New Statesman: CHARLIE WHELAN'S racing card - speculation on results of UK election

The Bet: How many seats will the parties win?

Labour Party 391-397

Conservative Party 194-200

Liberal Democrats 194-200

Source: Sporting Index

Sporting Index has launched a competition for political journalists, offering a weekend in Paris to the winner. It has made a number of predictions, and all we have to do is say whether we would buy or sell. You buy if you think Labour's majority will be higher than the prediction, and sell if you think lower.

Sporting predicts a Labour majority of 139. Its actual price on this is 124-134, but even at 139 I would buy. On the current spread, there's better value to be had on how many more seats Labour will have than the Tories, quoted at 193-203. Last time round, it was 254-so again, I would buy. The second prediction concerns the turnout, which Sporting thinks will be 66.5 per cent. I would buy at this level, because I have more faith in the British electorate than the bookies.

The third prediction concerns the number of "lady MPs". Sporting says 108 will be elected. More in hope than expectation, I will buy "ladies" at that figure. Predicting the number of Liberal Democrats is more difficult, but Charlie Kennedy has promised me that the party will win more than 40 seats, so I'll buy Lib Dems at 37, the Sporting prediction.

Finally, we were asked by the bookies to say exactly how many seats Labour will win. Even though people sell every time the spread on Labour rises above 400, I am predicting 412 seats. The Tories may have had a good first week, but this is not reflected in the prices: Labour has moved up one seat since last week and the Tories' price remains unchanged (as do the polls). That does not mean there has been no betting: substantial amounts were wagered when the number of Tory seats fell to 190, and one punter has spent [pound]5,000 buying Tory seats in Scotland at two!