He's cornered, and he knows it. His team may as well be playing the fraternity flag football champions to begin the 2005 season--why should he even try to deny it? No matter how a coach dresses it up or plays it off, the first two weeks of September are usually Septembore in college football.
"I'm just worried about center snaps that early," admits the Big Ten coach.
We've heard all the excuses. Early losses can end a team's season, wreck its confidence, shatter its psyche. This is coachspeak in a nutshell. When so much can go wrong, anything positive is a beautiful, fortunate thing.
So count yourselves blessed. For the first time in a long time, there are four games in the first two weeks of the season that will dictate the course of the national title race. That's right, pal, national title race. Four games with five legitimate Rose Bowl contenders-Virginia Tech, Texas, Ohio State, Michigan and LSU--playing to stay alive for the right to lose to Southern California.
I'm kidding about that last part. Maybe.
Virginia Tech at N.C. State, September 4. Tech quarterback Marcus Vick returns against the nation's best defensive line and a gambling, turnover-producing unit. The Hokies, though, have two things in their favor: 1) Vick is ridiculously talented, and 2) the 'Pack will be breaking in new coordinators on both sides of the ball against a fast, physical team. A win would leave the Hokies with a good shot at going unbeaten until November, when they face their two primary obstacles: a home matchup against Miami and Virginia on the road in consecutive games. If they clear those hurdles, they'll have a spot in the first ACC championship game.
Texas at Ohio State, September 10, Just when it looks as though Texas finally will clear its head of Oklahoma-induced brain freeze (makes me queasy just writing it), Ohio State could end the Longhorns' national title hopes before we even reach the Texas State Fair. Unlike Michigan, Ohio State won't be foolish enough to play its safeties 10 to 12 yards off the line and blitz from the middle instead of the outside, which is why superman Texas quarterback Vince Young was able to break containment for a gazillion yards in the Rose Bowl. Texas better get multiple turnovers or it will roll into the OU game trying to salvage the season instead of steering toward Pasadena.
Notre Dame at Michigan, September 10. The key here: Notre Dame's season opener at Pitt a week earlier. A loss to Pitt would put more pressure on coach Charlie Weis and an Irish team that has enough talent to win a big game on the road (see: Tennessee, November 2004). Michigan has serious coverage issues in the secondary, and its front seven is full of underachievers. As poorly played as last year's matchup was, this will be one of the best of the season. Both teams in the 30s, defense an afterthought.
Arizona State at LSU, September 10. I've been saying it since signing day: LSU has as much talent as any team in the country--including USC. But did former coach Nick Saban damage quarterback JaMarcus Russell's confidence so deeply that the former megarecruit won't recover? If Russell's head is clear, he's Vince Young with 25 more pounds and a fantastic, accurate arm. ASU can score and is surprisingly physical (ask Purdue). If Russell struggles in his first big game, the Tigers won't escape as they did in last year's opener against Oregon State.
INSIDE DISH
Say what you want about Ron Zook's coaching ability, but the guy can flat-out recruit. As Illinois, new coach, he already has made serious inroads in Chicago and recently beat Ohio State in the competition for QB Isiah Williams. Zook also has a commitment from Chris James, the state's top receiver. The next key recruit for Illinois is Demetrius Jones, one of the nation's top five quarterback prospects and a teammate of James. Zook is going head to head with new Notre Dame coach Charlie Weis for Jones, who wasn't even considering illinois until Zook was hired. * Remember this name: Jermaine Filer. He'll be one of the nation's top freshmen, even though he hasn't showed up on any of the recruiting boards. Filer was among the state of Florida's best receivers in 2003 but couldn't land an offer because of academic issues. He signed with Marshall, sat out last season and has been impressive in summer workouts. Former Marshall coach Bob Pruett once called Filer (6-4, 220) a "Randy Mess type." * It now appears as though Florida State DT Brodrick Bunkley, a potential All-American, has made enough strides academically to play in the fall. That's big news for the 'Noles, who lost projected starting DT Clifton Dickson to academics last month and are depleted at the position. The tackle spot is the only weakness on a stout defense, and the run defense will suffer if MLB Buster Davis is preoccupied with shaking blocks from interior linemen. * The loss of G Jeff Byers (hip) for this season has USC in scramble mode to replace its most technically sound lineman. The plan is to move T Taitusi Lutui to guard, but he has struggled to keep his weight down and a move inside would require the 370-pounder to drop about 20 pounds.
(S) Get prepped for the 2005 season with TSN's College Football Preview, which gives analysis of all 119 Division I-A teams. Find it at newsstands or order by phone at 800-825-8508 or online at sportingnews.com/books/cfootball.
MATT THAYES
mhayes@sportingnews.com
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