Campaigns & Elections: Drugs, politics and gambling — did the voters succumb?

So what did the voter's decide - were they cautious as we had predicted or did they disregard the concerns of war, terrorism and the economy and do as they pleased? In short, "cautious" was the word of the day. On Election Day 2002, voters cast their ballots on 202 statewide ballot measures in 40 states and approved approximately 62 percent of them. Fifty-three were placed on the ballot by the people and 149 were placed on the ballot by the state legislatures. Of the measures placed on the ballot by the people, 47 percent were approved. This number is a little higher than the 100-year average of 41 percent.

In looking at the measures placed on the ballot by the state legislatures, the voters continued the trend of passing those at a higher percentage than citizen measures, by adopting almost 66 percent of them. This election was noticeable for many reasons, but one that stands out is the fact that there were 30 percent fewer initiatives on the ballot than 2000 and the fewest number since 1986.

So how did the top initiatives do?

Coming into this election cycle, those seeking to overhaul drug policy laws had enjoyed a tremendous winning record, but this year they suffered a clean sweep defeat on their statewide initiatives (they did win a local measure in Washington, DC and one in San Francisco). Ohio voters chose not to adopt Issue One, which would have allowed for the treatment instead of incarceration for non-violent drug offenders, while Nevadans chose to vote down Question 9, which would have legalized marijuana for recreational purposes. In one of the more surprising outcomes, voters rejected Proposition 203 in Arizona, which would have legalized medical marijuana.

Two other closely watched drug-related initiatives in South Dakota were both defeated: Amendment A, which would have allowed a criminal defendant to argue the merits of the law and be found innocent because the jury found the law itself to be bad public policy; and Measure 1, which world haved legalized industrial hemp (cannabis).

Many have argued that the reason this election cycle has proven to be more difficult for the movement than previous elections is due to the extraordinary step by John Walter (Bush's Drug Policy Advisor) and Asa Hutchison (head of the DEA) in actively campaigning against these measures. Regardless, there is little doubt that the drug policy overhaul movement will continue to utilize the initiative process.

Animal rights advocates fared well on Election Day. The animal protection movement emerged in the 1990s as a dominant issue at the ballot box. This election cycle was no exception. Voters in Oklahoma approved an initiative outlawing cockfighting while voters in Florida voted to ban the use of gestation crates for pregnant pigs. On the losing side was an Arkansas initiative that would have made cruelty to animals a class D felony instead of the current class A misdemeanor. The Florida win will help energize the movement to ban gestation crates across the country, leading to future ballot measures.

Another favorite at the ballot box has been education overhaul. Five initiatives are especially worth noting. In California, Arnold Swartzenegger's Proposition 49 won handily. The initiative will "increase state grant funds available for before and after school programs." This victory will no doubt give the "Terminator" the political prestige he wanted to launch his rumored gubernatorial campaign. In Colorado and Massachusetts voters decided on initiatives that would require children to be taught by using the English language in the classroom. These two initiatives follow wins on this issue in California and Arizona. The surprising thing about these two initiatives is where they won and lost. This issue, which is usually personified as a conservative issue, won handily in the liberal state of Massachusetts (Question 2) but lost in conservative Colorado (Amendment 31). Voters can't be expected to vote straight party ideology when voting on ballot measures.

Floridians dealt with two high profile education initiatives. Measure 8, which will require that "every four-year-old child in Florida be offered a high quality pre-kindergarten learning opportunity," won by a narrow margin as did Measure 9. That measure, which will "provide funding for sufficient classrooms so that there is a maximum number of students in public school classes" had become a big issue in the governor's race, with Democratic Bill McBride throwing his strong support behind it. Gov. Jeb Bush (R) was caught in an unfortunate candid moment saying that he had already thought of several "devious ways" to keep the measure from going into effect. Now that it's the law all eyes will no doubt be watching for the "devious" Bush to appear.

One of the biggest losers on Election Day was election overhaul. In California and Colorado, voters said no to initiatives that would have put in place what is commonly referred to as "same day voter registration." Three other Colorado initiatives are also worth noting. Voters rejected Amendment 29, which would haved changed the way candidates are placed on the primary ballot by requiring nominating petitions instead of relying on nominating conventions. Amendment 28, which would have allowed for mail ballot elections, was defeated as well. The third, Amendment 27, which would "reduce the amount of money that individuals and political committees can contribute," was victorious.

One of the more telling signs of the political feelings of the electorate was exemplified in Idaho, with voters giving a controversial endorsement to a measure that would abolish term limits in Idaho. However, this victory for state lawmakers is being overshadowed by persistent stories of voter confusion over which way to vote.

Several ballot measures dealing with expanding gaming or creating a lottery were put before the voters, but, as is usually the case, didn't fair well. As far as initiatives were concerned, Arizona was the hotbed. In that state, three initiatives were voted on that dealt with gaming. Propositions 200 and 202, which dealt with expanding Indian gaming and dictating where and how the proceeds should be divided, had mixed results. Proposition 200 was soundly defeated while Proposition 202 passed. The other initiative, Proposition 201 that would have allowed for "non-tribal gaming" in the state, was defeated overwhelmingly. In Idaho, voters decided to allow video gaming on Indian land and voters in North Dakota decided to "direct the legislative assembly to authorize the state to join a multi-state lottery."

So what about tax reform? Voters of Massachusetts voted down Question 1 that would have abolished their state income tax, while voters in Arkansas defeated an initiative that would have abolished certain taxes on their food and medicine.

How did legislative props do?

State legislatures are looking at ways to increase state revenues to fill budget deficits. In Tennessee, where lawmakers were hoping to establish a lottery, voters passed Amendment A-1. In Montana, South Carolina and Louisiana, where voters were asked to give lawmakers greater latitude in investing in the stock market, voters for the most part said no. With the exception of one measure in South Carolina, the voters told lawmakers that the stock market was too risky to be investing public funds. As to bonds, California adopted the largest bond measure in the state's history. Proposition 47 will raise $13 billion for an across the board overhaul of the state's public school facilities. Other bond measures across the country seamed to fare well also.

Voters also showed their resolve to maintain the norm with the defeat of two high profile measures in Oregon -- Measure 23 that would have called for universal health care and Measure 27 that would have called for the labeling of genetically modified foods.

Smoking was another area that voters spoke out on. In Florida, they adopted Amendment 6 that would ban smoking in all public places. In Missouri, they chose not to increase cigarette taxes, while in Arizona, voters decided to tax cigarettes at $1.18 a pack -- more than double the current rate.

As to social policy, not much was on the ballot this election cycle with the exception of banning same sex marriage in Nevada. Voters there chose once again (by law amendments must be voted on twice before becoming law) to adopt the ban.

Faced with uncertain economic times and the possibility of war, voters chose to be cautious -- though with one obvious exception: education overhaul. Other big ticket items, such as new road projects, they said, can wait until economic times are better.

M. Dane Waters is president of the Initiative & Referendum Institute. He can be reached at mdanewaters@iandrinstiture.org.