New Statesman: Racing card - bookies' odds on candidates to lead UK Tory Party

The Bet: Who will be the next Tory leader?

It looks certain that the final list of candidates for the Tory leadership will number five in total, now that Ken Clarke has finally decided to join the race. Ladbrokes immediately slashed racing card CHARLIE WHELAN odds when he announced he would be a candidate, and made him joint-second favourite with Michael Ancram.

For the first time in history, a bookie commissioned its own opinion poll of punters. It asked: which leader would make you most likely to vote Tory at the next election? Top, with 32 per cent, was Clarke, followed by Michael Portillo at 20 percent. Next came Ancram with 8 per cent, and the others came nowhere.

The big problem for Clarke is to get enough MPs' votes to qualify as one of the two candidates who can go forward for the ballot of party members. He has taken too long to enter the race. You must be quick when running for a party's leadership. Who in the media will forget Peter Mandel-son stalking the corridors of the Westminster press lobby punting his man only hours after John Smith's death?

A large section of the Tory party is looking for a "stop Portillo" candidate; most seem to have plumped for Ancram. However, Clarke is the man Labour fears most. His views on Europe are unacceptable to the majority of Tory MPs, but they should remember that there is unlikely to be a euro referendum in this parliament, so his stance won't matter.

Watch out for Portillistas voting for Ancram in the final MPs' ballot to ensure that Clarke does not make it. They know Portillo will easily get into the members' ballot, and so can vote tactically to ensure he fights the man he wants to. No wonder the bookies still put Portillo odds-on to win.

Michael Portillo    4-9
Kenneth Clarke      4-1
Michael Ancram      4-1
Iain Duncan Smith   7-1
David Davis        12-1
Source: Ladbrokes