New Statesman: racing card - UK general elections, 2001, bookmakers odds

The Bet: How many seats will the parties win?

For the first time since the 1997 election, the bookies are beginning to think the unthinkable: that Labour could actually do better than last time. Forecasts of Labour seats have now gone above the 400 mark, and the Tories' well below 200. The Lib Dems have also seen movement in their price, having gone up for the first time since the book was made.

Last week, the bookies were predicting a majority of between 124 and 134, and this has now moved up a huge ten points on the spread. Ladbrokes actually has a 151-160 majority as 7-1 favourite. The Tory spin-doctors may be able to say that the polls are wrong, but they can't say the bookies are wrong, too. For the next Tory leader, the big money has been going on lain Duncan Smith, who has seen his odds slashed to 2-1 at Ladbrokes. Michael Portillo remains even-money favourite, with Ann Widdecombe slipping to 14-1.

At william Hill, all the big money is now pouring on to Labour. The bookies still predict a low turnout, but this makes the odds on a figure above 70 percent, at 12-1, worth a small punt. Prices are also emerging on individual seats, and it is here that the well-informed punter can make a killing. Sporting opened its spread on the number of votes that Martin Bell will get at 4,000-5,000, and was forced to move it up to 9,000-11,000 when big buyers came in. would sell at that level (had Bell had the bottle to stand against Mandelson, though, he would probably have won). said we'd get some silly bets once the election got underway. The silliest of the week was the 40-1 that Ladbrokes offered on Prescott releasing a "Boxercise" fitness video.

RACING CARD SUPPORTED BY

Victor Chandler

Labour Party 396-402

Conservative Party 184-190

Liberal Democrats 43-45

Source: Sporting Index