DON'T EXPECT THE NFL TO hold up the NFC West as its shining example of brilliant play. Last year it was one of the league's weakest divisions, and things won't change much in 2005.
The San Francisco 49ers were the bottom-feeders, finishing 2-14 to "earn" the top pick in the 2005 draft. The dismal season led to the firing of coach Dennis Erickson, who was replaced by Mike Nolan.
The 2004 season brought yet another double-digit-loss total to the Arizona Cardinals, although they did show signs of life under first-year coach Dennis Green. If free-agent quarterback Kurt Warner can capture his old magic in '05, Arizona might start to turn itself around.
The St. Louis Rams reached the playoffs last season--but with a mediocre 8-8 record--and defeated the Seattle Seahawks in the first round. Still, the Rams make too many mistakes and rarely play consistently.
Seattle never has been able to live up to its potential, and that includes last year when it took the division title. The Seahawks lost all three of their games to the Rams, and those scars may linger in 2005. However, the Seahawks still have the kind of talent to put together a dominant season. If coach Mike Holmgren finally figures a way to get this team to play consistently, Seattle could change the perception of the NFC West.
Here's how the division stacks up:
1. Seattle Seahawks
Where they left off: The Seahawks won this division with a 9-7 record but then fell to the Rams in the playoffs. While Holmgren has made this team respectable over the years, he hasn't been able to accomplish anything memorable. There's significant pressure on him to do more with this team.
New faces: The Seahawks added cornerback Andre Dyson during free agency. The former Tennessee Titan is a solid cover man and a fine tackler; he should be an upgrade for the defense. The Seahawks made a couple of significant moves in bringing in wide receivers Jerome Pathon and Joe Jurevicius. Neither is a star, but both can catch the ball consistently, something that established receivers like Darrell Jackson have been unable to do. Second-round draft pick Lofa Tatupu, a middle linebacker from Southern Cal, is instinctive and should make a contribution right away.
X's and O's: This team is going through a major locker-room metamorphosis. Linebacker Chad Brown was released in the offseason, and defensive end Chike Okeafor signed with the Cardinals after leading the team in sacks. The Seahawks are hoping to tighten things up defensively after ranking 26th in total yards allowed and 27th in first downs allowed.
Coaching/management: In the fast-paced world of the NFL, the Seahawks can't seem to make any progress. Yes, they won the NFC West last year, but they had a worse record than they did the year before in winning the wild card. Holmgren has not had a playoff victory since taking over this team in 1999, and the clock is ticking.
Why they'll finish first: The Seahawks have a superb running back in Shaun Alexander and a fine quarterback in Matt Hasselbeck. If they can just find a way to beat the Rams, they have a chance to finally take that next step and become a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
2. St. Louis Rams
Where they left off: The Rams finished 8-8 but still managed to reach the playoffs. After they beat Seattle in their playoffs opener, reality hit like a ton of bricks, as the Falcons buried them, 47-17, in the divisional round.
New faces: The Rams, as usual, have all kinds of problems on the defensive side, which they tried to address through free agency. Veteran linebackers Chris Claiborne and Dexter Coakley were brought in to add significant speed to the defense. The Rams drafted offensive tackle Alex Barron from Florida State in the first round; he has an excellent chance to flourish opposite Pro Bowl left tackle Orlando Pace.
X's and O's: Head coach Mike Martz is at his best when it comes to offensive game-planning. Not only does he have tremendous talent to work with in wideout Torry Holt, quarterback Marc Bulger, and running back Steven Jackson, he is very good at thinking outside the box and finding ways to isolate his players' strengths on his opponents' weaknesses.
Coaching/management: For all of his smarts, Martz takes unnecessary chances and often puts his team in a hole. He also has problems relating to his players--just look at his frayed relationship with offensive tackle Kyle Turley--and his team doesn't operate on an even keel.
Why they'll finish second: The Rams are still a very solid offensively, even if future Hall of Fame running back Marshall Faulk has slowed significantly. Despite their flaws on defense, they have what it takes to challenge Seattle for supremacy in the NFC West.
3. Arizona Cardinals
Where they left off: At 6-10, which pretty much was par for the course. Still, they played much better than usual with Green now at the helm, and the presence of wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald and defensive end Bertrand Berry gave Arizona legitimate threats on both sides of the ball.
New faces: Green decided to roll the dice and bring in Warner at quarterback. He is hoping Warner can show the accuracy and leadership he did in taking the Rams to the Super Bowl title in the late 1990s. Then again, if Warner performs at the lower level of the past few seasons, Arizona will be in trouble. Okeafor signed a five-year, $25 million contract; he should be a solid pass-rushing presence. Taking him away from division-rival Seattle makes his signing doubly valuable. Rookie running back J.J. Arrington has explosive speed and could give the team the ground presence it needs.
X's and O's: Green has his share of critics, but there is no doubt he can put together a solid offense. He won consistently on the Minnesota Vikings with a multitude of quarterbacks (Warren Moon, Brad Johnson, Jeff George, Daunte Culpepper), though his reputation is on the line with the 34-year-old Warner. The defense played much more aggressively last year and should continue that trend in 2005.
Coaching/management: Green's unflagging confidence in his players is perhaps his best quality. Defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast is a real asset; Arizona's defense is moving in the right direction under him.
Why they'll finish third: The Cardinals have been down seemingly forever, but things appear to be changing. This division is ripe for the taking, and if everything falls into place, Arizona has a chance to rise up and win the title. We think, however, that they're not quite ready to do that.
4. San Francisco 49ers
Where they left off: The 49ers were dead-last in the NFL with a 2-14 record. After owner John York brought in Nolan as the new coach, the rebuilding process began with the drafting of quarterback Alex Smith as the No. 1 pick overall.
New faces: The 49ers have a new look and a new approach. Smith will not have the luxury of sitting back and learning from an established veteran. He needs to grasp Nolan's system immediately and come out firing. Smith likely will have some difficult moments, especially in the first half of the season. Rookie running back Frank Gore, a third-rounder, could be a significant addition; he has the potential to push veteran Kevan Barlow and possibly steal some carries. Free-agent left tackle Jonas Jennings signed a seven-year, $36 million contract and will be expected to be an anchor on the line.
X's and O's: Nolan is sharp, smart and innovative, but, really, football is a simple sport. If his offensive line does not block and his rookie quarterback does not perform, the team won't win. Although the 49ers will continue to operate the West Coast offense, Nolan believes the key to success is finding a consistent running game. Look for the Niners to use a 3-4 scheme on defense, one that employs multiple looks.
Coaching/management: Nolan does not seem like a rookie head coach. He comes from a coaching family--his father Dick coached the Niners from 1968 through '75--and previously served as defensive coordinator of the Baltimore Ravens, so he knows how a defense should perform.
Why they'll finish fourth: The Niners finished near the bottom last year in most major statistical categories. The NFL is a league where teams can rise quickly from the bottom, but that's not going to happen with the Niners, at least not this year.
Five Players to Watch
Larry Fitzgerald, wide receiver, Cardinals. Fitzgerald had a fine rookie year in 2004, catching 58 passes for 780 yards and eight touchdowns. He has the moves and hands to become a superstar in 2005.
Kevan Barlow, running back, 49ers. San Francisco committed to Barlow prior to the 2004 season, but he did not dominate. In order for Mike Nolan's West Coast offense to be successful, Barlow must come through.
Torry Holt, wide receiver, Rams. No wide receiver has better moves than Holt, which is a testimony to his hard work. He is the engine that drives the Rams.
