raising McNabb's level of play.

* Jon Gruden conducts his personnel business an awful lot like Daniel Snyder conducts his. Given their mutual interest in fading veterans and roster churning, it's not too difficult to imagine Gruden and Snyder working together at some point.

* If I were a general manager, I would be very interested in signing former Bucs safety John Lynch--assuming Lynch can pass a physical. Last year, Lynch's play slipped, but he might be able to reverse the slide with improved health this season. And even if he can't, Lynch still would have a tremendous impact on some team's locker room in 2004.

M@IL BONDING DAN POMPEI ANSWERS YOUR QUESTIONS

Which would be the better move for Dallas--to pursue Corey Dillon in a trade or take a chance on either Greg Jones or Chris Perry in the draft?

Paul Oxley, Honolulu

Paul: None of the above. If I were running the Cowboys, I would not be interested in the enigmatic Dillon, even though he is a gifted back who can contribute for at least another couple of years. I also would not spend the 22nd pick on running back Greg Jones of Florida State or Chris Perry of Michigan when superior players certainly will be available. I would consider trading up for a shot at Oregon State running back Steven Jackson or Virginia Tech's Kevin Jones if it didn't appear one would fall to No. 22. If that doesn't work out, I would wait until the second or third round and hope to get a back such as Greg Jones or Maurice Clarett. Can you imagine Bill Parcells and Clarett together?

E-mail: dpompei@sportingnews.com

INSIDE DISH

By DAN POMPEI

The rumor that's speed-dialing its way around the NFL is the Chargers' initial evaluations have Ben Roethlisberger rated as the top quarterback in the draft, ahead of Eli Manning. What the Chargers have to wrestle with, should they decide to keep the first overall pick and select a quarterback, is this: Can they pass up a Manning and live to tell about it? Trading WR David Boston last week also leaves the team with a bigger need at receiver than at quarterback and could give the Chargers an out. By selecting WR Larry Fitzgerald or Roy Williams, the Chargers could minimize the criticism that would result from passing on Manning.... Before completing their trade for Boston, the Dolphins wanted to know that he would be willing to go along with the program. Boston made it clear he was very willing, especially if Miami receivers coach Jerry Sullivan was involved. Sullivan was Boston's position coach with the Cardinals in 2001 and '02. Boston, whose weight ballooned to 258 pounds with the Chargers, pledged he would get down to 230 for the Dolphins. In 2001, Boston's best season, his weight was in the 230 range. He also made a commitment to participate in the Dolphins' offseason program, which is a first for him. He didn't participate in the Cardinals' or Chargers' offseason programs. And finally, he promised he would let his play say more than his words.... RB Garrison Hearst still might be a member of the 49ers if not for the tension between Hearst and Kevan Barlow. Hearst and FB Fred Beasley, who are solid professionals, resented what they perceived as a lack of professionalism in the younger Barlow and did not get along with him. When the 49ers made a contractual commitment to Barlow, it meant Hearst would have to take a pay cut and a reduced role. Playing second fiddle to Barlow was not something Hearst could stomach, and the 49ers felt it was better for team chemistry to let Hearst go.... Colts owner Jim Irsay disputes the notion that Peyton Manning's new contract will put a salary cap squeeze on his team after the 2005 season. The way the contract stands now, Manning's cap charge for 2006 is $17.7 million, according to NFL Players Association figures. But the Colts plan to convert a 2006 roster bonus into a signing bonus, which would reduce Manning's cap hit to about $11 million. And how did Irsay, whose team ranks 32nd in the NFL in stadium revenue, come up with Manning's $34.5 million signing bonus? The money is going straight from Irsay's pocket to Manning's. Irsay had to liquidate personal investments to pay his quarterback.... Commissioner Paul Tagliabue is pushing NFL teams to have a player from overseas on their training camp rosters this year. It could be mandatory by 2005. Having a player from another continent in every training camp would expand the league's global presence and could give a shot in the arm to NFL Europe. The developmental league, which is Tagliabue's baby, remains on life support. The hope is that eventually one of the players from overseas will make an NFL team and the league then can begin to develop its own Ichiro Suzukis and Yao Mings.