Sporting News, The: To know list: 7 greens hit in regulation

(1) CARMELO vs. LeBRON

Which young superstar will be first to win big?

In the end, things went better than expected for the Nuggets and Cavaliers, who won just 17 games apiece last season. The Cavs stayed in the playoff chase until April, and the Nuggets were in the thick of the fight in the last week of the season.

With franchise anchors LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony in place, the teams' situations have gotten much better. James is likely to win rookie of the year, but Anthony can take solace--his franchise is set up for more success in the years to come than the James gang.

In the short term, Anthony is surrounded by better talent, beginning with general manager Kiki Vandeweghe---he remade the Nuggets last summer while his counterpart in Cleveland, Jim Paxson, dawdled. By the time Paxson put the right team around James, the Cavs were off to an 11-26 start. Andre Miller has been solid as the Nuggets' point guard, with Earl Boykins an excellent backup. Shooting guard Voshon Lenard was one of the league's smartest signings, and the team has Nene locked up at power forward. The team will need a center if Marcus Camby opts out of his contract and could be looking for a coach if Vandeweghe does not believe Jeff Bzdelik is the right guy.

In the long term, too, the Nuggets are in good shape. There are no bad contracts, and Denver will have more than $15 million in cap space this offseason. Big-time stars such as Steve Nash and Rasheed Wallace could be targeted, or Vandeweghe could sign a handful of moderately priced players and maintain the team's payroll flexibility.

Cleveland will have cap space, but only about $8 million. It will need it--the roster is unsettled, and the team's late collapse exposed a lack of depth. Eric Williams was Paxson's most important addition, but he is a free agent. Carlos Boozer needs an extension, and the team must decide whether Jeff McInnis (who wore out welcomes with the Blazers and with the Clippers) is its point guard. Another decision will have to be made on center Zydrunas Ilgauskas, who is entering a contract year.

Cavs fans should be wary of Paxson's ability to use the cap space. His main signings last summer--Kevin Ollie and Ira Newble--were utter failures. What's worse is that Paxson, for no apparent reason, signed both players for five years. Three players--DeSagana Diop, Dajuan Wagner and Tony Battle--have serious trouble staying healthy.

The consensus on James and Anthony is that James has the higher upside. That may be, but the Nuggets have the brighter future.--Sean Deveney

(2) ODDS AND ONE EVEN

Tips (unofficial, of course) on who will be picked No. 1

The NFL frowns on gambling on games, but not on gambling on players. Dan Pompei's odds on who will be the first player drafted April 24:

Even money

Eli Manning, QB, Mississippi

It has become apparent Manning is the best combination of high ceiling and high floor (see "Playing Over Their Heads"), and he plays the right position.

10:1

Robert Gallery, OT, Iowa

He probably is the best overall prospect at any position, but an offensive tackle doesn't win as many games as a quarterback.

20:1

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Pittsburgh

Teams usually shy away from taking a receiver first, and as good as Fitzgerald is, he isn't even the consensus top receiver.

40:1

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Miami (Ohio)

If you see him as the top pick, you are seeing the smoke screen and not the reality.

500:1

Mike Williams, WR, Southern California

You laugh, but it could happen if he runs the 40-yard dash in 4.2 seconds in a personal workout for some team.

Incalculable

Maurice Clarett, RB, Ohio State

His 40 time would have to be no higher than 3 seconds flat.

(3) PARITY AND BASEBALL

Anybody can win! Well, not really

The standings after one week rarely resemble the standings at the end of the season, but several perennial doormats are bidding to be the surprise team of 2004. Don't get too excited--their chances of achieving lasting success are slim.

Tigers, Their 4-0 start was especially impressive, considering they had lost--ahem--25 times last season before getting their fourth win. The Tigers benefit from playing in the weak A.L. Central, but their starting pitching remains hideous. Of their four major additions--Ivan Rodriguez, Carlos Guillen, Fernando Vina and Rondell White--at least two figure to get hurt, based on their track records.

Reds, Good to see Ken Griffey and Adam Dunn hit six home runs combined in the first five games and the starting pitchers go 4-1 with a 2.90 ERA at the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. The bullpen remains strong even after the trade of Chris Reitsma, but it's difficult to imagine the rotation holding together, even with potential reinforcements at Class AAA.

Brewers, Winning three of four in St. Louis was a nice way to start the season, and the Brewers--11th in the N.L. in runs last season--look surprisingly potent on offense. Pitching will be their undoing; the rotation is full of hold-your-breath types, and the middle-inning relief is downright putrid.

Devil Rays. Manager Lou Piniella predicted his team wouldn't finish last, but the Rays aren't going to make significant progress in the stacked A.L. East. They will, however, continue to be a pain-in-the-butt opponent, as evidenced by their 2-2 start against the Yankees.

--Ken Rosenthal

(4) COME A LITTLE CLOSER--WE WON'T BITE

This is no for an NHL player to be avoiding reporters

It isn't easy being an NHL player, apparently. After he gave away Game 1 against the Lightning with a couple of turnovers, Islanders defenseman Eric Cairns chose not to speak to reporters. That same night, after a Game 1 victory over the Devils, Flyers goaltender Robert Esche first refused to speak to reporters, then was persuaded to speak by an attending league official. Esche now has decided he will accommodate reporters only after games the rest of the way.

Yeah, that'll work well if the Flyers go far. This league and its players need all the media attention they can get. The heroes and goats must stand in the spotlight so that marginal fans can get to know and like--or dislike-them, and come back to follow them whenever the next season starts. If the NHL and its teams can't get the players to take that responsibility, the NHL Players Association must. Kick them in the wallet After all, empty arenas will hurt a guy's bottom line more than a few tough questions will hurt his ego.--Kara Yorio

(5) OFF THE ICE

Little things go a long way

The Devils and the Flyers are riding buses up and down the New Jersey Turnpike in the most proximate first-round matchup of the NHL playoffs--it's 100 miles from Continental Airlines Arena to Philadelphia's Wachovia Center (according to Mapquest.com). The Sharks and Blues are traveling the farthest--it's 2,092 miles from St. Louis' Sawis Center to HP Pavilion. Over seven games, the difference in travel by the Game 7 visitors could be incredible--shy of 10,000 miles by about a typical workday commute.--K.Y.

(6) COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Grab your slide ride--it's time to talk about the BCS

Ah, the joys of spring. Blooming flowers, cleansing rain and BCS conference commissioners holed up in a hotel tinkering with College football's championship system. The latest rumors have the BCS dumping the confounding computer polls altogether. Forget it--without the computers, there is no BCS. But, says one commissioner, "You can devalue the computer polls."

Two methods of accomplishing that will be debated when the BCS commissioners meet in Phoenix at the end of this month: 1. using the computers only to break a tie between the two human polls, and 2. giving the media, coaches and computer polls a weighted value.

Also discussed will be how to determine the matchup of a fifth BCS game. The Gator Bowl in Jacksonville is the favorite to be named host of the fifth game, which still has no parameters. The fifth game could end up hosting the national title contest once every other BCS rotation. In other words, the new howl might not get the title game until year nine of the next BCS deal.--Matt Hayes

(7) GOLF

Lefty gels his major--now who gets the monkey?

Tom Kite did it memorably. Davis Love III and David Duval, too. But the best player to rip that never-won-a-major monkey off his back and beat it with his putter before a wildly approving crowd can only be 2004 Masters champion Phil Mickelson.

In the time-honored spirit of media negativity, who succeeds Lefty as golf's finest player never to win a major? Well, the only player in the TSN book 50 Greatest Golfers who doesn't have a major title is Colin Montgomerie (No. 43). But there's no sense piling on the often piled-upon Monty, who's clearly past his prime.

Who, then? According to TSN's Golf 2004 rankings, the best players yet to win a major include Jerry Kelly (No. 5), Steve Flesch (8), Chris DiMarco (9), Len Mattiace (12) and Adam Scott (13). Bor-ring!

Perhaps it's Sergio Garcia? Nah, he has all of three wins on the PGA Tour. In other words, he's overrated--though not by us (we ranked him 19th going into the year).

Wait--I know who it is. Ladies and gentlemen, now wearing the Taylor Made vest and a really dingy monkey ... the pride of Elizabethtown, Ky., Mr. Kenny Perry (24). He's 43--older than Monty--but he got three of his seven Tour wins in 2003 and has three top 10 finishes in nine events in '04. Indeed, he's the guy.

The poor son of a gun.--Steve Greenberg